Cracking AA

[TheSnapper]

I can understand that point Rob. But

Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K

V good question ( I'd love you in my maths class )

short answer: yes

I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?

Villain is in a tough spot when we 4b, essentially its fold or jam for him and imho he very seldom, possibly even never bluffs us here.

So, what hands are in his 5b jamming range that fold when we 4b jam?

[Swinebag22]

I can understand that point Rob. But

Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K

V good question ( I'd love you in my maths class )

short answer: yes

I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?

Villain is in a tough spot when we 4b, essentially its fold or jam for him and imho he very seldom, possibly even never bluffs us here.

So, what hands are in his 5b jamming range that fold when we 4b jam?

I think I see where you are going here.
Are you saying that, by 4 betting (being prepared to fold) and giving the impression that you aren't folding (which putting a quarter of your stack in probably does) then the villain can only 5 bet the top end of his range?

I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let ithose hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

[TheSnapper]

I think I see where you are going here.
Are you saying that, by 4 betting (being prepared to fold) and giving the impression that you aren't folding (which putting a quarter of your stack in probably does) then the villain can only 5 bet the top end of his range?

Pretty much, if as I suspect villain only continues with something like QQ+,AKs,AKo irrespective of whether we jam or min 4b then we survive when we find the top of his range, without impacting on our bluff success rate.

I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let ithose hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

Given stack size and the tough spot we put villain in, a 5b bluff is super unlikely. Not saying it won't ever happen but its gonna likely be seldom enough to not be a significant factor.

[deanp27]

i think you are giving villains far too much credit, especially a $5 aggro-villain. In my experience the QQ, AK range is far too tight and i think they may 5bet bluff when they dont realise they are bluffing ie jam etc. But meh this depends on your type of aggro-donk. This is why is just prefer not to level myself against these guys and just jam it or fold

[Fatcatstu]

I like the fact that i am understanding what Brendan and Rob are saying for once, still to scared to read Nobles input though  :'(

Brian.

I raise, then i flat call, then i dont fold at any point, then i bink the river. Or i dont bink the river and i swear to never play online poker again as it is rigged.

[noble1]

I like the fact that i am understanding what Brendan and Rob are saying for once, still to scared to read Nobles input though .

lol 

Is villain Merged or Polarised? at villains stack depth and @ this buy in i'd favour Merged
A merged range contains only value hands [in villains mind] and and very few bluffs, these players will be less errr ahemmm competent than a polarised 3bettor, in a $5 mtt they view most of there hands as for value no matter what happens thus 4betting them will get very few folds, so we should only 4bet with our value hands, we have little to no fold equity with our 4bet bluffs against players like this..

Quote from: Swinebag22
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let those hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

as above - AQ AJ 88 etc in villains view/mind these are value hands, a player who only 3bets merged in their $5 mtt brain is only 3betting for value thus making 4bet bluffs pretty pointless...

fold to the 3bet we lose 2bb is ok, call for 3bb more with position with more equity against the whole of villains merged range is ok ev wise,
4bet bluffing or 4bet jamming will show the worst ev if u are going to judge solely on the maths...

[TheSnapper]

Quote from: Swinebag22
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let those hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

as above - AQ AJ 88 etc in villains view/mind these are value hands, a player who only 3bets merged in their $5 mtt brain is only 3betting for value thus making 4bet bluffs pretty pointless...

From this I glean that you have villain firmly in the “overrates hands and is 100% 3 betting for value so will never fold to 4 bet” category?

Provided as read in the OP we have….

Villain stats are 32/28

Now we don’t know what the sample size is but even so, that villains vpip and pfr are so close suggests to me that we are dealing with a somewhat competent player.

Also,

3bet 18%, he has 3b a couple of times from the button

Suggests we are not dealing with a level 1 “my cards are pretty” type player. So, we can be exploited and continue to fold to his many 3 bets, or we can adjust our range and play back at him.

Worst case we induce some action when we 4b a monster..

fold to the 3bet we lose 2bb is ok, call for 3bb more with position with more equity against the whole of villains merged range is ok ev wise,
4bet bluffing or 4bet jamming will show the worst ev if u are going to judge solely on the maths...

Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

[noble1]

bloody HUD lol , scrap the bloody thing
villain could be quite easily be getting hit hard by the deck... question for u Bren, can u recall ever playing a villain in a $5 mtt with a 18% 3bet stat over say 150 hands...  if say the sample is over 40 hands then villain has played 13 hands 7 of which would of been 3bets, are we saying that no one ever gets a good run of cards over 40 hands...
thats why i like to at least half the 3bet stat to at least get a approximation of what villains true 3bet% could/met be in cases where u dealing with such small sample sizes...

Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

your intuition maybe a little off    

there are plenty other stats to consider with that bloody HUD check the fold to 4bet etc.. i wish someone would start a thread on how to get reads without using a HUD   is it becoming a lost art?

DeanP made a valid point also don't u think?

[TheSnapper]

bloody HUD lol , scrap the bloody thing
villain could be quite easily be getting hit hard by the deck... question for u Bren, can u recall ever playing a villain in a $5 mtt with a 18% 3bet stat over say 150 hands...  if say the sample is over 40 hands then villain has played 13 hands 7 of which would of been 3bets, are we saying that no one ever gets a good run of cards over 40 hands...
thats why i like to at least half the 3bet stat to at least get a approximation of what villains true 3bet% could/met be in cases where u dealing with such small sample sizes...

Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

your intuition maybe a little off    

there are plenty other stats to consider with that bloody HUD check the fold to 4bet etc.. i wish someone would start a thread on how to get reads without using a HUD   is it becoming a lost art?

DeanP made a valid point also don't u think?

Of course, you make good points as does Dean. But both your points are largely predicated on categorizing the villain as a low level thinker. Yes sample size can be misleading especially for the 3b stat, but vpip and pfr become statistically significant very quickly.

If villain was 32/5 for example I'd certainly agree on your assessment but 32/28 vpip/pfr are a good indicator of an aggressive style, especially so when coupled with a high 3bet frequency.

It would take thousands of hands for villains fold to 4b stat to become anyway significant since we face a 4b so infrequently.

As for reads other than via Hud feedback, other than paying attention to villains play, we could check on OPR and see that villain has cashes of ~$55k and is certainly not your common-or-garden "$5 mtt brain"

[noble1]

ohhhhh u mean this guy - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/257650/ - marge147

a vital bit of advice imho Bren, Hero should check opr beforehand....      as to villains 3bet oop with that sizing @ his eff stack size - 3rd time is the charm  

i still think u r interpreting the hud stats to literally Bren   the most vital stat for the HUD is the number of hands stat, without it we won’t know whether or not we have a relevant sample size... the VPIP and PFR stats get close enough/converge enough to have a good idea of the approx true VPIP @ around the 30 to 50 hand area in cash games [thats my opinion btw]
but Mtts are in a whole different ballpark with stack sizes and table postion affecting it all... the extremes are easily spotted but defining player styles amongst the tags and lags is largely useless imo with small hand samples... positional stats along with any notes of hands seen would help... there can be a huge difference from a 3b range from the btn compared to the 3b sb range...

meh

[deanp27]

Yeah OPR'd him after and I'd probably just fold to the 3bet in all honesty or jam if we had some sort of history I could rely on.

In fact I think villain is playing the UKIPT next week on the same starting day as me, maybe I'll ask him what his 3b/5b jamming range is lol.

[noble1]

Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

the odds of flopping a four flush on the flop is - C(11,2)*39/C(50,3) = 10.94% or 8.1to1
the odds of flopping a straight draw for QJss is slightly less than what a lot of probability charts show, the reason for this is that they normally only show the 3combo hands... e.g TJ can flop QKX  Q9X  89X..... QJ only has 9T  KT for 2combos....
so the actual odds of flopping a straight draw for QJ are - 6.3% or 14.9to1 allowing for the one double gutshot 8outer of AT8
the chance of QJss flopping 2 pair, trips, straight, flush, full house, or quads is approx 5% or 19to1
the % or odds of actually flopping a straight and flush draw together is 1.2% or approx 82to1


the reason i show the above is to to try and show without to much maths what happens if we call the 3bet... the % chance of QJss flopping a flush draw or 8-out straight draw, (with no flush or straight), is approx 16%.........

3.25bb to call pre in position, villain will have approx 55000 behind when we call..........

if we call intending to only continue if we flop obviously 2pair+ , a flush draw and a straight draw what will the figures look like using the 100 times rule...?
21% of time on the flop we will pick up equity against even a narrow 3bet range of QQ+ AK ranging in the 13to15% area..

we miss the flop 79 times costing us 79x3.25bb = -256.75bb
we hit 2pair+ 5 times we will gain approx 37bb = +160bb if villain continues with the whole of his range if we rrai on the flop, the quandary is against QQ+ AK if we were to flop 2pair on a Ace rainbow flop eg - AQJ we would still have 47% equity a non Ace rainbow flop [77.45% of the time] but we hit 2pair we are 75% to win plus other scenarios, hence the gain only being approx but pretty near to being +160bb....

now the tricky part of working out the 16 times we flop a flush or straight draw but trying to allow for when an Ace or King will also flop [then the turn , river] ... what about the actions villain will take on a mulitude of flop textures KK for instance on a Ace flop? will he jam flop all in? check the flop? pot bet flop? 1/2 pot flop? etc etc...
after a bit of PM'ing on 2+2 and one individual trying to work it out on paper [i had go as well ] the general consenus was - ''why don't you use cardrunnersEV''  lol .... which i did after putting in various decision trees, different ranges and different actions on differing flop textures, the call is +EV by nearly 3.5bb, folding obviously is losing us 2bb...
if villains 3bet is wider then obviously its +ev to call, the scenario you suggest [4bet bluff] Bren where you literally take on trust the tracker 3bet% stat not allowing for position, amount of cards played or stack depth, it still seems a tad spewy to myself.. Putting/risking 25% of our stack doesn't seem optimal to me, villain has to be 3betting above 7% imo and folding hands like 99 or AQ which at his stack size to me means he will 5bet jam a good % of the time anyhows.. if say he his 3betting 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+ [74 combos] i'd argue he jams 43combos [TT JJ QQ KK AA AKs+o AQs] a vast amount of the time given his stack size.... that means he would fold just 42%, you need him to fold 45% to break even if re-raising to 22k[15450/34250]

I did my nut in trying to put into writing/numbers how to look at this Bren
so the lesson is - either be at a genius level at maths or use the above named program

[TheSnapper]

Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

Putting/risking 25% of our stack doesn't seem optimal to me,

I'll need to have a think about this post Mark but for now, my intuitive response/ focus is on this part specifically.

In a large field online mtt, is it possible to go really deep/ win if we adopt a strategy of only ever choosing the optimal move?

[noble1]

re-word optimal to -ev  considering the effective stack size...

In a large field online mtt, is it possible to go really deep/ win if we adopt a strategy of only ever choosing the optimal move?

the eternal debate   - the gigabet dilemma, will a minus ev move be plus ev in the future?... how do we value the trade off between expectation and risk? after all a poor person is much happier finding £100 than say a millionaire would be..
does whether or not we would take a certain risk ever depend on how many opportunities we will be given to play that situation/game? In particular, is it a fallacy to manage the risk in a unique/rare opportunity/situation differently because we are unable to reach the long run with it?
edit - ''can anyone win a mtt playing sub-optimal?''  - i'd say yes but not many, anyone can win a mtt right?
having the mix right is the goal i'd guess, mainly optimal with a dash of sub optimal
i suppose its in the realm of chip blocks Bren, will the gain or loss from the 4bet bluff make any difference?

I'll need to have a think about this post Mark

consume large amounts of alcohol Bren to help

[MintTrav]

i think you are giving villains far too much credit, especially a $5 aggro-villain. In my experience the QQ, AK range is far too tight and i think they may 5bet bluff when they dont realise they are bluffing ie jam etc. But meh this depends on your type of aggro-donk. This is why is just prefer not to level myself against these guys and just jam it or fold

I see what you did there.