Saturday Donkey

[noble1]

Seconditis today, Cole Harden and Saint Are finding one to good. The Game Changer and Baltimore Rock 3rd&4th meant a 10 point loss on the final day.

day1 +6 points
day2 +25 points
day3 -10 points

+21points for the festival , overall the fred now stands at +303.71 points.

I enjoyed the racing all week and a great effort from Many Clouds giving it his all yet again lumping 11-9 and a 8 year old as well. Next targets are the Craven Meeting mid-week and the Scottish Grand National next Saturday.

[noble1]

Newmarket April 15th
3.30 - European Free Handicap
Jungle Cat @10/1  1point win

4.05 - Nell Gwyn Stakes
Osaila @5/1  1point win

[noble1]

Lots of good racing today, although i"m not to sure we"ll see any superstars. John Gosden runs three interesting sorts today,
Faydhan in the Free Handicap, Lady Correspondent in the Nell Gywn and Golden Horn in the Feilden Stakes.
In order then my thoughts on the three -
Faydhan - a Guineas colt? an unusual prep for the Guineas. Fannan who should reappear in the Greenham to my eye looks his main hope for the 2000g. Granted in his only run to date Faydhan beat a future Acomb winner Dutch Connection by 6 lengths but breeding wise his pedigree has a heck of lot speed and not much stamina. Currently 4/11 , 2/5 ish for todays race i"ll chance his stamina doubts [imho ] and take him on with Jungle Cat, who has to step up but the current odds compensate for that.

Lady Correspondent - just the one career run, reportedly working well on the gallops, Moore booked to ride. Best watched for now imo but at Newbury Saturday keep a eye out for Jellicle Ball in the Fred Darling.

Golden Horn - just the one run towards the end of the season beating a nice Haggas runner - Storm the Stars, the two pulling 7 lengths away from the 3rd. GH has a Dante entry and at 2/1 ish wouldn"t be a bad bet today likewise Storm the Stars in the second last race today currently 15/8 ish. That will disappear rapidly if Golden Horn wins prior


In the last race of the day Luca Cumani runs Spiriting which is the current favourite thanks to Timeform who rate him 95"ish based on his Yarmouth run 2nd time out. The BHA differ in that view giving him a h/c mark of 79. Luca thinks he"s been underestimated but the market has took no chances..
http://www.lucacumani.com/news.php?id=115

[noble1]

Osaila won so the fred total overall currently stands at +307.71 points

Newmarket April 16th
3.30 - Abernant Stakes
Music Master @9/4  3point win
American Hope @16/1  1point win

[noble1]

Osaila won so the fred total overall currently stands at +307.71 points

Newmarket April 16th
3.30 - Abernant Stakes
Music Master @9/4  3point win
American Hope @16/1  1point win

Newmarket April 16th
2.55 - 3yo Trophy
Rocky Rider @7/2  1point win
Tannaaf  @7/1  1point win

4.40 - Earl of Sefton Stakes
French Navy @5/2  1point win

[nosey-p]

I had a good day yesterday with Bossy Guest 6/1, Montefalcon 9/2, Osaila 4/1, and Salt Island 7/1 hope today is jusy has good. The only one I have picked so far is Rocky Rider  

[noble1]

French Navy won @3/1 so the fred total overall currently stands at +304.71 points

Kool Kompany was a turn up, stamina no problem today in the Craven. Ivawood to win the 2000g is beginning to look quite likely with Hughesie gushing everytime he"s asked about him.

Newbury Friday and Saturday to target next plus Ayr and the Scottish National to look forward to.

[noble1]

Newbury 17th April
3.25 - Dubai Duty Free 3yo 7f Handicap
Capel Path @5/1  2point win

Sugar Boy is a danger given Gosden"s record but that wasn"t with Godolphin horses  Stoutey knows the street cry breed and he made his debut [Capel Path] at Newmarket with a typical teaching the ropes ride held up. Next run teach from the front, 3rd run he knows his job and beats a nice Gosden horse who wins cosily next time out. Ryan Moore now aboard, say no more!!!

[noble1]

Newbury 17th April
3.25 - Dubai Duty Free 3yo 7f Handicap
Capel Path @5/1  2point win

Sugar Boy is a danger given Gosden"s record but that wasn"t with Godolphin horses  Stoutey knows the street cry breed and he made his debut [Capel Path] at Newmarket with a typical teaching the ropes ride held up. Next run teach from the front, 3rd run he knows his job and beats a nice Gosden horse who wins cosily next time out. Ryan Moore now aboard, say no more!!!

3.55 - 5f Handicap
Noble Storm @25/1  1point win
Boom The Groom @12/1  1point win

of the other races the 2.50 looks tight between the top 3 in the market so i"ll just watch and i"ll keep an eye out for the outsider Gibeon to see how he fares.
back to the 3.25 i"ve had a small place bet on the filly Vesnina @4/1, up against it with the colts but her form took a boost with the Nell Gywnn 2nd New Providence and it wouldn"t surprise me to see her stay for a place today.

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +300.71 points

Ayr 18th April
3.45 - Scottish Grand National
Cogry @20/1  1point win
Milborough @20/1  1point win


Newbury
3.25 - Spring Cup
Gabrial @8/1  2point win
Buckstay @7/1  1point win
Examiner @20/1  1point win

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +294.71 points

Sandown 3.50 - Gold Cup Chase
Hadrian"s Approach - 14/1 with WH and a couple of others.. 15.5 on Betfair 4.5 to be placed - 1point win 2point place on BF

reasoning/logic
Tricky race to pick apart but what swung it for me given conditions today was Hadrian"s Approach run at Newbury last year when only beaten a short head by Unioniste with Same Difference behind, HA made three mistakes in the straight at Newbury and was only beaten a short head and he had plenty left in the tank.
He has good stamina, he jumps, gallops and stays. He also has plenty of class being by High Chaparral and looks a good win-place bet imho. Sandown should suit him today, finished 5th in this race last year on good dround as a 6year old, had a break this year before Cheltenham which suggests to me that Henderson had this race as the initial target in mind....
The fitting of cheek pieces for the 2nd time might be a plus, focus in the later stages of a race can sometimes come at the cost of keenness in the early part when a horse is fitted with cheekpieces, it might make him a bit more alert in the early part of the race, but that"s no bad thing for this horse imho... I"d be surprised anyhows that Henderson hasn"t schooled him with them on,
this plus the fact i think NH has had this race in mind for HA was another tick in the box..
Geraghty on board isn"t a negative either lol............

Sandown 25th April
3.50 - Gold Cup Chase
Royale Knight @20/1  2point win
Rocky Creek @16/1  2point win
Bally Legend @25/1  1point win
Unioniste @14/1  1point win


Unioniste because of the above, i"d fancy more if a few lbs lower in the h/c...
Bally Legend - weight carrying wise gives him a better chance than last year, has a squeak odds a tad to big imo.
Rocky Creek - some where near his betbright chase run at kempton gives him a good chance.
Royale Knight - good run lto in the national, trainer underestimated, 20/1 rather good odds.

[nosey-p]

Grand Jesture 10/1, no thinking behind it, the pin has got to be lucky at some point

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +288.71 points

unlucky wayne with Grand Jesture, refused to race is a nightmare.


Punchestown 1st May
4.20 - Handicap Chase
Mr Fiftyone @11/2  2point win
Shanahan"s Turn @10/1  2point win

Mr Fiftyone"s lto behind Ballyadam Approach gives him a good chance.
Shanahan"s Turn is rather well in for his h/c debut if he reproduces his win over Wounded Warrior back in October.

[nosey-p]

Got my money back so all was not lost.

2.20 Stepper Point
4.55 Tempus Temporis

Off to Donny, any tips?

[nosey-p]

Donny
5.10 Sheriff Of Nawton
6.45 Strong Chemistry (will be watching the 4.20 NewM to see how Desert Force runs)