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99 Profitable spot to shove?

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Pitchie:
The OR is practically all-in bar the remaining 20 right? If the caller has anything about him and had a decent hand, we would expect him to shove himself therefore shoving yourself seems to feel right. That said it would be interesting to know what the callers calling range was before. With the stacks the way they are, myself, I would certainly flat AA here trying to induce.

TheSnapper:

--- Quote from: Pitchie on January 09, 2012, 14:04:43 PM ---
The OR is practically all-in bar the remaining 20 right? If the caller has anything about him and had a decent hand, we would expect him to shove himself therefore shoving yourself seems to feel right. That said it would be interesting to know what the callers calling range was before. With the stacks the way they are, myself, I would certainly flat AA here trying to induce.

--- End quote ---


Its nigh on impossible to assign a calling range to Budfox without a more detailed read, he is pot committed versus 2 of the 3 players behind but does he understand this or even consider it a factor?

Is it a $1 or a $100 tourney?

The profitability of shoving is largely based on our fold equity since we don"t have a lot of equity versus even a wide calling range like.....

99+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+    ( we are a 40 / 60 dog )

There is a strange paradox element to this spot, if the caller is bad enough to have a wider flatting range, it is then more likely we have sufficient fold equity.

Therefore while our EV for shoving is more likely positive, it also means we are taking on a high variance play versus the type of player against whom we should play low variance poker.

The reason to make the play can also be a good reason not to make the play.

ronaldo07:
It was a 22 Euro buy in and Budfox is a winning player on Boss according to Sharkscope. So I shove other player folds and Budfox has a decision - What hands do tou call with?

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