Poker Forum > Strategy
Cash game Live 1 & 1 table.
AAroddersAA:
This looked like a fold to me to be honest AND I don"t think a fold is too terrible at all and YES a case CAN be made for a call.
So let"s have a look
*********************************************************************************************
We have a passive game and we open to £11, this is a good play given the info we have. We get a cold caller and a repop from UTG (who straddled) to £43.
We have JJ (How good is that hand in this spot)
What do we think he has? I don"t know, based on this other than the fact he is apparently a capable player. Have we seen him 3-bet light before? Let"s credit him for being a thinking player and for understanding this is a decent spot to defend the straddle. Say his range is:-
99+ and AQ+
Does this sound reasonable? It is hard to say how often is this a bluff without far more info. If we remove bluffs from his range entirely then our hand is about 50/50 at showdown against the range we have given him so I suppose a shove makes sense from that standpoint. Most of the time the caller will fold here to the shove so not worrying about him (if he calls it is likely to become more profitable for us anyway).
Does our 3-bettor ever call with worse? Lets assume not, so he folds TT and 99 but calls with the rest of his range. We are still 43% against his range if we remove AQ (as he would likely fold that) we go down to 36% (this seems a reasonable assumption to me so far). So his three bet could be
AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo), TT (6 combos), 99 (6 combos), AK (16 combos), AQ (16 Combos) - thats 63 possible hand combo"s
He calls our shove with AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo) and AK (16 Combos) thats 35 possible hand combos
So when we shove we get called about 56% of the time
So we don"t get called 44% of the time. And when we don"t get called we win £67
When we do get called (56% of the time) we are only 36% against his range
So about 18% of time time we get called and win the hand which means we win £199
33% of the time we get called and lose £132
Quick bit of boring math to work out EV
49*67=3283 (won when he folds)
18*199=3582 (won when he calls and loses)
33*132=4356 (lost when he calls and wins)
Profit = around £25 per hand
So shoving is actually very profitable. I doubt flat calling will yield a better return.
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I am wrong - You should shove, it is the most profitable play.
PS - if you put him on AK (which you can"t, that is no way the only hand in his range) you should either shove of leave the game :-)
deanp27:
Depends who villain is, would be nice to know a name, but the assumption that he 3bet folds hands like tens etc is probably a bit off, especially if the guy is up on the night so far.
If you folded please don"t say you showed or told the table what you had
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: deanp27 on May 18, 2012, 08:29:49 AM ---
Depends who villain is, would be nice to know a name, but the assumption that he 3bet folds hands like tens etc is probably a bit off, especially if the guy is up on the night so far.
If you folded please don"t say you showed or told the table what you had
--- End quote ---
He would probably call with tens and maybe nines and this makes it more profitable for us. The above is the realistic worst case. It shows a jam is the best play even in this case, I didn"t think it would be here but it is so I learned something :-)
deanp27:
My general rule in cash games where there is a straddle etc and a fairly active opponent is to get stuck in and I cant see me folding any value hands like jacks in spots like this unless the guy has been a passive nit. Obviously I am not always right though.
Good to know people get something out of PHA threads
AMRN:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on May 18, 2012, 08:21:00 AM ---
This looked like a fold to me to be honest AND I don"t think a fold is too terrible at all and YES a case CAN be made for a call.
So let"s have a look
*********************************************************************************************
We have a passive game and we open to £11, this is a good play given the info we have. We get a cold caller and a repop from UTG (who straddled) to £43.
We have JJ (How good is that hand in this spot)
What do we think he has? I don"t know, based on this other than the fact he is apparently a capable player. Have we seen him 3-bet light before? Let"s credit him for being a thinking player and for understanding this is a decent spot to defend the straddle. Say his range is:-
99+ and AQ+
Does this sound reasonable? It is hard to say how often is this a bluff without far more info. If we remove bluffs from his range entirely then our hand is about 50/50 at showdown against the range we have given him so I suppose a shove makes sense from that standpoint. Most of the time the caller will fold here to the shove so not worrying about him (if he calls it is likely to become more profitable for us anyway).
Does our 3-bettor ever call with worse? Lets assume not, so he folds TT and 99 but calls with the rest of his range. We are still 43% against his range if we remove AQ (as he would likely fold that) we go down to 36% (this seems a reasonable assumption to me so far). So his three bet could be
AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo), TT (6 combos), 99 (6 combos), AK (16 combos), AQ (16 Combos) - thats 63 possible hand combo"s
He calls our shove with AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo) and AK (16 Combos) thats 35 possible hand combos
So when we shove we get called about 56% of the time
So we don"t get called 44% of the time. And when we don"t get called we win £67
When we do get called (56% of the time) we are only 36% against his range
So about 18% of time time we get called and win the hand which means we win £199
33% of the time we get called and lose £132
Quick bit of boring math to work out EV
49*67=3283 (won when he folds)
18*199=3582 (won when he calls and loses)
33*132=4356 (lost when he calls and wins)
Profit = around £25 per hand
So shoving is actually very profitable. I doubt flat calling will yield a better return.
*********************************************************************************************
I am wrong - You should shove, it is the most profitable play.
PS - if you put him on AK (which you can"t, that is no way the only hand in his range) you should either shove of leave the game :-)
--- End quote ---
Careful Steve, you"ll put Noble out of a job! I just wish I could calculate the odds like that on the fly whilst counting my chips at the table!
The alternative version. He was the straddle, and he"s eating chicken wings.. shove.
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