Poker Forum > Strategy
Pretty Common Spot, best way to play it?
dwh103:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on June 29, 2012, 20:44:19 PM ---
OK everybody seems more than less agreed on the best thing to do here. When does our stack become too big to shove anything we are going to play in this spot?
20BB?
--- End quote ---
Fold = -250
Shove, opps fold = +1600
Shove, call, lose = -4645
Shove, call, win = +5845
Depends on your assessment of your opponents limp-fold and limp-calling range. Crunched some numbers:
If you"re called 100%, with your stack you need 44.3% equity when called to break even.
50%, 29% equity to break even.
30%, 9% equity to break even.
The true number for me lies around 30-50%, so it"s pretty obvious that shoving any reasonable holding against a calling range is +cEV
A fair long-run equity for a shove is 35-40%. Assuming you"re called 50% of the time, you can profitably shove 16BBs if equity is 35%, and 26BBs if it"s 40%. (Whilst shoving is +EV, there may be better ways to play certain hands, i.e. AA ofc)
Against a calling range of {99-22,AJs-A6s,KTs+,QJs,AJo-A8o,KTo+,QJo} - if this guy is limp-calling 50% it"ll be pretty wide:
22 = 43.20%
A2o = 40.74%
87s = 40.15%
JTo = 38.59%
54s = 37.80%
Q2s = 35.27%
72o = 29.20%
To start making it a -EV play, you"ll need to be called 65-75% of the time.
So in summary, 10-15BBs looks like the answer, becoming marginal as you increase your stack size beyond that. Some of you need to open up your shoving range imo - you will not get many better spots to pick up chips! ;)
AAroddersAA:
^^^^^^^^^Great Post
Just checked through my poker tracker for hands where I have raised allin behind limpers.
This month I have made this play in this kind of spot 32 times and been called 13 times (this is a tiny sample but fits in with Dave"s calling range above). The hands that called me are:-
99 - 1 Time
88 - 4 Times
77 - 1 Time
55 - 1 Time
33 - 1 Time
AT - 2 Times
A9 - 1 Time
KQ - 2 Times
Looking at his I would say the range of hands that Dave assigned above is accurate. It is indeed a great spot to pick up chips as you are going to get called 50% of the time tops.
So with the sample over 100 hands we would 50 times pick up the 1850 that is already in the pot (We are SB so have already put 250 in). We then win against that range 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time (assuming we have two random cards).
So we win 1850 50 times = +92500
We Lose 4395 32 times = -140640
We win 6095 18 times = 109710
So if the above range is right and I think it is then shoving with ATC is profitable. You win about 1.5BB per hand.
I would still have some kind of hand requirement here personally. Mark"s is probably good, any two broadway, SC above 76s, Any pair 66-QQ and any Ace. We are about 50/50 with this range Vs what we currently believe the calling range to be.
The smaller pairs still concern me, I was wondering if anybody else has these kinds of hands in their trackers they could have a look at and see what people actually call with and if it fits in with mine.
One question for the people who are saying that shoving with A2 is incorrect or that shoving ATC looks like spew, what range are you putting the limpers on? How is this -EV?
dwh103:
Didn"t even think to check my HEM2 - though I find it really difficult to use and buggy, which sucks.
Managed to filter to show shoves over limpers, can"t find an easy way to display hands I"m called by though (any help?) :(
I"ve shoved >8BBs over 1 limper 97 times, been called 35, W$SD 42.9%.
By player yet to act:
AA
KK
TT
99
88
AKo
AQo x3
A9s
A6s
KQo
KJo
KTo
J2s
T9s (I"d only shoved 40 bigs with QQ AND been called by A9s before it got to him)
87o x2
54s
By limper:
AA x3 (people still do this - really?!)
QQ
JJ
88
55
AQo x2
ATs
A9o
A2s
KJo
KTo x2
K6s
QJs
QJo
QTo
J3s
86s
Most of the big hands I"ve been trapped by Villains are playing their hands ridiculously poorly (limping AQo out of a 6BB stack for example). I had also got into the habit of shoving far too loose with stacks too large (a leak I"ve since rectified).
You should still shove with Q2s in Steve"s original example though.
vs 2+ limpers. Shoved 46 times, called 26. W$SD 28% (see the range below I"m only winning 28% against - uber barf!)
By player yet to act:
KK
AKs x2
AQs
AQo x3
AJs
By limper:
QQ
TT x2
99
77 x2
44
22
AQo
ATo
A8s
A2o
KQs
KTo
QJo
Q9o
J9s
J8s
J7s
T6s
97s
64s
43o
Summary: I don"t pick up good hands when there are multiple limpers. I run horrifically to run into hands behind me. And also in that I lost to 6 of the 7 worst hands to limp call me (I needed TT to beat 43o).
I"m actually tilted. These aren"t even micro-stakes tournaments.
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: dwh103 on June 30, 2012, 11:27:06 AM ---
Didn"t even think to check my HEM2 - though I find it really difficult to use and buggy, which sucks.
Managed to filter to show shoves over limpers, can"t find an easy way to display hands I"m called by though (any help?) :(
--- End quote ---
In Poker tracker I just filtered raised all-in behind limper"s and selected saw river, seemed to work.
dwh103:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on June 30, 2012, 12:08:43 PM ---
--- Quote from: dwh103 on June 30, 2012, 11:27:06 AM ---
Didn"t even think to check my HEM2 - though I find it really difficult to use and buggy, which sucks.
Managed to filter to show shoves over limpers, can"t find an easy way to display hands I"m called by though (any help?) :(
--- End quote ---
In Poker tracker I just filtered raised all-in behind limper"s and selected saw river, seemed to work.
--- End quote ---
I can get a list of the applicable hands no problem, which includes my hole cards. But to see any opponent"s hole cards I have to select each individual hand - AFAIK obviously!
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