Poker Forum > Strategy
WWYD flopped bottom set...
deanp27:
Well you don"t have the nuts so you could be behind..... but I think I put enough reasons in my post to suggest why you are miles ahead of both their ranges. For every time he has 55/jj there are numerous times he has a 1pair hand.
Marty719:
--- Quote from: david3103 on July 26, 2012, 13:31:11 PM ---
Why wouldn"t anyone want to at least consider the chance that they were behind to a bigger set in this spot?
#nofistpumpcalls
--- End quote ---
--- Quote from: deanp27 on July 26, 2012, 13:45:09 PM ---
you are miles ahead of both their ranges.
--- End quote ---
This is the key here. Of course it"s possible that we are beat, but when we think of villain"s range, and our equity vs this range...anything but fist-pump calling is an error.
pokerpops:
--- Quote from: Marty719 on July 26, 2012, 13:55:30 PM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on July 26, 2012, 13:31:11 PM ---
Why wouldn"t anyone want to at least consider the chance that they were behind to a bigger set in this spot?
#nofistpumpcalls
--- End quote ---
--- Quote from: deanp27 on July 26, 2012, 13:45:09 PM ---
you are miles ahead of both their ranges.
--- End quote ---
This is the key here. Of course it"s possible that we are beat, but when we think of villain"s range, and our equity vs this range...anything but fist-pump calling is an error.
--- End quote ---
Of course we"re ahead of their ranges - specifically the reshovers range since covering BB comfortably and can take that hit if hit it is.
But, and I"m labouring the point I know, this is a tournament with a significant prizr pool and a likely overlay. Should we not take some amount of time to consider what hands he might have within his range that would make this bet? To narrow his range down.
He called pre, which he hasn"t shown a tendency to do. So, ignoring the evidence of the showdown, I"m looking at 22-1010. A10s+ AJo+ (maybe exclude AK?)
all reasonable so far?
Now he"s reshoved on a J53 flop
With an underpair that didn"t make a set?
With TPTK?
He hasn"t looked that spewy, although neither has he looked like he is solid and thinking.
meh - i thought it through and decided that the chances he had a set were small, but to me they seemed worth considering given his range pre and his actions postflop.
Maybe it"s easier to ask what you would be shoving on that flop over the BB"s move with one player still to act?
Marty719:
Assuming BB has an spr of ~1:1 gng to the flop with the open-jam, and utg+1 has an spr of ~2:1. If we were deep, then other options come into play, and things are more complicated, but not when we are this shallow. Its our own spr and equity vs villains ranges that make this a snap-call. Sets are of course included in this range, but are a very small part of it.
Also, of course it"s ok to have a think about the situation at any stage, but Im pretty sure this thread wasn"t made to ask the question, "How quick should I call these all-ins?"
fandango:
--- Quote from: PHIL_TC on July 25, 2012, 15:20:21 PM ---
Presuming the plan pre was to hit a set... you"ve hit the hand you wanted? Never folding here.
--- End quote ---
^^^^^^ This^^^^^^ 100%
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