Poker Forum > Strategy
Hypothetical Hand - What do you do
dwh103:
If you know you suck at poker - call.
But given most of us will believe, rightly or wrongly, that we have an edge on the field. Then it"s a fold.
PHIL_TC:
I remember reading somewhere that the closest 50/50 pre you can have is something like
AT vs 3 3 sharing one of the suits...
Might be wrong, memory not what it was.
Either way. I"m folding.
--- Quote from: dwh103 on July 28, 2012, 17:24:45 PM ---
If you know you suck at poker - call.
--- End quote ---
Actually..... on second thoughts....
MintTrav:
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 28, 2012, 16:51:16 PM ---
Seriously? Fold.
400 runners - you would flip to try increase your cEV from 0.25% to around a whopping 0.48%.
--- End quote ---
How did you come to that answer?
I actually think there are a lot of advantages to having a big stack early. Winning the flip would give you a lot more than double the chance of winning the tournament for several reasons. I just didn"t fancy the downside.
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: MintTrav on July 29, 2012, 09:43:07 AM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 28, 2012, 16:51:16 PM ---
Seriously? Fold.
400 runners - you would flip to try increase your cEV from 0.25% to around a whopping 0.48%.
--- End quote ---
How did you come to that answer?
I actually think there are a lot of advantages to having a big stack early. Winning the flip would give you a lot more than double the chance of winning the tournament for several reasons. I just didn"t fancy the downside.
--- End quote ---
Obviously the hand itself would never happen but the situation it creates is that we double up and win 15,000 chips about 54% of the time, and as John says it more than doubles our chance of making it into day two, the cash and the final table, especially if we have the edge that we are all saying is the reason we should fold.
Does your answer change if the tournament is a re-entry?
How much of an edge do we think we need in the tournament to turn this down?
Those of us who think it"s a fold, do you believe you double your stack in this kind of event more than 54% of the time playing small pots or by just getting it all-in in a better spot.
What sort of an edge do we need to fold here and is it realistic to think that we have it?
Also what do we do if we are holding the AK and our opponent is holding QJ?
AMRN:
Do you seriously believe that doubling up in the first hand doubles your chance of winning the tournament? To win the tournament, you need to gather 100% of the chips in play. In a 400 runner tourney, you start with 0.25% of the chips in play, and if you double up you have 0.5% of the chips in play. It"s a helluva long way to get from 0.5% to 100%!
So - ultimately, you"re risking your entire tournament equity, with a potential return of a quarter of one percent of the chips in play. If you believe you have any kind of edge in the game, calling to take the flip here would be awful play.
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