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pokerpops:
I had a tough weekend one way or another and this is one of a couple of hands where I"m pretty sure my game was not at it"s best. There"s a couple from the DS that I need to think about too, but let"s start the ball rolling


After a few adventures, including being slowrolled by someone who called my shove and then waited to see my hand before rolling over Aces. Got lucky with KJ in a 3way all in vs AQ (slowrolling git) and AK and eventually reached the 1500/3000/400 level with around 85k and have not long moved tables.

194 entries, plus reloads to make a prize pool of £32,200. 27 paid and currently around 66 left

Villain - Seat 2 has 100k+. Older than me, grizzled looking - opens utg(possibly +1, my memory is blurred through lack of sleep) to 10,000
Folds to me in LP and I find  Ah Qh and raise to 37000** planning on calling a shove, but expecting a fold.

He flats... I really didn"t expect this and it left me somewhat nonplussed

Flop is x Kh x

He checks

What now?




**Opinions on this? Shove, raise smaller or flat?

AAroddersAA:
Shove Pre ? Going by my maths we have a pot of

10K (raise) + 4.5K (Blinds) + 3600? (Ante)

Total pot is 18100?

We have 85K so we add more than 20% to our stack if he fold and if he calls we are still likely to have some good equity. I would initially say that it is a shove pre for these reasons. It actually looks like the ideal 3-bet shove spot.

As played it quite hard without being at the table but assigning you a tightish image and him the profile of a standard live player.

Looks like a good flop to c-bet and I think he is folding a lot of his range here. Live players may well fold a pair below a King here a lot of the time. He is also folding most of the suited Aces and broadways in his range.

He pretty much only calls here with a king (an underpair usually thinks you got there with AK) and the only king that SHOULD be in his range here is KQ (maybe KJ). Add in some extra King combos that incorrectly called pre and maybe some pair combos that get stubborn post flop and call you anyway and we only have:-

12 Combo of KQ
12 Combo of KJ
12 Combo of other Kings or AK that called incorrectly say
8  Combo of PP that call (there maybe more than this tbh)

All of the above call? I make that 44 combos (Very roughly)

Folding is most likely depandant on his opening range from EP. I would have thought he is folding the below:-

AQ (6 Combo"s)
AJ (16 Combos)
JJ (6 Combos)
TT (6 Combos)
Add in some other Ax combos and PP also

Looks like we have enough fold equity to shove without taking into account the fact that sometimes we will get called and still win the pot. I would not be worrying too much about tournament life at this stage btw we are a long way from the bubble.

HOLDorFOLD:

AMRN:
Perfect spot and stack size for a 3bet shove pre.

As played, understanding that he will probably check 100% on the flop, I probably shove and pray he"s missed.... there"s no room to cbet/fold, and I don"t want to let him think he has any impetus by cbetting small. Shove the flop, maximise fold equity, close eyes and pray.

hi_am_chris:
Hopefully visibly closing our eyes and praying at the  table while he stares us down doesn"t encourage him to call with his middle pair  ???

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