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DTD Online Day 1

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noble1:
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AySObpWLFY0&list=WLAB8804C577E4FC48[/youtube]

thought process + perceived ranges ...


--- Quote ---MP3 raises to 1,800, 3 folds, Hero raises to 3,200
--- End quote ---
??

u cbet flop + call rr - what does your range look like when u check the turn, what will your oppo expect u to do - etc etc

has he seen u play any other hands to SD , has he seen u make odd plays on similar textures and x/fold to aggression etc..

not enough info on your part to really say :-X

AAroddersAA:
Can some people post their thinking please (I will try and do tomorrow mind not switched on and my logic does not work when this happens). Why is it a fold, what range of hands do you think he has and why? What is is range pre given the action and what hands are we eliminating from that range on the flop?

Don"t want to get all uppity :-) but everybody is saying fold and nobody has justified it or explained why, without looking at it in any great depth it is a FML spot and not clear at all is my first impression, I could well be wrong I have only read the thread once but trying to encourage some good discussion.

I will watch Nobles video before going any further though.

I reckon we can make a better thread with more in depth posts as I know everybody who has posted here is good enough to have some great thoughts on these questions. Would like to hear them.

Fatcatstu:
Too hung over for more detail, I"m sure it"s a fold tho :p

AAroddersAA:
I will do my best with this one.

We have a raise from MP. Based on the read that you have given when it folds to us in the BB he could have ATC. Is there any reason not for us to think this? Do we have any stats on the player?

I would not mind a flat at this point and I don"t mind the raise. If I do raise I am hoping for a fold though as there are not many flops I like in a 3-bet pot really. I guess I am going to have to fold if he 4-bets me unless there is some reason I am not aware of why you would not have done this against this player. The stack sizes are kind of awkward and I don"t hate a fold pre to be honest if I think he is a good player I might well fold pre as he can put me in all sorts of horrid spots post with this hand and these stacks.

As played if we think he is going to call wide might as well 3 bet smallish. I would actually make it 1500 more so my raise would be to 3300, not really an issue either way is it. I am not very happy when he calls.

I am still not too sure what he has. He should not have total trash I think? Although it is hard to say without a better read tbh.

He has not got a big pair that often so lets take AA, KK and QQ out. AK does not sound that likely either as surely in this spot it is better to just get it in pre with a hand like AK or QQ, especially if he knows his reputation. I suppose AA or KK could be trapping but they are less likely. Maybe a combo each of AA and KK and say 4 combos of AK?

I think he range is going to contain some small pairs 22-TT say, SC should fold pre really to the 3-bet but he might call and plan to outplay you if he has a good read. AQ and Axs are also possible imo.

So I think his range might be

AQ, AJ, Axs, Lot"s of SC.

When the flop comes down the pot is 6800 correct?

You have hit TPTK and there are a few draws on the board. Flush draws, 9T and probably a few combo draws. Maybe hands like KJ and QJ as well. I am still finding it hard to put him on a range.

You bet 3800 and he raises quite strong to 8500 (pot is now 19100 right? You have about 33K left). He now should have value hands, semi bluffs and total bluffs.

Value hands may include some worse Jacks. I think he has some of those in his range at this point KJ and QJ are possible as he may have peeled IP with such hands. Heart draws are not impossible and combo draws pair and FD and maybe gutshot and flush draw type hands. Wou;ld he raise a Jack here?

If I give him a very rough estimated range of

JJ, 88, 44, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah4h, KJs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 7h6h, 5h4h, AJo, KJo ,QJo, T9o

Then we should shove we are 60% against this range and have very attractive pot odds (if he folds then we win more than if he calls long term). The question is how close my range for this player is to correct. So imo the flop is a shove. Quite hard a hard one to work out though to be fair, it looked like a flat to me until I looked at it. If we don"t think he raises a bare Jack (hands like KJ or QJ) then we are basically 50/50 but should still be shoving due to us having fold equity.

On the turn against that range we are 30% as the queen is a really bad card for us so it probably is a fold. It just depends how much air is in his range and our reads, however I do"t want to get in a guessing game here tbh. Given that he shoved with a good hand before I would tend to believe him and would indeed fold.

Conclusion

Preflop - dunno, fold might be best
Flop - 3-bet shove Shove
Turn - Fold

pokerpops:
Cold light of day thoughts...


What does he think i have?
He"s seen me raise and fold to a 3bet a couple of times at least. The 48 hand I opened, there was a 3bet and villain cold 4bets.
I"ve opened AK and folded to a donk bet plus a call, I"ve also 3bet JJ and got it in on the turn on xxJK
He knows as much about me as I know about him I guess.

In this hand...
I 3bet oop and led the flop both of which look strong
He calls pre and raises the flop which could, as Rodders says, be strength, bluff or semi-bluff.
I flat his raise on the flop, after some thought and then I check the turn, which looks...?

I understand the idea of getting it in on the flop, but in truth it feels like there"s more two pair, sets or combo draws in his range than enough.
I"m wondering if a fold there might not be sensible.
Anybody think checking the flop is ever a good idea for pot control?

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