Poker Forum > Strategy
DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
GiMac:
--- Quote from: deanp27 on March 12, 2013, 07:54:46 AM ---
Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks
--- End quote ---
No it doesn"t cos should be folding AJ in this particular situation 100% of the time vs his stack size. I explained already why it doesn"t matter, so, rather than just stating it does, perhaps you would like to explain why it does? ::)
pokerpops:
With further thought on this, I"m swinging into the calling camp
Firstly - this is NOT a satellite. We shouldn"t play it as such.
It"s a re-entry MTT which is approaching the bubble but around five eliminations short of the bubble being a factor and we have a touch over average stack.
MP has just lost a hand and his range is likely to have widened considerably given that re-entry options exist.
I know the hand he shoved with and can"t construct a range that includes it but something like any pair, any Ace any two broadway cards feels close
we"re 60/40 vs that and we have to be happy with that surely?
Even if we take out smaller pairs and smaller offsuit aces, and the J10 combos we"re still in the 60/40 range
If you knew for sure that your opponent held Ac Kd
and we had Jh Js we"d call wouldn"t we?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,712,304 games 0.002 secs 856,152,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.746% 42.58% 00.16% 729149 2794.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 57.254% 57.09% 00.16% 977567 2794.00 { JhJs }
Fatcatstu:
Agree with Dave here (off to lie down in darkened room shortly)
He can just be doing this with alOt of stuff we beat. It is a re entry, so this widens his range somewhat I would imagine.
Why do we need to be scared just because it"s near the end of our day? IMO we are ahead most of the time here (see dave"s post for the details :p ) and have a chance to add a significant amount of chippy fe to our stack and be very comfortable going to day 2 and in a far better position to launch an attack on the proper money going forward.
Stick it all in the middle and next time do a win :)
AAroddersAA:
I think his range does matter. It certainly is not the snap fold this thread has suggested and is a spot worth real consideration.
There are about 100K in chips out there to be won and it looks like we MIGHT have a good spot to try and win them here. That is what we are trying to assess.
Giving him a range of QQ-66 and any two broadway we are about 56%. I think you can probably add a few other holding we dominate as this looks like a slightly tilty shove to me which is most likely what it is, but let"s go with this range which I don"t think is too far off.
Please tell me if you think there are better ranges we could use (forget what he had it is not relevant)
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,150,668,288 games 0.000 secs 230,133,657,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.981% 52.68% 03.30% 606182224 37971614.00 { AJs }
Hand 1: 44.019% 40.72% 03.30% 468542836 37971614.00 { QQ-66, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
So we have a 55% chance to win 100K in chips but need to gamble 90K of our stack to do it. I actually quite like that risk/reward senario.
I would lean towards a reshove here. The fact the BB is still to act is a minor concern but not a big one, also knowing his stack size would help a little.
The argument for calling is do you think you can accumulate 100K in chips by finding a number of spots better than this more than 56% of the time. In most cases the answer is going to be no I think. This goes back to the question I have asked numerous times in the past about the QQ vs AK early in a tournament. This is a great in game example of the same sort of decision. To be honest the people folding in this spot may well be over-estimating their edge on the game.
The argument for folding is that you want to make day two and there is also fun equity in making day two as you go on a nice little trip to DTD and get to spend the day with some great people playing poker. Some people may also think their edge is larger live than online. Your table may also be playing in such a way you think you can pick up the chips better elsewhere BUT this would be most unusual. Their may also be significant ICM considerations depending on the payout.
I would fold this in a satellite. In this I reshove.
deanp27:
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 12, 2013, 08:51:57 AM ---
--- Quote from: deanp27 on March 12, 2013, 07:54:46 AM ---
Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks
--- End quote ---
No it doesn"t cos should be folding AJ in this particular situation 100% of the time vs his stack size. I explained already why it doesn"t matter, so, rather than just stating it does, perhaps you would like to explain why it does? ::)
--- End quote ---
Ok so accepted that you would never call a ~19bb shove with AJs and that the range of hands he may do this with is of no concern to you. What do you do in a tournament when you are in the BB with AJs and the SB open shoves 19bbs into you, don"t you think about ranges or even consider calling?
In a generic tournament, this is pretty close to a call because his range is likely to be wide (due to potential tilt factor) and he is unlikely to play premium hands (the hands that crush us) in this manner as he won"t want to miss out on value. If he only did this with top 5% of hands its clearly a fold.
It is still a tournament situation where accumulating chips is a primary concern, we are aiming to win and it is probably not at the point yet where ICM totally takes over our decision making at the expense of cEV. How the particular structure of the Grand Prix affects this is open to debate but i think getting a decent stack for day 2 is probably a good strategy and if we fail we try again. In a satellite it is a clear fold (probably regardless of his range as you state) as staying alive to the money places is our primary concern.
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