Poker Forum > Strategy
DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
GiMac:
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 12, 2013, 22:42:32 PM ---
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 12, 2013, 22:23:37 PM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 12, 2013, 22:18:41 PM ---
That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
--- End quote ---
Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie. 8)
--- End quote ---
so we"re playing to make a min cash?
--- End quote ---
Where have I said that? I"ll help you David I haven"t.
Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time?
WYoung83:
I understand the post, and it was a really nice read, but with regards to this comment
"Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time"?
I think Game theory optimal can be adjusted with the nature of this style of MTT. Optimum play in this situation should be looking to increase stack when a guy seem like he can be tilt shoveing and AJs is a good reason to re-ship.
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 12, 2013, 23:12:18 PM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 12, 2013, 22:42:32 PM ---
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 12, 2013, 22:23:37 PM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 12, 2013, 22:18:41 PM ---
That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
--- End quote ---
Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie. 8)
--- End quote ---
so we"re playing to make a min cash?
--- End quote ---
Where have I said that? I"ll help you David I haven"t.
Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time?
--- End quote ---
Firstly some good points in this thread need to post more on this board. The debate is really great. Some of you people need to post more in the section imo :-)
I see where Gordon is coming from here (the bubble factor is a decent point but whilst ICM is always a factor is should not always be the deciding factor, I agree the argument is mathematically sound btw).
I still feel you need to take into account how much of an edge you have over the field and if you are more likely to be able to win these chips elsewhere, I think early in the tournament this is more important than ICM and is currently still a more important consideration. For me the pots odds and the fact we are in what should be a pretty tough field dictate a call (just). Also the figure of 52% is not taking split pots into account, I am not an expert on ICM tbh but thought that we should be using the overall win % figure that takes account of split pots (I could easily be wrong on this it is certainly not one of my areas of expertise).
GiMac:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on March 12, 2013, 23:33:13 PM ---
Firstly some good points in this thread need to post more on this board. The debate is really great. Some of you people need to post more in the section imo :-)
I see where Gordon is coming from here (the bubble factor is a decent point but whilst ICM is always a factor is should not always be the deciding factor, I agree the argument is mathematically sound btw).
I still feel you need to take into account how much of an edge you have over the field and if you are more likely to be able to win these chips elsewhere, I think early in the tournament this is more important than ICM and is currently still a more important consideration. For me the pots odds and the fact we are in what should be a pretty tough field dictate a call (just). Also the figure of 52% is not taking split pots into account, I am not an expert on ICM tbh but thought that we should be using the overall win % figure that takes account of split pots (I could easily be wrong on this it is certainly not one of my areas of expertise).
--- End quote ---
I agree its not the overriding factor, but neither should assuming the guy is tilt shoving. How many times do we lose or see someone lose a hand only to open shove a monster the very next hand? I see it happen all the time and people invariably pay them off because they assume he is tilting. Also if you feel you have an edge over the field then you definitely do not need to risk over half your stack making marginal calls like this.
I think you use the winning % figure cos the split pot percentage is neutral, but I may be corrected.
At the end of the day it"s a very close and marginal call/fold which is probably why we are discussing it, but for me it"s too marginal and a long term losing call.
GiMac:
--- Quote from: WYoung83 on March 12, 2013, 23:26:38 PM ---
I understand the post, and it was a really nice read, but with regards to this comment
"Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time"?
I think Game theory optimal can be adjusted with the nature of this style of MTT. Optimum play in this situation should be looking to increase stack when a guy seem like he can be tilt shoveing and AJs is a good reason to re-ship.
--- End quote ---
^^^^^^^see my post above reference "tilt shoving", also we have taken into account that this is a wider than usual shove and the maths still says I"m out.
p.s. A lot of players think only about chip accumulation in MTT"s, but it"s also about chip preservation. i suppose the secret is getting the balance correct. ;)
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version