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Two spots with Ace King

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mporter123:
PokerStars Hand #101392156184: Tournament #757078225, $8.00+$0.80 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2013/07/14 18:20:16 WET [2013/07/14 13:20:16 ET]
Table "757078225 7" 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: rafalskyyy (2190 in chips)
Seat 2: jeramm (11054 in chips)
Seat 3: Sumer_link (4084 in chips)
Seat 4: 1molylepke (3980 in chips)
Seat 5: luccaspie (1785 in chips)
Seat 6: laydown666 (3300 in chips)
Seat 7: Mark_Port157 (3020 in chips)
Seat 8: 6yJIb6off (2600 in chips)
Seat 9: CharlieC80 (1188 in chips)
laydown666: posts small blind 40
Mark_Port157: posts big blind 80
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [Kh As]
6yJIb6off: folds
CharlieC80: folds
rafalskyyy: raises 80 to 160
jeramm: folds
Sumer_link: folds
1molylepke: folds
luccaspie: folds
laydown666: folds
Mark_Port157: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [8c 4d Ah]
Mark_Port157: checks
rafalskyyy: bets 187
Mark_Port157: calls 187
*** TURN *** [8c 4d Ah] [5s]
Mark_Port157: checks
rafalskyyy: bets 448
Mark_Port157: calls 448
*** RIVER *** [8c 4d Ah 5s] [9s]
Mark_Port157: ???

PokerStars Hand #101393050924: Tournament #757079548, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2013/07/14 18:38:21 WET [2013/07/14 13:38:21 ET]
Table "757079548 113" 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Mark_Port157 (3260 in chips)
Seat 2: hajete (2435 in chips)
Seat 3: Aleks_310177 (2970 in chips)
Seat 4: neckbr4ke (3015 in chips)
Seat 5: platenik69 (3000 in chips)
Seat 6: QuizaH (6555 in chips)
Seat 7: TuTeCalmes! (2965 in chips)
Seat 8: morc1us (2845 in chips)
Seat 9: AlbertSHG (2955 in chips)
Mark_Port157: posts small blind 15
hajete: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [Ad Kc]
Aleks_310177: folds
neckbr4ke: raises 30 to 60
platenik69: folds
QuizaH: folds
TuTeCalmes!: folds
morc1us: folds
AlbertSHG: folds
Mark_Port157: calls 45
hajete: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kh 7d 2c]
Mark_Port157: checks
neckbr4ke: bets 93
Mark_Port157: calls 93
*** TURN *** [Kh 7d 2c] [4d]
Mark_Port157: checks
neckbr4ke: bets 223
Mark_Port157: calls 223
*** RIVER *** [Kh 7d 2c 4d] [As]
Mark_Port157: ???

Hand 1 - Villain is playing 14/14 over 79 hands and is a decent winner in these games.
Hand 2 - Villain is playing 20/12 over just 25 hands. He is a HSMTT"er and crushes with >$2.3 million in cashes.

River approach?

KarmaDope:
In both hands I like leading, I think we"re ahead of ranges in both at showdown and I don"t want to let our opponent get to showdown cheaply.

Hand 1 - I like 999 just because a lot of players will bet that if they have paired the 9 on the river and you are slightly more likely to get a call from a weaker ace. I would also call a shove as we have disguised our hand very well here and to the opponent it probably looks like we have something along the lines of 8x/9x and Ace-rag.

Hand 2 - The pot is 782 but I actually like an overbet line here, I just cant decide whether to bet small to induce the shove (which is probably the better value line here) or just to open shove as if you had missed the flush draw. In game I probably make it 345/call but do we think an overbet works?

deanp27:
i"d probably bet/fold in both spots. Probably bet smaller (in relation to pot) in hand 1 than I would hand 2.

However could check hand 2 OTR as he is more likely to bluff/value bet that card, then decide whether to call or raise (raising could be a bit thin and will depend if any history)

Like Pre in both cases to btw.

Charlie44:
In both hands you have effectively slow played - so in hand 1 you are probably ahead and in hand 2 you have virtual nuts.

Hand1.

Stack size is the issue here with the villain being the effective stack. By my calc. Pot 1630 Villain 1395 left. So any bet you have to call a shove imo. 3 options - check, small bet /call a shove, shove. Likely ranges of utg raise and 2 streets of betting - A high (Q/J), Big pair (less likely with turn bet and his stack), bluffs which are now beating you, bluffs which have missed, sets (statistically unlikely). Most likely I think is AQ/AJ, and I think you have to bet what you think he will call. I think he has virtually committed himself with the turn bet and shove looks more like a bluff rather than 600, so its a shove for me. If he has you beat he was shoving anyway and you would have to call and you would still have 10 BB left.

Hand 2
Pot 782 Villain  2654 left.

Here not  so committed as previous hand.

Here I think his likely ranges are AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ, JJ -55-(no sets) , other bluffs. AA/KK so unlikely can ignore. Small sets relatively unlikely can also ignore so you have the virtual nuts. Of this range, IMO If he is checked to  he is only likely to bet AK, sets  (for value) or bluffs. So I think you need to bet for value of the most likely holdings - broadway hands (but slight doubt about raising utg+1) and big aces (although he would have to have been bluffing turn) . I think he would may only call about 300 with KQ/KJ. So IMO I would make pot bet and shove to any raise.  

dwh103:
Hand 1:

I presume there must be a reason why you"ve not 3b? I personally 3b at least pot+extra pre. Even though his OPR and stats suggest he"s pretty straightforward nitty early in tournies, you need to raise an amount to manage the effective stack sizes - i.e. make it as easy for you to play as possible (you don"t want to be making it 6x OOP when he"s playing 27BBs). Could even stick it in his eye depending on how he analyses 3b sizing, though need some history there for that.

A large lead on the river is horrible (unless Villain is an utter moron, in which case I refer you back to not 3betting pre - which this guy isn"t). Can"t fold anything better out, and you stop him bluffing. Villain may call with AT-AK, but these hands may value bet anyway so no need for you to bet. Clear check/call with an under-repped hand would be the standard line, but you could block bet against a straightforward opponent.

Hand 2:

Playing OOP, vs a strong, probably multi tabling opponent with a HUD. Don"t mind a peel as much here! Villain only has 25 hands on you, so you can probably level him a bit here given your pre-flop play. He won"t stack off light and will probably be following his standard strategy.

As played, Villains range is fairly wide, and the river card is a perfect barrel card for him if he"s bluffing. Almost impossible for you to have the Ace, so I"d expect his bet frequency to be near 100% here - assuming he tries to take you off what appears to be mediocre showdown. Therefore lead overbetting is horrible (sorry Adam). It"s normally for value anyway and you don"t have the history/dynamic to sell it in any other way to a strong player.

Check-raising river is not an option if he"s REALLY good (we only ever CR 2 pair+, so his calling range only includes AK/set/unlikely straight), so it"s a case of do we get more if we check/call or block bet to rep KQ/KJ etc and induce a raise. It"s a tough spot, he may not try to take us off our hand (I hope you tanked on the turn) in either situation, or value raise with KQ or a rivered Ax if we do block bet. I keep changing my mind with what I prefer - probably a check as there"s a chance of an overbet from him with Ax.

On a general point, I think you"re taking pot control and disguise a little too far with these hands Mark. You"re losing value pre in hand 1 where stack sizes are more than workable in your favour imo and in hand 2 I don"t think you"ve taken advantage of an awesome spot on the turn to check-raise.

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