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Line Check

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TheSnapper:
nice post Charlie.

This is not an ICM spot and we are not even close to that stage yet. ICM considers your equity share of the prize pool and often in ICM spots the big winners in an all-in situation are those not involved the hand.

Being pedantic now but more so you notice where you erred, we need 44% to break even on a call.....

amount to call / ( pot + amount to call )*100

5927 / (7527 + 5927)*100 = 44.05%

Charlie44:

--- Quote from: TheSnapper on July 27, 2013, 12:16:32 PM ---
nice post Charlie.

This is not an ICM spot and we are not even close to that stage yet. ICM considers your equity share of the prize pool and often in ICM spots the big winners in an all-in situation are those not involved the hand.

Being pedantic now but more so you notice where you erred, we need 44% to break even on a call.....

amount to call / ( pot + amount to call )*100

5927 / (7527 + 5927)*100 = 44.05%

--- End quote ---


Thanks for your feedback - I appreciate your comments. Yes of course my calc. is wrong - I forgot the antes.   I make it relevant pot if calls now - 2 x initial stack of hero = 6427*2 = 12854 + small blind (125) + antes of other players (175) = 13154. Amount to call 6427 - 500 - 25 = 5902.  So break even for chips+ ev is 5902/13154 = 44.8% . As you say differences so immaterial as to be irrelevant.

I take your point about ICM. I appreciate that the traditional thinking applies when you get very close to bubble or at during the subsequent prize stages. Avoiding big all ins without premium hands and climbing the ladder can be a good strategy. However in my opinion these considerations should be taken into account at an earlier stage when you have built up a significant stack compared to your starting stack.

Consider an extreme situation - you are at a similar stage of the tourney with 65 players left where you and hero each have 1/3 of total chips in play each and everybody else has close to starting stack (told you it was extreme!!). Surely you don"t take a 45% shot here. That"s because your expected prize money is very significant and would not be even close to doubling if you called and won the hand. The actual scenario is of course nowhere near this situation. All I am saying is with chips + ev you need about 45% chance to call, Prize money +ev, whilst hard to quantify, IMO you need significantly more than that to call.

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