Poker Forum > Strategy

Turning KK into a bluff on the river?

(1/3) > >>

Sillbags:
Thought this was an interesting river spot. Playing 200bb deep gave me a nice size bet to bluff shove the river with the K blocker to the nuts.

-Bet size on the flop may be a little small?
-How do we feel about the c/call on the turn? Standard?
-River = c/call, c/fold or c/raise?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

KregHek777 (BTN): $46.57
SillBags (SB): $53.68
runabout17 (BB): $20.57
lenusikwin (UTG): $11.04
Don Del 82 (MP): $18.09
Mauzen12 (CO): $48.80

SillBags posts SB $0.10, runabout17 posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) SillBags has Kc Kh
fold, fold, Mauzen12 raises to $0.75, fold, SillBags raises to $2.50, fold, Mauzen12 calls $1.75

Flop : ($5.25, 2 players) 9c 8d 5c
SillBags bets $2.75, Mauzen12 calls $2.75

Turn : ($10.75, 2 players) Ac
SillBags checks, Mauzen12 bets $5.25, SillBags calls $5.25

River : ($21.25, 2 players) 7s
SillBags checks, Mauzen12 bets $11.00, SillBags raises to $43.18 and is all-in, fold

SillBags wins $41.30

Charlie44:
Very nice result.

Assuming villain is a reg, given the action to the river I think villain prob has specifically 99 or 88, or possibly A9s (not clubs obv). I think the only realistic flush holding is QJ clubs. I definitely don"t think you are beating anything on the river so its push or fold for me.

In the time constraints I think its very difficult for him to call on the river as played, and I don"t think I would have done so.
However I believe if he had these holdings he should have called because-

He only needs to be right approx 30% of time to be profitable. Would you really be checking to him on turn and river with a nut flush ?

But well played - IMO you found the best practical play in the circumstances.

hi_am_chris:
Would assume he has a lot more flushes than just JQ in his range but his bet on the turn could be lots of things including lots of bluffs and semi bluffs, doesn"t have to have a made hand to  bet turn and river when checked to in position.

Pre he has position so would assume he"s going to call with fairly wide range,

AAroddersAA:
Working from a vacuum here. If you have better reads n the player a lot of what I say here becomes less relevant and can certainly change the best play on the river.

We are playing pretty deep for an online cash game. Preflop is clearly fine and you get it heads up which is cool. He has position in a 3-bet pot so will call a little bit wider.

The flop is wet but we have the best hand a lot of the time here. What do we learn from his call?

A set feels unlikely in this spot as it is a great spot for a set to raise the flop due to the amount of scare cards that are going to hit the turn and the fact the flop is pretty wet anyway.

When he calls there are draws, he can have The flush Draw or even TJ. Maybe a pair and a draw as well? Again a lot of these hands should raise but they don"t.

At this point I don"t see a massive number of aces in his range that call the flop. He could be floating us with AK/AQ I suppose but his hand feels more weighted towards a draw as it is a great spot for hands like two pair and sets to raise.

The turn is pretty horrible but he only bets small so we should certainly call as our hand can still be best and we have the nut flush draw anyway.

The seven completes the TJ straight draw.

He bets about half the pot. If on the flop I felt he had a draw they basically all got there. We still lose to sets and they probably won"t fold. The only hands that we probably do get folds from are AK/AQ type hands that floated the flop and hit the turn. He certainly can have these.

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.

Readless I don"t think we get that in this situation.

I think the flop is fine.

I think the turn is standard as when we hit we can get paid quite often, and sometimes the river goes check/check and we win with the best hand. He does not need to have a hand to bet the turn.

I think the river is a check/fold.

Charlie44:

--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on October 25, 2013, 11:23:44 AM ---

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.



--- End quote ---


Nice post Steve. I think I got my analysis completely wrong. In hindsight I agree he probs calls 3 bet much wider range, and raises sets here.

Just a small point I think he risks 38.30 here to win 32.25 so villain has to fold 54% of time. Of course this does not contradict situation from villain"s point of view which is he has to call 27.30 to win 70.55 so only needs to be right just 27.8% of time to be profitable.

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page