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Football Bets
AAroddersAA:
As much as I hate to say it, for neutrals Mansfield has to be a good bet tonight @ 13/10. They had a very good result on Saturday and we look terrible at the moment. I really hope I am wrong but I would be going 2pts on that at the moment if I was not a County fan.
nosey-p:
-5pts
Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.
Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.
3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price
2pts treble 8/1
noble1:
--- Quote from: nosey-p on August 19, 2014, 06:48:33 AM ---
Looks like you are better at this as well :D
--- End quote ---
hmmm very doubtful Wayne, there was some basic logic to why i fancied a back to lay on Burnley... its math based loosely on negative binomial distribution... i"m not a fan of trying to predict football, published forecast models are complete tosh imho, all the tripe by so called football experts on poisson distribution/regression or stats/rank based models/systems are complete balderdash, would anyone with an ounce of sense honestly believe that the best predictive programs are published for the public? of course they wouldn"t, the best prediction models are snapped up and used by the gambling industry/bookmakers, it crunches out its numbers and then a odds setter will adjust the models odds accounting for any extra info.....
anyhooooo"s thats my daily rant over with ;D i had browse of all the football expert tipsters on the internet out of interest today and boy oh boy my blood boiled at some of the math bo-llocks they come out with...
is my approach profitable? long term i don"t know... bare bones reasoning was i looked at Chelsea"s away record last year to see how often they conceded first, there defence at the time and whether or not Matic made any difference in the 2nd half of the season... hence i fancied Burnley to score first and at the odds pre-match i saw this as a half decent value back to lay bet....
on last nights showing i"m still on the fence as to whether or not Mourinho has plugged the defensive away problems his team had last year...
noble1:
--- Quote from: nosey-p on August 19, 2014, 09:15:49 AM ---
-5pts
Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.
Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.
3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price
2pts treble 8/1
--- End quote ---
just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)
fingers crossed for tonight ;)
nosey-p:
--- Quote from: noble1 on August 19, 2014, 12:36:49 PM ---
--- Quote from: nosey-p on August 19, 2014, 09:15:49 AM ---
-5pts
Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.
Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.
3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price
2pts treble 8/1
--- End quote ---
just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)
fingers crossed for tonight ;)
--- End quote ---
tonight is my last bet :D
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