Poker Forum > Strategy
TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
TopPair2Pair:
--- Quote --- and for the guy that loves playing from the SB, you may have a leak in your game imo
--- End quote ---
Not sure if its a leak! Seems more like a full blown get your arm bands & life jacket out flood!
Departed:
From a maths point of view, you would be shoving effective stack of 5000 into a pot of 1275.
If they fold more than 5000/(5000+1275) = 80% of time, then you will automatically make a profit on this in the long run.
If they"re only calling your shove with QQ,KK,AA,AK then they"re calling with about 3% of possible cards. So doing the maths they need to be raising at least
3 / (1- 0.80) = 15% of their cards for them to fold 80% of time.
Above is a bit techincal but it leads to the conclusion that if the button reraiser is reraising lighter than 15% (which according to your read he could be) you could probably shove on him profitably.
The trouble is this does not consider the cut-off raiser. And also I know this a winner take all tournament but getting them to fold will only add 1275 to your stack, and if they do call you"re behind more often than not.
I think I would still fold, and look for a post flop opportunity rather than get all in now in a rather marginal situation.
Santino67:
Isn"t it hellish playing against people who"re willing to raise it up to 20*BB in the first level, and only 5 handed :o
That"s even worse than our local casino 10 seat 3000 chip SnG, which can very quickly turn into a complete all-in/fold slugfest..........but our blinds at least start at 100/100 :D
Fold & let them fight it out or put the lot in the middle then send them all home for spoiling your night >:(
REvans84:
Just elaborating on what you said Departed.
I mentioned earlier that he 3 bets light ALOT and his range of 3 betting was Any Pair, any Ace and any Broadway which equals a total of 329 hands.
Once I have shoved his range narrows down (But not much at all really, I should of mentioned this earlier - He will still call a 4 bet/4 bet shove light too) to calling me with 66+, A7+ and still any Broadway which equals a total of 225 hands. So he is folding 104 hands.
104/329 = 32%.
My equity according to Poker Stove against his calling range is 59.86%.
So,
The amount of chips on average I would win when he folds to my shove is:
1275 (pot) x 0.32 = 408.
The amount of chips I would win on average when he calls and I win the pot at a showdown is:
(10275 x 0.68) x 0.599 = 4185
The amount of chips I would lose on average when he calls and I lose the pot at a showdown is:
(-5000 x 0.68) x 0.401 = -1363
So my EV is -1363 + 408 + 4185 = 3230.
Adding over 60% to my stack surely cant be bad! :-p
Departed:
--- Quote from: REvans84 on August 08, 2008, 14:38:13 PM ---
Once I have shoved his range narrows down (But not much at all really, I should of mentioned this earlier - He will still call a 4 bet/4 bet shove light too) to calling me with 66+, A7+ and still any Broadway which equals a total of 225 hands. So he is folding 104 hands.
104/329 = 32%.
--- End quote ---
Ah ok - if he calls a shove really light as well then that certainly changes thing and means a shove from you is going to be profitable long-term.
--- Quote from: REvans84 on August 08, 2008, 14:38:13 PM ---The amount of chips I would win on average when he calls and I win the pot at a showdown is:
(10275 x 0.68) x 0.599 = 4185
--- End quote ---
You can only take the incremental increase into account in your calculation.
So it is 5275 * 0.68 * 0.599 = 2149
This means overall your EV is 2k lower, ie about +1k overall
So still profitable based on the ranges you stated but only adds 20% to stack, rather than 60%
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