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Luck and Poker

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Maxriddles:
I"ve never played on Stars much but decided last night to deposit and play some 180 seater SNGs to try to build a bankroll. I played 9 in total winning one and failing to cash in the other 8. My style of play was identical in all nine, and on the rare occasions I was behind when the chips went in I was up against a big but unlikely hand.
The only difference I could see between the one I won and the ones I lost was luck or more to the point the timing of it. I seemed to suffer a lot of very bad luck in some of those I failed to cash in, that said I also suffered a lot of bad luck in the one I won but the difference was that it was that it wasn"t at critical times. I also had one piece of outrages good luck with AK v AA, the river king giving me a set, although tourney life was not on the line
My feeling on luck in MTT poker is that it is a big big part of it, or more so the timing of it. You will have both good and bad luck in a MTT but doing the right thing at the right time/position should see you okay in the long run. The problem with that is that the recreational player (like me) probably doesn"t play enough MTTs to see this even itself out and don"t see the good luck very often and mistakenly think they are on a bad run where their luck is actually standard. 
Any other thoughts on this?

Chipaccrual:

--- Quote from: Maxriddles on October 27, 2008, 10:20:00 AM ---
I"ve never played on Stars much but decided last night to deposit and play some 180 seater SNGs to try to build a bankroll. I played 9 in total winning one and failing to cash in the other 8. My style of play was identical in all nine, and on the rare occasions I was behind when the chips went in I was up against a big but unlikely hand.
The only difference I could see between the one I won and the ones I lost was luck or more to the point the timing of it. I seemed to suffer a lot of very bad luck in some of those I failed to cash in, that said I also suffered a lot of bad luck in the one I won but the difference was that it was that it wasn"t at critical times. I also had one piece of outrages good luck with AK v AA, the river king giving me a set, although tourney life was not on the line
My feeling on luck in MTT poker is that it is a big big part of it, or more so the timing of it. You will have both good and bad luck in a MTT but doing the right thing at the right time/position should see you okay in the long run. The problem with that is that the recreational player (like me) probably doesn"t play enough MTTs to see this even itself out and don"t see the good luck very often and mistakenly think they are on a bad run where their luck is actually standard. 
Any other thoughts on this?

--- End quote ---


Spot on.  I have thought this for a while.  I guess the question is when is it best to try your luck with hands.  For example,

I was playing on Pokerstars yesterday in a $3 rebuy ($40k gtd).  6500ish runners.  Had been playing for 5+ hours and had my fair share of luck along the way, but was sitting 4/71 on about 500k, in the money ($80ish).

Had just got moved tables, and was on with the chipleader (1.5m).  I am dealt  tc td utg, blinds are 5k/10k.  I raise to 40k.  Chipleader in mid position shoves all-in for his 1.5m stack.  Folds back round to me, what do you do ?

The cash doesn"t really start rising until about 20th and I"m convinced he"s stealing, but am probably up against at least one overcard.

kaysing:
Nothing scientific to back it up but I reckon that luck accounts for about 80%  and skill the other 20%. May evenbe higher, but that is why it is difficult to continually win and only a very few regularly make it to the big time.

Last night I won a live mtt - 25 runners.  Got heads up with 50k of chips against 260k.  The big bit of luck I had was:

blinds 10/20k
my stack 114k
opp stack  200k

I am on the button and after a few hands of folding I push with  8h  th, to find I am up against  ad and ah - talk about comedy and timing.  At least I have 2 live cards!!

The flop includes 2 hearts to give me some hope of a flush.  The turn is a T, increasing my optimism.  Well, the river shows another T and I double up.

Three hands later it is all over - now that is poker, but to get to that position I had to fold some big hands.  It is really important in tournament play to know when to change gears which is what makes it such a beautiful game compared to the grind of cash.  (Only my opinion - not looking for an arguement or anything). 


Happy hunting


Kay

noble1:
Every poker player gets variance,losing confidence in your poker game or just getting pissed that you lost is a common result for a lot of players.
There is luck at winning when the cards are turned face up [PRE-FLOP], or outdraw luck [POST FLOP]. There is luck in the actual dealing of the cards themselves, or how the **** did that fish get AA for the 300thtime this session luck.There is even luck of the seat you get. In tournaments the dynamics of the table that your at can affect your own variance,the truth is, if you play in games with more aggressive players you will have more swings than in games where more players limp and players are less aggressive, especially with their made hands, you will have less variance.So if your style is aggressive you will experience a lot of variance, if you have a tight style you will have more consistent results but both styles work long term if you make more GOOD DECISIONS than bad ones.
So what we have to focus on is to understand what makes us a winning and losing player? It"s not whether you play draws, aggressively, whether you are tight or loose, all that matters is making good decisions.
For me that is what poker is about - variance and decisions [good or bad] and i accept that i cant win every time i get a pair of aces or kings.

Chipaccrual:

--- Quote from: noble1 on October 27, 2008, 16:47:33 PM ---
Every poker player gets variance,losing confidence in your poker game or just getting pissed that you lost is a common result for a lot of players.
There is luck at winning when the cards are turned face up [PRE-FLOP], or outdraw luck [POST FLOP]. There is luck in the actual dealing of the cards themselves, or how the **** did that fish get AA for the 300thtime this session luck.There is even luck of the seat you get. In tournaments the dynamics of the table that your at can affect your own variance,the truth is, if you play in games with more aggressive players you will have more swings than in games where more players limp and players are less aggressive, especially with their made hands, you will have less variance.So if your style is aggressive you will experience a lot of variance, if you have a tight style you will have more consistent results but both styles work long term if you make more GOOD DECISIONS than bad ones.
So what we have to focus on is to understand what makes us a winning and losing player? It"s not whether you play draws, aggressively, whether you are tight or loose, all that matters is making good decisions.
For me that is what poker is about - variance and decisions [good or bad] and i accept that i cant win every time i get a pair of aces or kings.

--- End quote ---


Nicely put.  :)

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