Poker Forum > Strategy
Why ?
Mikeyboy9361:
Aaaah, got it now. Doh! Thanks Jon.
kinboshi:
--- Quote from: noble1 on January 14, 2009, 14:25:12 PM ---
ok here are my thoughts ;D i gotta be quick so forgive me as it is nearly time for the dogs to have there walk :)
believe it or not this move is happening a lot in high buy in mtts by players who understand sng push/fold poker and whether or not it is +ev or -ev..As far as i know it was eric haber - sheets and sorrel mizzi - Imper1um/zangbezan24 who started it.
They work out how often you will call if they shove to think if it is +ev or not,often doing this when the antes are in play especially if they think there opponent is tight.
Now i AM NOT saying this guy did it knowing the reason behind it,but he may of saw some others doing it and is just copying without knowing the maths or the concept behind it [more than likely]
i will post the maths out of interest later,as if any of you come across a good sng/mtt player in a high buy in mtt doing this you"ll be able to call wider than what they are expecting :)
--- End quote ---
Happened to me in a big live tournament. Day 2 and down to about 80 runners from 400, pays 10%.
I"m getting short and have been in push or fold mode for a good few hours, without really getting anywhere!
Player to my right is the chip leader on the table, and whenever it was folded round to him on the button or SB he would shove with ATC.
Put me in a hell of a situation. I know he has nothing, but if I call I"m putting my tournament life on the line. I"d rather be the first in and not calling - but not getting the opportunity too often.
Then I"m in the BB it"s folded round to him (his name was Mycock which has no bearing on the hand, but is amusing) - he shoves, and I look down at ac kc. Obviously I"m probably favourite here and I call knowing that I"m going to need some luck.
He had 75o. So I was 65/35 favourite. 9c :3h: 6d board, and I"m getting out of my seat. Ten on the turn and I"m thinking that I just might hang on.....7 on the river.
The thing is, even if I won that pot and doubled up, Mycock would have still made enough from the previous steals and pushes to cover his loss. It"s an interesting strategy for a big stack and difficult to exploit if you"re short and sat immediately to his left.
Roscopiko:
The flaw to this strategy is that it does not work at all for lower buy-in cos you get called by all sorts all the time and then you are just playing bingo.
Its a levels on levels thing innit!! You know hes got nothing, but he knows you know, so maybe he has.............. ???
Swinebag:
--- Quote from: kinboshi on January 14, 2009, 15:07:41 PM ---
Happened to me in a big live tournament.
--- End quote ---
It was EPT Copenhagen but Dan is too modest to mention this
noble1:
10% call range assigned for chipaccrual - 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo
That means that when we push, he is going to fold 90% of the time, and we will win the blinds and antes.
Villain has the mighty 8s :3s: and his equity is 30% against chipaccruals range
90% of the time villain wins 600 chips
of the 10% that he is called he will win 3 times[30%] and lose 7 times[70%]
to work out the whether or not it is +EV or not , we work out 3 things......
WIN if chipaccrual folds - 0.90*600 [blinds+antes] = 540
of the 10% that chipaccrual calls and villain wins [600+3520 chipaccruals stack=4120]
WIN if chipaccrual calls - 0.10*0.30*4120 = 123.60 [the 0.30 is the %30 equity]
villain is going to lose 70% so that works out like -
LOSE if chipaccrual calls - 0.10*0.70*-4120 = -288
to work out the EV we combine the 3 results -
540+123.60-288 = 375.6 it is a positive number +EV so believe it or not it is a good shove in mathematical theory.
The villain will have 9.3bb left if he loses 7% of the time or increases his stack 90% of the time by 10% if chipaccrual folds or increases his stack by 60% 93% of the time if called and wins [sucks out ;D]
thats the maths anyhows............if based on chipaccrual being tight :P
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