Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Horse Experts ... (Aintree)
Swinebag:
I have a great GN record (3 wins and a second in 4 years) but normally leave this untill final decs (missing out on value), but from what has been mentioned so far
war of attrition and comply or die seem too heavily laden
irish invader has serious stamina issues
rambling minster looks a great pick and ticks all the boxes (well done on getting 20/1 louis)
Honeybadg:
... when I punted Irish Invader it was with a view to lay (and take the free-roll) ... but there appears to be endless money for it ... so perhaps I will let it go and hope for good ground!
I may chop the Comply or Die bet ...
Rambling Minister ... getting pretty short now.
When I studied the form pre these bets - it didn"t appear there was an obvious choice.
I don"t really think Comply or Die has too much weight - just no form.
War of Attrition is nagging at me ... I do like it!
L
Honeybadg:
Irish Invader is now best priced 27/1 which seems nuts to me ... Paddy Power down to 16/1 ... all good news for me as I
can close for a hefty free roll on the day.
It does seem way to short given it"s lack of exposure over anything like the distance but does the money talk?
Really looking forward to the race on Saturday.
I dare say there will be more money for the Irish raider ... but Rambling Minister is the one for me ... best priced at 12/1
Hard to see it starting at more than 10/1.
Pondering.
L
Honeybadg:
War of Attrition out of the big race.
Took another proper look at this, this morning.
My Will is plenty short @ 8/1 - albeit under Ruby Walsh - Paul Nicholls defending his 0 from 40 record in the National.
Not many horses winning with 11 stone ... so I am defo binning Comply or Die (also no form).
2005 - Hedgehunter - 11 stone 1 W Mullins - R Walsh 7/1
1988 - Rhyme & Reason - 11 stone 0 D Elsworth - B Powell 10/1
Worth also noting Papillon 10 stone 12 (won easily) T Walsh - R Walsh 10/1
I cannot get excited about Butler"s Cabin.
But for the weight I would be getting involved with Black Apalachi. (E/W Value?)
So I am sticking with Rambling Minster (10 stone 9) and (stamina doubt but massively gambled on) Irish Invader (10 stone 9) ... trained by W Mullins ... the next Hedge Hunter!?
Irish Invader is now as low as 14/1 (25/1 still available and 28/1 on Betfair ... but I expect not for long)
L
bigredders:
not had a proper look at this and my record in the national is quite shocking (due to me always going for value bets)
i really like the look of 2 of nigel twiston davies". battlecry might just have the class to win this and knowhere, which i backed last year was going really well when unseating last year and is a fantastic price at 66-1
i think state of play will be my main bet though.
mind you after my cheltenham picks pls everyone ignore this post! ;D
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