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How to pick a grand national winner

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Swinebag:
Intro

For a lot of races, form is a deciding factor when making a selection. The Grand National is a unique race in the british racing calendar, in that there is no real form to go on. Therefore, it is useful to make your selection on a more scientific / trends basis rather than form. It is a myth that the National is a lottery. In a lot of ways it is quite an easy race to predict if you follow these basic guidlines......(you will need to go to sportinglife.com to check out the horses though)

Weight

Given the stiffness of test that the GN poses, you can pretty much put a line through horses carrying 11st or more. I go for 11st2 to be on the safe side.

nationality

No french winner for ages (100 years plus) from a large entry list. French horses just haven"t got the bloodstock for 4m4f. Irish trained horses have a great record.

age

pick horses aged between 8 and 12 (9 and 10 year olds have the best record)

headgear

comply or die was the first horse in 75 years to win with headgear on (It ticked all the other boxes though)

stamina

look to horses that have run over at least 24f (preferably 26f). A lot of GN horses are run over 16-20f for the season then expected to cope with the GN...not going to happen!!

national course experience

Look to horses that have run over the big fences before, either at the GN before, but preferably at another race (either earlier in the season or at the aintree festival before)

jumping ability

those with at least 2 Fs or Us against their name are best avoided, especially those that have raced and fallen at Aintree before. (hedgehunter and West tip are the only exceptions that stand out)

horses that ran in the cheltenham festival 3 weeks before are best avoided

what it says on the tin really. the best GN horses are trained specifically for this race and can even have their final prep race as a hurdle race on some dodgy provincial track (not at the world cup of jump racing!!)

Tactics

Prominent racers rule here. Discard horses that like to be held up. Most winners are normally there or thereabouts after the first circuit.

market forces

look to the first 8 in the betting. This is normally where I start when making a selection. As i put earlier, it is a myth that the GN is a lottery. The good thing is that because it is a 40 horse race you can get tremendous value on any horse in the top 8 (even the favourite). Cynics will point to Silver birch (33/1) and a few others over the years but as a trend, this is a pretty strong one.  

Swinebag:
I posted this in the knowledge that I am not going to cardiff so am safe from a good lynching. I will put my predictions at the final declaration stage. Good luck everyone

Honeybadg:
I look forward to your selections ...

I agree with most of what you write ... but Comply or Die did break the headgear rule ... though had won over 4 miles at Newcastle 2/3 months before - Dominant factor.

In terms of outsiders:

1987 - Maori Venture - 28/1
1989 - Little Polveir - 28/1 (I backed at 33/1)
1995 - Royal Athlete - 40/1 (80/1 in the run up to the big day)
2001 - Red Marauder - 33/1
2002 - Bindaree - 20/1
2007 - Silver Birch - 33/1

Also worth noting that Papillon was 33/1 (which I backed) on the morning of the National backed into 10/1 on the day.

Do you think the 11 stone (or 11 stone 2) rule holds this year ... most years there are lots running off 10 stone 0 ... this year I think the lightest is going to be c10 stone 4 or 5.

I think that I did say it was "a lottery" elsewhere ... maybe a skill based lottery.

I will give you a friendly challenge - select 4 horses - 10 points for the win, 6pts for second place, 4pts for third place, 2pts for fourth. (Or some other points system)

Louis

Swinebag:
good points louis,

but I did make the point about comply or die in my OP.

as for the outsiders, you picked 6 in 20 years, which sort of backs my point up from a trends view.

from those

silver birch was a sneaky one as it had been injured, sold by the owner and was no longer a nicholls trained horse, but it did have serious course history (was gutted I missed that one). Red marauder is considered a freak result on the tail end of foot and mouth.

I do think the weight trend is getting weaker and looks set to be broken soon. This years national is set to be run on good ground so it could be this year, especially with, as you say a much compressed handicap.

I"ll happily have a 4 v 4. though I think we may pick some horses the same so it could be 2 v 2. Points system is fine

Honeybadg:
Headgear - I know you wrote it - but are you saying to avoid them this year - or neutral? - I would just ignore as may be weak horses that usually get their hats put on for the race.

6 from 20 ... lots of other 16/1 shots too (which may have drifted in and out of the top 8 during betting).

Papillion was outside the top 8 on the morning of the race.

4 vs 4.

I am sure you wont be on Irish Invader! (I am!)

Looking forward to the challenge.

L

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