Poker Forum > Strategy

Do you call?

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noble1:
I don"t like your call in the bb with a utg raise and [in your words] a consistent winner smooth calling........
Your oop with a easily dominated hand but as played you are hoping for a str8 or 2 pair when you call , well you have got your wish and now you have to take a deep breath and go all in...

opponent ranges -
utg - AA KK QQ JJ AQs+o AKs+o KQs KJs
mp raises to isolate - if your read is correct and they are decent i"d discount them having a set here because of his stack size if he had a set he would most likely smooth call utg hoping/want you to come along for the ride and try to KO you both and build up a monster stack...So his raise could be a very similar range to the utg AA KK AQs AKs KQs KTs+o maybe a crappy Axs flush draw if he has opened up his range and is getting aggressive...

The fact you hold QJ lessens the chance of villains holding JJ or QQ and without any soul reads/notes on villains or not being deep enough to lead and define your hand we can use this to discount as unlikely in villains ranges , it is a definite call for me here......

Swinebag:
I"d fold pre flop, but as played, fold is probably best here given your read on doobs.

First raiser could have A x hearts or AQo,AJo. If he"s a donk he could have TT,99, 77. Cant put him on a really strong hand

doobs has possibly got, T9s, JJ, QJs and AQ hearts and possibly 88 or QQ. I dont think he would do this with AQo.

Without a read, I"d struggle to fold this....what am i hoping for by calling a raise OOP with QJ after all.

agree with chris that this not really a sat and you have to play FTW here

UKChamp:
I call, sets are the obvious fear but are such a small part of their ranges (especially given that your QJ reduces the combinations of QQJ sets - with plyr2 the only one likely to hold a set of 8s here) that you have plenty of value in the call. Plus if they had a set I am not sure pos one plays it that fast. The first push has a pretty wide range - hes certainly not expecting anyone to flat call with QJ preflop and so probably figures TPTK or overpair is good here, and also semi bluffs AK/AKs/ here often (with weaker players pushing with KQ/AJ). Second raise is a worry but given what we know about the first raise this could be an isolation play with TPTK or ov pair also. There isnt a lot we are behind and the upside of winning the pot and chipping up is far greater than folding your way to victory imo. The blinds are creeping up and if you fold, whilst you are not perilously short are we likely to have any better positions to take down such a comparably large pot?

duke3016:

--- Quote from: AMRN on April 07, 2009, 16:23:30 PM ---
Fold in this spot.

I don"t always fold qc jc though (just ask Ger)

--- End quote ---


just

Honeybadg:
I did call it with a chance to become chip leader with 10 runners left.

My thought process was Tavira"s all in represented AA, KK or AQ, all of which would delight me.

Doobs" also calling (going all in) is a nightmare really ... my thought process here was he had a Flush draw at least ... very unlikely to have JJ or QQ as argued ... 88 I would just have to suffer.

Effectively assuming a flush draw only - I am just better than 50% for a massive pot.

The danger in folding is that I end up having a race for a pot with no added value.

The plus side is that I am definately alive!

So I call.

Tavira turns over  :as: ac - beautiful
Doobs turn over :  ah th - nightmare!

I still have 38.5% chance to win against all his draws : AA has 13.2% : Doobs 48.2%

Turn is  5d

So I go favourite ...

River is  7h

Sigh.

Doobs is the new chip leader - though failed to qualify.

My main thought here is what people think about such positions - what is best to do?

ah th is a nighmare holding but even assuming this hand.

I have a 38.5% chance of 50,809 chips E(x) = 19,562
I fold I have 16,405 for sure.

Only 2 seats.

I had a similar position last night when in 12th in the Betfair $20k g"tee ... sitting in 12th (in the money) with an overpair to what looked liked an obvious flush draw.

10th-12th pays $240

1st = $6,000
2nd= $4,000
3rd= $2,380
4th = $1,600
5th = $1,300
6th = $1,000
7th = $,700
8th = $ 520
9th = $340

I have the option to make a tiny re-raise (they bet 12,600 - the pot) which will be automatically called so assuming I am correct I bet 17,500 chips to win a total pot of c48,000.

But of course I stand the chance of dying!

In both hands there is the small danger of sets being already made.

48,000 would have put me third of 12 with 3 short stacks - let"s assume they go.

Then a tough last 9 to fight through but starting 3rd - every chance to finish 3rd with some +/- distibution.

If I fold I am safe but in 10th place - with the likelihood of needing a race some time soon to progress.

I put the chips in with my  tc ts

Flop is  7d 5d :3h:

The Villian

Flips  qd td

Pretty much as expected - so I am 53.5% to win ... 46.5% to die!

What do people think of such situations?

When you make the hero call and hold you are in epic shape.

Fold - and I will have a medium to high probability of a medium sized prize.

The more conservative players did take the smaller prizes on the final table - as is usually the case.

None of the prizes are life changing - but creates bank roll to enter other events looking for the elusive big pay day.

I look forward to your thoughts.

Louis

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