Poker Forum > Strategy
Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?
Marty719:
I think flatting the 2800 is appaulingly awful!! Means we can get pushed off on the turn, or an action killer mite come down. Def the worst decision imo!!
If the German player is creative aggro then I also believe we do have some f/e, as foggy cannot cont w/ an overpair w/ the action.
noble1:
i,m hoping some1 will give the maths a crack to see if shoving is +cEV even if we think zeee agg german is making a move, but how often do we think % wise to make shove profitable,,also we still have the problem of foggy and our blockers making his range the way the action has gone more in favour of 2 pair , set hands rather than over pairs and TPTK.
JUST 1 TIME :) i"d like to see some logic/reasoning or some maths written alongside the words SHOVE as to why it is considered the optimum move when we are so deep in chips. :-\
sorry if i"m pushing but it is an interesting hand/situation imo.
noble1:
sigh ok some maths :(
i will count all stacks for the 3 players pre as 9000 ...
pot - 4800
i"ll give foggy a range of - AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KhKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, AcQc, AhQh, AsQs, QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, Td9d, AcQh, AcQs, AhQc, AhQs, AsQc, AsQh, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh
zeee germans range after seeing kinboshi pot and foggy reraise imo is more 2 pairs or sets - QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s,QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh
as i dont know if we get 1 or 2 callers then i"ll just work out for 1 caller being the german AKdd versus potentially with a sets or 2 pair which kinboshi is 39% to win against..
pot 4800
kinboshi 8600 left
german 6200 left
using my maths i work it out as 19600 chips at risk which we stand to win 39% of the time if called,obv we lose 8600 if we dont win.
our required fold equity is thus 956/[956+4800] 16.6%
if we think the german calls 2 pair or better and this is 100% of his range then shoving is not good here.I give zeee aggressive german a strong range because he has just seen pot bet then reraise on a juicy co-ordinated flop and zeee german has 3bet quite small,after seeing pot bet then reraise i tend to favour that he would flat his drawing/1 pair hands at best.
http://dailyvariance.com/fe-calculator.php - have a play with it..
things get interesting if foggy is the caller as the fold equity for him is 6.5% and without much info to go by and giving him a broad range to reraise with and thinking he might fold over pairs etc then yes shoving is good if we were to think zeee german will fold.But all in all with boshis AKdd blockers on this texture flop,am i the only one who thinks this favours the villains ranges being strong? i must be getting nitty ;D
can anyone put foggy or zeee german on a range because they have played them before?
Marty719:
fwiw I dnt think either r calling with overpairs in this spot.
noble1:
--- Quote from: Marty719 on November 28, 2009, 18:32:00 PM ---
fwiw I dnt think either r calling with overpairs in this spot.
--- End quote ---
what info u basing that on marty? also thats only 6 combos which leaves 18 combos that fit the action of either player on the flop based on kinboshis lead and his blockers, i still think we get called by 2 pair or better about 85% of the time here.
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