Poker Forum > Strategy
Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?
JamieCarra:
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 30, 2009, 13:16:39 PM ---
--- Quote from: JamieCarra on November 30, 2009, 13:02:17 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 27, 2009, 17:32:06 PM ---
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
--- End quote ---
Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.
--- End quote ---
No - If he has QQ or JJ, we can hit four 10s, and seven diamonds (7 no good)... so only 11 outs before the turn, reducing to 10 outs after the turn
--- End quote ---
Ok fair enough, could probably do with thinking before typing, but I"m still more than happy to get the loot in here.
Shove > Fold > Call
noble1:
bloody fold equity does my head in , there is another way which is easier to pick up which i"ll put in a later post.
Looking at boshis scenario just from a pure is it +or- ev if we shove but think we have no FE i"ll put up some numbers and try to explain it as best i can so that for those that dont know but are interested then they can take something from the thread..
EV - to determine if u have positive expectation your pot/implied odds need to be better than your calculated equity.
if you were to pokerstove boshis AKdd versus a set he would have 33% equity,he has 8600 behind so if he shoves and is only called by the german boshi will win 10600 33% of the time but 67% of the time he will lose 9000.
as i put villains on equal stacks of 9000 on the flop i do not count boshis 400 lead as in the pot,we have foggys 1200 plus preflop 400 equals 1600 - we are playing for the germans stack of 9000 - shove 9000 to win 10600
WIN 33% of 10600 = 3498
LOSE 67% of 9000 = 6030
WIN - LOSE = EV
3498-6030 = EV -2532 [not good we want positive expectation]
ok now i"ll do the same for a scenario if the german calls with 2 pair which rounded on stove makes boshi 45%
WIN 45% of 10600 = 4770
LOSE 55% of 9000 = 4950
WIN - LOSE = EV
4770-4950 = EV -180 [close but no cigar to breaking even]
anyhows i hope this helps someone when they want to review there hands to see if it was + or - ev , helpful in mtts as well as cash..
the numbers are pretty close but not 100% , u can figure in ties but mostly if ties are below 3% then there is not much significance on the numbers imho plus i rounded up and down...Also i use the equity % not the win %"s
if you wanted to work Fold Equity,things start getting a little trickier but not hard to learn,i"ll do an example later but
roughly it is - we multiply the EV if he calls number by the chance that we think he does call % and get a number....
then using the what we think fold % number, we use that number in the same methods above to get a FE....
we would then add FE and EVcall to get a EVtotal with FE built in...
noble1:
--- Quote ---The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.
--- End quote ---
i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.
kinboshi:
What more information do people need here to help with their decision?
For those saying shove (well, everyone really), what does the German 3-bet with on this flop with? I actually put him quite a wide range, with the worst I expect him to show being two pair - unless he"s betting with complete air. The bluff is part of his range, but I only expect to see it a small percentage of the time.
Foggy"s a decent player, and he knows me, so knows I"m not leading out OOP with bugger all on a flop with such a texture. So for him to raise me, he has TPTK or better (imo).
I think I posted the stack sizes earlier. The German has us both covered, and I am shorter than the other two - but obviously if I win an all-in coup then either would be pretty short.
Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.
Marty719:
--- Quote from: kinboshi on November 30, 2009, 13:44:13 PM ---
What more information do people need here to help with their decision?
--- End quote ---
how does the German perceive u and Foggy?
--- Quote from: kinboshi on November 30, 2009, 13:44:13 PM ---
Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.
--- End quote ---
Sweet................ship ;) :P
--- Quote from: noble1 on November 30, 2009, 13:30:06 PM ---
if you wanted to work Fold Equity,things start getting a little trickier but not hard to learn,i"ll do an example later but
roughly it is - we multiply the EV if he calls number by the chance that we think he does call % and get a number....
then using the what we think fold % number, we use that number in the same methods above to get a FE....
we would then add FE and EVcall to get a EVtotal with FE built in...
--- End quote ---
EV= [EV(fold)]* x + [EV(call)*(1-x) ??? ::) ???
Edit: JamieCarra assures me EV= [EV(fold)]*( x ) +{ [EV(call & win)(y) + [EV(call & lose)*(1-y)}*(1-x)
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