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Was this straight forward?

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noble1:
if we assume that when u shove that he calls 100% and put him on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo  [he is getting 1.92 to 1 to call so without info 100% call]

just work out if its cEV+ mikey , 96s versus this range is 37%

he calls u win 67500   .37*67500= 24975
he call u lose 45000   .63*-45000= -28350

24975 + -28350 = -3365

so cEV its a fold , it all depends mikey on how wide of a range u want to put villain on and how much of that range u think he will call with, if u think he folds say 20% then it is +cEV   [.20*22500= 4500] + the above is +1125 , not a huge edge but anymore FE than 20% then its a obv push...

Eck:

--- Quote from: Roscopiko on January 06, 2010, 10:18:55 AM ---
unless u have seen him raise fold like 100 times before in this situation it has to be a fold

--- End quote ---


Nearly made it in before Noble got his calculator out there. As Rosco said for me unless we have seen him raise fold a lot I am def passing this. Think the more obvious point is your comment about playing a conservative game, think you need to be more aggressive/adventorous. I have been on your table a couple of times and was going to mention it before I think but i found it quite easy to see when you weren"t keen on your hand and was able to raise/jam a couple of times to win the pot. can"t remember specifics but you were likely min raising small pairs and 3 or 4xing big hands.

Just a thought and only from a small observation....but anyway back to the maths...

Marty719:
Fold seems pretty good here.  Jam next hand.

What do ppl think of flatting, and then open-shoving evry flop?

cincicrappykid:
do u feel lucky ? may be an option thats what amrn does   ::)

noble1:
interesting how Eck picked up on your bet sizing Mikey , so either make every raise the same std amount or if playing Eck
throw a few curve balls in and min raise big pairs [mix ure range up] etc or if he is betting u off your hand post-flop then depending on position throw in some check raises on the flop or turn etc etc [sorry Eck  :) lol i wana see mikey take advantage of his image with u lol ;)

back to the maths - if we were to put villain on this range 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo but that if u jam and he folds just A6s A7s A8s A2o-A6o JTo QTo KTo  just 11 hands , then that would give 33% fold equity so a deffo MTFBWY shove.. obv it would be better here if u had a feel for villains range and his tendencies, for me if villain has been raising a lot is irrelevant , it is how often do we think he folds if we jam.. Even if villains raise range is 50% then mikey if called 100% of the time is 38% to win..

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