Poker Forum > Strategy
Bomb out....how would others approach?
MintTrav:
--- Quote from: AMRN on January 12, 2010, 12:23:00 PM ---
difficult one, and I think your action can vary dependant on your desired outcome.
Given that you didn"t intend to play this, and had planned to take the T$, I suspect that a min cash would probably suit your initial intentions, and folding here to limp over the bubble would be ok.
--- End quote ---
Agreed. If the $162 buy-in was significant for you, prob best to bank the increased amount for min-cash and then play on.
Otherwise, shoving, folding or a flat call in position are all possible, but imo a reraise to 5k is the worst possible option. You haven"t said what the purpose of your bet was. What did you want him to do?
- Call? - Hmmm, looks like he has something, but you have no idea what. You have created a pot of 12k with 11k behind. You"re prob in for a tough time on any flop.
- Shove? - Did you want him to shove on you? Apparently not, so why set it up for him?
- Fold? - If he does you were prob winning, so you"ve lost your customer, but at least avoided being outdrawn.
I think you need to know your desired response from him to your action before you take it. Also, know beforehand how you will then respond to whatever he does.
So, in this situation, call, shove, fold, whatever, but don"t reraise to one-third of your stack with no plan.
AMRN:
--- Quote from: MintTrav on January 12, 2010, 15:20:27 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on January 12, 2010, 12:23:00 PM ---
difficult one, and I think your action can vary dependant on your desired outcome.
Given that you didn"t intend to play this, and had planned to take the T$, I suspect that a min cash would probably suit your initial intentions, and folding here to limp over the bubble would be ok.
--- End quote ---
Agreed. If the $162 buy-in was significant for you, prob best to bank the increased amount for min-cash and then play on.
Otherwise, shoving, folding or a flat call in position are all possible, but imo a reraise to 5k is the worst possible option. You haven"t said what the purpose of your bet was. What did you want him to do?
- Call? - Hmmm, looks like he has something, but you have no idea what. You have created a pot of 12k with 11k behind. You"re prob in for a tough time on any flop.
- Shove? - Did you want him to shove on you? Apparently not, so why set it up for him?
- Fold? - If he does you were prob winning, so you"ve lost your customer, but at least avoided being outdrawn.
I think you need to know your desired response from him to your action before you take it. Also, know beforehand how you will then respond to whatever he does.
So, in this situation, call, shove, fold, whatever, but don"t reraise to one-third of your stack with no plan.
--- End quote ---
wot he said!
Sugarnes:
Interesting discussion - thanks for everyone"s thoughts. No plan - no hope ho-hum :)
In terms of attitude or approach to the tourney I agree with AMRN and WYoung - in terms of tournament approach a scrapping $320 cash would be a big hit for me and one to be pleased with. But my mindset changed shortly into the tournament and I was much more focussed on better MTT play and not playing scared poker - something I"m a general expert at (great at doubling my money at $5-10 entries!) and want to change this year. Anyhow in retrospect I am pleased with the approach and most of my play but probably should"ve employed better bankroll management for this kinda buy-in.
Back to the hand. Rather than add much I would probably clarify my read on Villian"s play (which in this case seems to fit when they"re on there backs) - I think he raises initially on a wide range (low pairs mid-high suited connectors) - I may underestimate the importance he puts on position but I think the table dynamic says a raise is getting through a lot of the time and I"m stretching a bit but I do think his going quiet period was more about his potential spots being picked off rather than him changing pace and being a rock. His shove range is much smaller I would probably include AJ,KQs but my gut said his deliberation was a genuine marginal decision (i.e. not pausing for effect with AA, KK or slow-playing for time with rags) and most of the time I was calling to race.
Putting that down and reading what everyone has put confirms more and more my main criticism looking back - raising wasn"t the best choice there. Doesn"t seem like firm and unanimous decision but bottom line seems call / fold (to a c-bet on the kinda flop I had) or shove straight up would have been better choices most of the time...
Couple of questions I have thinking further on the scenario, one of which was alluded to by noble1.
- If you know he has 88 do you pick this spot to race, or would most have held back? The thing about the approaching bubble for me is that while it is only 10 people to fall that's more than 13% of the field - there"s a while yet - and much as I think I have enough to scrape through it will be an absolute scrape unless I hit some premium hands (that hold).
- Other thing bit out of left field what"s your plan if you"re the SB? There"s a cheeky part of me that says getting your money in with a very wide range is a play with some sense - he risks (at worst) just over half his stack but with the action before him and to come he could hit a FT-size stack in one swoop.
Marty719:
If I know he has 88 and will never fold then I fold.
If I know he has 88 and will fold a reasonable % of the time I will shove.
If he is raising such a wide range inc s/c and KJ KQ hands then shoving is 100% +EV
Im not calling off 50% of my stack as the SB without a monster. It is wayyyy too big a portion of my 35k stack, 10 places can take a while when av stack is 20x.
noble1:
--- Quote ---Button 16k Moi
SB 35k
BB 11k
--- End quote ---
--- Quote ---If he is raising such a wide range inc s/c and KJ KQ hands then shoving is 100% +EV
--- End quote ---
quite how we put villain on such a wide range at his stack size is beyond me with only that we have seen make him 2 calls with 99 and AJ , with no other showdowns being mentioned plus the term solid all adds upto ??? wtf
To much assumption me thinks - When we put all our eggs into one basket by making a very precise, possibly incorrect deduction about an opponent"s cards, and when we base our betting decisions on that deduction, we front-load the difficulty of poker onto our (flawed) ability to extract (incomplete) information from a (loosely-wired) poker situation.
Our job is to play in such a way as to maximize our EV not against the single most-likely hand, but against the range of plausible hands an opponent could hold.With only the position he has raised from and his stack size to assume such a wide range is just plain BAD...Also with the call happy SB and a short stack BB then this makes the assumption that villains range is wide even worse imho...Add in the two players behind with call ranges of TT+ AK+ then at best imo everyone folds to a shove 28% of the time,this is not cEV+ thus how on earth we can think its mEV+ to race now ""to increase our chances of winning"" is ?????
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