Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Cheltenham festival
janc:
--- Quote from: monkeyman on March 17, 2010, 22:17:04 PM ---
A little bit better than tuesday, backing Peddler"s Cross at 7-1 at least put me marginally ahead on the day. Today"s finishing positions 8th,1st,5th,4th,9th,7th,2nd. Here goes nothing:
1.30 Jewson Novices Chase - Nicanor beat Denman over hurdles at the festival in 2006 and since then, has spent a lot of time injured. He got off the mark over fences at the sixth attempt on his last run and has been mixing it with some of Ireland"s best novices this season. His handicap mark of 140 looks very reasonable as does his current price of 14-1.
2.05 Pertemps Hurdle Final. Favourite Alfie Sherrin is terrible value at 3-1 for a race this competitive. Palypso De Creek has only had 3 runs in this country, 2 of which have been over fences. He definitely stays the trip and could potentially be unexposed and I"m very,very tempted by the 33-1 on offer
2.40 Ryanair Chase. This will be taken by an outsider. Deep Purple"s jumping is sound and I think he has the most solid form this season of any horse in the field. Jack The Giant has had his injury problems but is very consistent when he does visit the racecourse. Although he has been absent for ages, I can"t believe that Nicky Henderson would run a horse in this who wasn"t 100% fit and 33-1 is way too big
3.20 World Hurdle. May well sit this one out, but again I"m tempted by something at a big price. As a former Cheltenham Gold Cup Winner War Of Attrition is one of the few in the field with the raw ability to trouble Big Buck"s. As well as his most prestigious win, he was once a very close second to Brave Inca in a Supreme Novices Hurdle. His last 2 runs have resulted in grade 2 hurdle victories and may be worth a speculative flutter at 33-1.
4.00 Byrne Group Plate. Unless something leaps off the page at me when I read the Racing Post tommorow, I could have another speculative punt here, this time at 40-1 on Mr Mcgoldrick who has the distinction of finishing in the money at huge prices at 2 previous festivals
4.40 Kim Muir Challenge Cup. Call me lazy, but frankly I can"t be bothered to pull apart the form for a 24 runner handicap chase for amateur riders. Therefore, I"ll side with Nostringsattached who is consistent and in J T McNamara has one of the better jockeys in this
--- End quote ---
11/1 place on betfair mr mcgoldrick
noble1:
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on March 17, 2010, 21:50:04 PM ---
errrr....after 2 days my ROI is still -100%
have gone for a load of small EW chances tomorrow and one bigger punt in the 2.40
selections
4.00 great endeavour (EW)
--- End quote ---
:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)
monkeyman:
I"m off to Fakenham tomorrow, so I ain"t going to bother analysing every race at Cheltenham in too much depth. My thoughts are as follows:
1.30 Triumph Hurdle. Pittoni was subject to an injury scare recently, so I"ll take it on trust that he is fit. I think he"s the strongest of the Irish contingent and his defeat last time can be ignored as it was against older horses on heavy going
2.05 County Hurdle. Inventor was a classy flat horse, has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles (the defeat was a 4th behind Supreme Novices winner Menorah) and is therefore open to considerable improvement. 28-1 at the moment looks very generous
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. Tell Massini is undefeated, the form is rock-solid and he won"t get beaten here.
3.20 Gold Cup. Kauto Star
4.00 Foxhunters Chase. Sericina will take this before Paul Nicholls takes over her training.
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. FFS, how is anyone supposed to pick the winner of this? can"t be bothered.
5.15 Grand Annual Chase. You"re The Top.
Swinebag:
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on March 17, 2010, 21:50:04 PM ---
errrr....after 2 days my ROI is still -100%
have gone for a load of small EW chances tomorrow and one bigger punt in the 2.40
selections
1.30 tanks for that (EW)
2.05ainmar + dont push it (EW)
2.40 poquelain - (sounds liker poker!!)
3.20
4.00 great endeavour (EW)
4.40 burren legend (EW) - lost my marbles here!!
--- End quote ---
woop woop
finally a winner (and at 25-1 on BSQ as well) giving me a winning day and sending my ROI flying up to -62%
friday"s boks to follow
Swinebag:
last chance
1.30 soldatino
2.05 tito bustillo
2.40 tell massini
3.20 Imperial commander
4.00
4.40
5.15 sunnyhillboy EW
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