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Cash Hand - How to play the strong draw on the turn?

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AMRN:
hmmmm interesting that so many advocate flat calling the turn bet, with a view to folding the river if missed. I think this would be an awful play - it"s a spewy call with no implied odds!!  To make our flush, the board would need to show 4 diamonds - if he has set or 2 pair, it"s an easy river fold for him - ie we don"t get paid off for hitting our draw.

So, IMO, flat calling the turn is bad, folding is too nitty - so it has to be a raise, right?

noble1:
something brian townsend wrote once that i mostly agree with ;D

--- Quote ---Poker in all forms is a simple math game. You have a hand and your opponents have a range of hands. You then make a decision based on their range versus your holding as to whether to call, fold, or raise. You determine this by looking at the equity, or how often you win the hand, against the size of the pot to determine your best action. In no-limit hold"em, when facing a pot-size bet on the turn, generally if you have greater than 50 percent equity in the pot, you should raise. If your equity is between 33 percent and 49 percent, and no fold equity exists, you should call. If your equity is less than 33 percent and no implied odds exist, you should fold. This is a simplistic model, but a good place to start when learning beginning range calculations.
--- End quote ---


so going by this - fold flop [u dont ;D] turn call ;D  - although u have a very slight positive equity against sets and 2 pairs,i cannot see how we could conjure up some FE if u rr AMRN as being the optimal line of play..

LongshanksED:
Villian appears to to never be folding on the turn. Maybe if a 4th diamond hits or a Q hits the river, he may fold to your bet.

Your getting odds to carry on and if you don"t hit you"ve only lost the minimum and if you hit then your winning the pot at least which before your turn call is $20 approx

costing you 8 to win 20 at the moment. You have 4 queens and 8 diamonds (not counting q twice) = 12 outs is approx 25% to hit which is 3/1 so a call is feasible as your getting around 2.5/1 This is all in my head of course. I"m not using stove or odds calculators!

Of course you can"t discount AA or KK no
matter how unlikely

shozboy1:
I couldn"t see the suits on your original post. I thought you had A10s. With A10o, i guess the implied odds are no longer huge as I"d suggested. But at this level players will often pay you off with sets/2pair even if your flush hits on a 4 suited board.

Noble, the link to this article would be good if you"ve got it.

As prev, I dont see the value in raising. He"s not going anywhere, and you have all your money in on a draw with 1 card to come.

LongshanksED:
Unlikely but villian could have turned the flush a well!

Unlikely following betting pattern but you never know

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