Poker Forum > Strategy

JJ utg facing 3 bet

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MintTrav:
According to my calculations, you were 0.1% to win with Quads (or a Poker as we used to called it in Ireland).
However, as you also had a backdoor flush-draw, that gave you a further 3.6% (omitting the 6s), so he was only 96.3% favourite. On that basis, your hand now seems good enough to get the chips in. He should have folded.

noble1:
snapper u gotta remember that stove calculates with 5cards to come so it calcs showdown equity if board is left blank and so on if u enter 3cards in the board panel then it will estimate equity with 2cards to come..The difficult part to calc your ev to see a flop is u have to work out how often an Ace , King or Queen come on the flop for villains AK AQ holdings and then calculating for his bigger pairs QQ+ and a low cooler flop and then factor in your 2 outs to hit to improve turn and river[approx 8%] as long as villain does not improve...The problem is compounded when u factor in at least one opponent happens to hold one of those overcards to your jacks...

u get {50 \choose 3} = 19,600 possible flops so i"ll leave others to work it out :)

just read through it and i hope u get what i"m trying to explain..

edit - the figures u have from stove estimate the equity for a 5card showdown..

TheSnapper:

--- Quote from: noble1 on March 16, 2010, 16:50:47 PM ---
snapper u gotta remember that stove calculates with 5cards to come so it calcs showdown equity if board is left blank and so on if u enter 3cards in the board panel then it will estimate equity with 2cards to come..The difficult part to calc your ev to see a flop is u have to work out how often an Ace , King or Queen come on the flop for villains AK AQ holdings and then calculating for his bigger pairs QQ+ and a low cooler flop and then factor in your 2 outs to hit to improve turn and river[approx 8%] as long as villain does not improve...The problem is compounded when u factor in at least one opponent happens to hold one of those overcards to your jacks...

u get {50 \choose 3} = 19,600 possible flops so i"ll leave others to work it out :)

just read through it and i hope u get what i"m trying to explain..

edit - the figures u have from stove estimate the equity for a 5card showdown..

--- End quote ---


I do understand and your point is sound it really is a snap fold pre, The real decision is preflop and having made the mistake of calling there, I was never ever folding the flop but suspected a small gain in fold equity by shoving the flop rather than preflop and thats why I"ve stoved as 5 cards to come.

Thanks a lot guys it is pretty low content to be honest though.

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