Poker Forum > Strategy
theory - how would you play it?
shozboy1:
I think I"d be betting this flop most of the time 50-60% pot.
The turn is a check/call check/check for me.
If the turn goes check/check I may "turn my hand into a bluff" and bet out the river. He can"t call/raise unless he has the goods, or a good read on us, or is a sophisticated opponent capable of a bluff river raise.
If the turn goes check/call my action would be determined on reads/prev history etc. I"d probably check/call check/check river depending on my/his stack size/reads/prev hands etc etc.
The way its played I can"t see how the turn or river could"ve helped him.
AMRN:
not too fussed about the lead on both flop and turn, although would tend to check at least one of the streets to keep the pot under control.
A lead on the river is only usually getting called by better hands, and our two pair can"t stand up to any raise on the end, but really wants to get to showdown.... so check/call the river, assuming he doesn"t do some massive overbet looking for value.
Paulie_D:
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 22, 2010, 21:33:46 PM ---
A lead on the river is only usually getting called by better hands
--- End quote ---
I agree with this BUT my earlier point was, absent a Jack...he can only call and he"d have to be pretty confident that WE don"t have a Jack to raise. We minimise a potential loss by leading IMO and maximise our fold equity.
Yes, our hand is now essentially a bluff but we"ve shown strength all the way and our villain has played it pretty passive. Is he letting us build the pot for him....possibly, but I still think with the board texture on the turn he"d have raised for value rather than waiting for a potentially disastrous river.
AMRN:
--- Quote from: Paulie_D on July 22, 2010, 21:46:03 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 22, 2010, 21:33:46 PM ---
A lead on the river is only usually getting called by better hands
--- End quote ---
I agree with this BUT my earlier point was, absent a Jack...he can only call and he"d have to be pretty confident that WE don"t have a Jack to raise. We minimise a potential loss by leading IMO and maximise our fold equity.
Yes, our hand is now essentially a bluff but we"ve shown strength all the way and our villain has played it pretty passive. Is he letting us build the pot for him....possibly, but I still think with the board texture on the turn he"d have raised for value rather than waiting for a potentially disastrous river.
--- End quote ---
By leading, we are giving him the chance to bluff raise.... in his position, given that we led every street on this board, he can be fairly safe in his assumption that we are unlikely to show up with a J..... so he knows that a position raise is going to get through most of the time. However, by checking, unless he overbets, we can get our marginal hand to showdown cheaply.
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: Paulie_D on July 22, 2010, 20:21:42 PM ---
I"m NEVER checking this flop...if i get raised, so be it, I"ll re-evaluate then.
Raising pre, hitting and then checking is way to weak for me.
--- End quote ---
Why are you betting, value, bluff, protection?
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