Poker Forum > Member Blogs
Keeping Warm in Winter
noble1:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on September 02, 2011, 11:14:44 AM ---
--- Quote from: noble1 on September 01, 2011, 05:15:38 AM ---
hmmm not the best move imho guys, are u looking at this in the right way? cash is about extracting value, is just shoving all in going to be the best EV move?
of course it can be player specific, there is always that, but, really [dramatic pause] shove??
--- End quote ---
Sorry for taking so long to actually put a response to this together but I wanted to make sure I did a good one. (because Noble has an excellent point here)
Is shoving to go be the most +EV move? I think it is.
He has called a standard raise preflop so I have no idea what he could have at that point. Flop comes down fairly dry (an unlikely straight draw). The King is a good card for me as it hits some of his range.
I "c-bet" for around 3/4 pot and he calls. With so few draws out there, he could have a King or a pair like nines or tens. Yes he could also have a set and if he does it"s nh at this point.
The turn changes nothing but puts a flush draw out there but unless he has something like KQs then it doesn"t help him. We have a pot that is around $5 and he bets $1.50 into it leaving him with about $10 behind. I really do think he has something at this point and calling just seems terrible (there is just not enough air in his range that he is going to barrel on the river). I also think it"s likely he has the king. So I am going to raise. The most sensible raise size is going to be a shove. It would be really unusual for him to call a raise to say $5 but not call an allin. Also even if he does then the river might make the board more scary and even if we are still ahead we may miss value.
I would therefore suggest than in this spot shoving for value is the right play. The only reason to not to raise is if we think he has nothing and will bet the river, I think we lose value with this play.
--- End quote ---
Rodders look out any material on the subject of the way ahead way behind concept, in position and out of position..
I really think judging by various hh"s i"ve seen you post over time that this will help your game a lot. The biggest leak imho at these stakes is that players over play there over pairs and forgive me if i am wrong but [totally honest sincere etc opinion] it won"t surprise me at all that if you analysed all your hh"s that you maybe a tad leaky with them based on your current thought process. [not just losing to a set etc but losing value in spots when way ahead plus add in minimising your losses, it all adds up to those extra bb"s you can put on your win rate]
Honestly i"m not a big fan of in a vacuum with no reads analysis but on the above hh villains action does not suggest strength imo.. With no reads in general at these stakes villains will cc cc top pair or ch/r turn maybe the flop etc so to shove just lets him play [make his decision easier] his range better.. He can fold all his pp"s [only has 2 outs] his weak FD"s can now find a fold etc etc.. Until i had reads of sorts or a general feel on villains style then i"d treat his weak donk bet as a check and base/treat my action on the turn as that. A smaller bet say $4 may get one more call out of a weak king, a weak FD or 9T 99 TT JJ etc.. Flatting his weak turn donk may get extra on the river from a king etc etc... All in all it would be far easier to assess with some idea/read on villains style etc, so full circle back around to concepts etc, understanding these better than others at your stake level will help you categorise opponent ability and get better general reads/feel with every showdown that you see..
A general quick thought on turn donk bets, it can be used to get value from opponents that you think checks behind a lot. Against opponents that barrel turns frequently, the turn donk bet can hinder there turn bluffs. [all dependent on board texture etc there level of thought] A turn donk can induce some types to over play, bluff or go to far with tptk or over pairs :) etc when you do it for value..
The cc flop lead turn is just a variation/different line on rather than check raising air on a dry flop for instance, we just mix it up, cc lead turn looks more like you have something, it makes it harder for the opponent to put as much air in your range. Its a line you can use for all sorts of purposes, be it bluffing, value or when you pick up draws..
I am definitely not suggesting this opponent grasps the uses of turn donks by the way :)
Sorry in advance if you think you are ok in the over pair department, another stat you could look at [if you have a tracker] is your position stats, look at all hands played ip and oop... [not just losers but winners as well, could"ve you got more value etc, lost less on the losers]
ASK, QUESTION, QUERY + BE CREATIVE. KNOW WHERE THE FOLD BUTTON IS ;) work on those reads fella :)
Break your game down, if you can afford it then hire a good well regarded coach at the stakes you play. This may help a lot getting the building blocks/thought process/leaks you maybe over looking fine tuned.. Sometimes things just get foggy or we get stuck in a rut and all we need is a nudge in the right direction..
Also ask other friends/poker colleagues who know your game better far more than i do for there no fuss frank opinions on possible weak/leaky areas in your poker style/game etc...
Wales won OMG :o England may only score 3 or 4 Tuesday lol ;)
regards
noble
samuel_9:
make sure you sit in the right seat when your playing
AAroddersAA:
Noble, good post again fella. Agree with most of what you say and am well aware of some of the leaks that have come into my game recently (and some that have always been there). As usual your points are well made however in this spot I still like the shove. It"s not as I really think I get called by worse quite a bit.
Obviously I know about the way ahead way behind concept although it entirely possible I don"t apply it well enough. In general what you are saying makes sense.
As for England Vs Wales, I have no idea what the score will be however I would be surprised if it turns out to be much of a contest unfortunately. Really hope I am wrong on that but will not be holding my breath.
AAroddersAA:
Well, played around 800 hands today and am somehow down just over 1.5 Buyin"s.
I don"t think I have made a major mistake (which is unusual) and my EV graph shows that I am running more than 4 buyins below EV. This is how I have run this week. The 4 biggest pots I have lost I have got in with at least 60% equity including a 400BB pot where my opponent hit a gutshot on the river.
Looking back at the hands I have played this week and how I have done, I can"t see that I am doing anything wrong, but I have lost every day.
Not too sure how I have managed to be only 1.5BI down today to be honest, hopefully I will start running better soon.
AAroddersAA:
So this is what a winning session feels like *lol*
Made a couple of buyins back this morning. Still think I am playing really good PLO at the moment but I seem to be missing a lot of big draws and opponents are hitting them against me, it happens of course. I am arranging a Teamviewer session with one of the really good PLO players over at Blonde and spoke to another one of them last night and he seemed to think this was pretty standard for this game which is good.
Will just keep going more hands to be played this afternoon.
EDIT: Just out of interest what are people opinion on how I play this hand?
Seat 1: freddy spitz ($19.19 in chips)
Seat 2: DaNuts90 ($12.43 in chips)
Seat 3: AAroddersAA ($9.83 in chips)
Seat 4: birbidon ($10.30 in chips)
Seat 5: rhaelor ($10.97 in chips)
Seat 6: Holdem8282 ($7.97 in chips)
DaNuts90: posts small blind $0.05
AAroddersAA: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AAroddersAA [Ad Ac Qd 5h]
birbidon: folds
rhaelor: raises $0.25 to $0.35
Holdem8282: folds
freddy spitz: folds
DaNuts90: folds
AAroddersAA: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [Ah 3d 9c]
AAroddersAA: checks
rhaelor: checks
*** TURN *** [Ah 3d 9c] [Kc]
AAroddersAA: bets $0.65
rhaelor: folds
Uncalled bet ($0.65) returned to AAroddersAA
AAroddersAA collected $0.72 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.75 | Rake $0.03
Board [Ah 3d 9c Kc]
Seat 1: freddy spitz (button) folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 2: DaNuts90 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: AAroddersAA (big blind) collected ($0.72)
Seat 4: birbidon folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 5: rhaelor folded on the Turn
Seat 6: Holdem8282 folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
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