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Keeping Warm in Winter
AAroddersAA:
Can"t do a proper update today due to forum being offline later so will give you this to ponder.
A very interesting spot Vs a reg in an early morning session, a tough spot. Against many players who 3-bet here the hand is an easy fold. Pretty sure my 4-bet gets enough folds to be profitable though against this specific player obviously never folding after making the 4-bet though if he has AK so be it.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18169124_2C05354F8D
Nicked about $20 from the game over 200 hands this morning
AAroddersAA:
Maintaining my record of a post every day so far. I am so good at this *lol*. Smart money says I manage to get all the way at least as far as the 20th as working next weekend however I arrive in Stratford on 20th so anything could happen from there.
I was in work yesterday and somebody asked me if it was possible to get the big screens changed to show the darts. I did not even know the UK Open was on but today is the last day. I don"t think it is possible to bet against MVG but Taylor looks in great form at the moment. MVG is on another planet though and right now would almost certainly have beaten Taylor in his prime. My only doubt is that last season MVG won everything accept the Premier League and the Worlds. I think this year he needs to deliver in the big tournaments although I am sure he will. I was again not able to go to Newport to watch the game yesterday but Scott Boden delivered yet again for County as they beat a good Wycombe side, should be pretty much safe now. If we can maintain our current squad through the summer and add a few I honestly think we could push for the play offs next season.
Two weeks today I will be travelling by train to the WCOAP. I leave Swansea at 8:30am and arrive in London at 12:36, long journey due to the engineering works.
Travelling in 2016 is very different to how it was a few years ago and the things you take away have changed a lot. I remember going to Scotland to watch a rugby international in I think 1999. We went by coach to London and then flew to Edinburgh, I took a book with me to pass the time on the journey and we took some cards too. We did have mobile phones at that point (not all of us but some of us) however all we could do was phone and text so had to make plans for meeting up and where we were going to be ect. These day I will be travelling to WCOAP with an iPhone that has a data connection that runs faster than anything that was available at home in 1999. We certainly did not have internet connections on the move. I will take my iPad and Laptop, the ipad is for use on the journey and at the casino to keep in touch with the rest of the world and find out what is going on and where everybody is. The laptop is for playing online poker/betting. I will also take a Chromecast to connect to the TV so I can watch things like Netflix. I also have full access to Sky Sports and various TV shows on my Laptop if needed. Facebook will make it easy to stay in touch with the rest of the world so everybody will know how to event is going. This has all changed completely in under 20 years, I do wonder what will happen in the next 20 years.
Poker Update - Here are some hands I have played today
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182115_AD6F64FAD9
This is a play that I can"t decide is it is profitable or not, raising the donk bet. I am currently having a lot of success with it but has previously stopped using it entirely due to it working so rarely. A close one.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182183_B5FDD6A214
Always nice to be on the right side of a cooler but he really causes this problem himself by calling the 3-bet pre. I like how I play this hand and never go broke in his seat.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182199_732C56A6D9
This is quite a straightforward fold unless you have a really good reason to call. However I have seen a lot of people want to get it in here for all sorts of reasons, his line is so strong though that one pair is just not good here. I really like the fold. There are some arguements that can be made for calling (or shoving) I don"t think they are good ones though.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182158_2AB61923EC
Looking at this one I again like my play but wonder if I should be more on the river, pretty sure I should, I had him on the Jack tbh but if he is calling $3 he is probably calling $5 as well, over-betting might have been the best way to go on the river here.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182209_2E5BEAA2DF
Again I like how I play this one. Once the set hits I need to follow the best line to get the money all in. I think the call is OK against his entire range on the flop and the shove on the turn is good as it forces draws to call me and there are a lot of scare cards on the river which results in me not getting paid.
Profit this morning was about $45 over 300 hands.
My Matched Accumulators are looking good. I had a losing leg on my Bet Victor one yesterday (Chelsea) so the EV on that one is going to be +£5 about. Today the first game I want to win is Feyenoord (also need Barcelona to win on my William Hill) at 3:45 today after that I need a Napoli win (although their odds drifting has reduced profit a little). It will be a good profit either way. Will see how much I am up on Accumulators and general betting later today. Has certainly been a good week though.
Will probably play a few more hands later and might jump in a few tournaments this evening whilst watching the darts.
Song for the day is one with a Welsh theme and is aimed at the team event at the WCOAP, although I won"t be playing for Wales I will definitely be supporting them, if they don"t win hopefully one of the other home nations do. The England team will take some beating imo.
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRtnWVvDX6k[/youtube]
AAroddersAA:
Well I have single figures working days until WCOAP now. Considering taking a break for a week from playing next week to go in fresh which I think may be a good idea. In work today we were discussing who will win the Premier League this season and with 9 games to go I have almost no idea. I think I would pick Tottenham if forced but would love to see Leicester win it, would it be the biggest upset of our life times? I suspect it would given they were 5000/1 at the start of the season. I wonder what they were to make Champions League as that may well be up there as well.
Played a very boring session of poker today, was down by £14. This is the only interesting hand I play it poorly as the river bet is awful (fine up till that point). I rep nothing and he always has something and is almost always going to call based on how the hand has gone.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18204678_AEC26D28AF
So WCOAP prediction time. This is where I try to pick the final table, nine names, how many will I get right? Anybody fancy posting their shot at it? Today"s prediction is quite a simple one and likely to be the most tipped person of all the reg"s to run deep and possibly final. He is without a doubt one of the best players of all the apat regulars and in my opinion the very best by a reasonable distance. The only player I definitely feel out-classed by when he is at my table (there are plenty is is a good battle with but only one I don"t feel I have a realistic chance against long term). This guy can read the game better than anybody, I once spent a whole day playing on his table and we played several hands together, every time I didn"t have it he called (or raised) every time I did have it he folded. I still made the final table of that event but he went on to win and and then won the next one as well. He is a 4 time final tabler and a two time APAT Champion. My first prediction for the final table of the main event in Stratford is the Captain of Team Wales - Warren Jones.
Away from poker I completed two of my matched accumulators making £18 from my William Hill one and £5 from my Ladbrokes one. I messed up the Paddy Power and Bet Victor ones by including a game from next week (Barcelona Vs Arsenal) but that is OK it will just delay it a bit, I can still setup a new William Hill and they allow larger bets anyway on the insurance. Bet365 are doing a £50 Free Bet offer on Wednesday so expecting to make about £30 off that as well. Will also convert some other free bets I have this week. Love matched betting. Not because it makes much money (it does not really) but the fact you have to pick your games and figure out which games are not likely to drift too much on the exchanges I find it very enjoyable.
Here is today"s song. Just because I like it at the moment, no other reason
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISvTjW0NrJY[/youtube]
s4ooter:
Main is a minefield so VBOL with predictions on that!
Would rather see some 8game predictions, that"s the true test! It"s the APAT version of the Chip Reese comp!!
I think that is the bracelet the hardcore wanna win!!
AMRN:
--- Quote from: s4ooter on March 08, 2016, 12:44:50 PM ---
Main is a minefield so VBOL with predictions on that!
Would rather see some 8game predictions, that"s the true test! It"s the APAT version of the Chip Reese comp!!
I think that is the bracelet the hardcore wanna win!!
--- End quote ---
Definitely agree, and I love the fact that it is priced at the same level as the Main, and ahead of some other sides. I had a choice of which weekend to play, and it was tough to avoid the Main and PLO events, but couldn"t miss the chance for a Mixed Game event like this.
@Rodders - loving reading your daily updates.... keep it going mate.
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