Poker Forum > Member Blogs
Keeping Warm in Winter
pables:
:o :o :oRodders OMG what are you doing!!!
I cannot believe you are giving this information out freely
Give them your link :o :o
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: pables on April 03, 2016, 10:47:58 AM ---
:o :o :oRodders OMG what are you doing!!!
I cannot believe you are giving this information out freely
Give them your link :o :o
--- End quote ---
But this is nothing I had not figured out for myself anyway. The things I had not seen (or even thought about until you told me) are what we discussed in Stratford and I won"t be mentioning here, the spreadsheets are also well worth having as they allow access to offers you could not otherwise do. Basic matched betting however (signup offers and basic football reload offers is not actually worth paying for).
They are all available for free here also:-
https://www.facebook.com/groups/984422048283444/
AAroddersAA:
Welcome to Autumn.
As the WCOAP finished months ago I was intending to write up some things that we interesting that happened throughout the year. Some of the big things for this year included Yarm Invasion and APAT Belgium. Sadly I seem to have missed them all.
But what a great year it has been, we had the WCOAP at the amazing London Stratford casino. Will be honest and say that I will miss it next year (Stratford, not the event) however I understand why we can"t go back. Yarm Invasion 2016 was a massive success with OFC in the pub being one of the main activities. I was lucky enough to be in Belgium for an amazing team event run by the Belgian crew. Even though I did not play well (let the team down a bit to be honest) it was a great event with the excellent company of Simon Brooke, JP Round, Claire Duffy, Ross Fullarton and Tod Wood. The beer over there is confirmed as a bit strong. Me booking the wrong hotel dates at Cardiff was pretty too funny in the end. To be fair the best part was everybody was really helpful with Several offers of room shares and to stay at various peoples houses, wasn"t needed in the end but says enough about our APAT people again. Had a great day in Cardiff Bay on the Saturday. A fine way to end the summer. Villamoura is missing from the calendar this year though which is sad I suppose we must have messed that up there are not really many better places I know.
So now the leaves are turning Golden and the farmers are gathering their crops. Before too much longer we will start to see Christmas decorations (yes I KNOW it is still September but trust me it will happen). Hopefully we will get past Halloween and bonfire night before that though. The problem with this time of year is it tends to get a bit cold. It"s a bit of a shame there is nowhere nice and warm we can go but where could that be? - maybe Manchester has possibilities ???
Poker has been a bit poor of late and I have become aware I really need to put some time to work on my game as I have been not playing well enough at all. I plan to put this right though and will start posting a little bit about it here. Probably won"t be able to play any more APAT's until next year now as am sadly missing Ireland. No Ireland, no Villamoura - really don"t know what is happening this year.
Away from poker been doing pretty well on the old "matched betting". There are some excellent opportunities on the Ryder Cup this week and using an advantage play on Accumulators with insurance is an excellent way of doing things. We also have 888 goals mean more promo and Ladbrokes in play offers. Coral are also doing some excellent stuff. Gonna do some recommendations on this.
Today"s recommendation is an offer on Skybet where you place a bet on a player to be top points scorer and get a £5 free bet every time your player wins a game.
Here is the Market on Skybet
https://www.skybet.com/golf/ryder-cup-2016/event/19755945
Here is the Market on Betfair
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/golf/market/1.127221983
(I assume I can post these links if not let me know and I will remove)
So you just put a £10 Bet on Rory McIlroy to be the top overall points scorer at 7/1 (8.0) on Skybet and lay £8.04 at 10.0 on Betfair. So whatever the result we will lose £2.36 on that bet. The profit comes from the fact we get a £5 free bet every time McIlroy wins a game. As long as he wins one we will be up. We gain more profit every time he wins extra games. We will use matched betting to turn our £5 free bets into about £3.80 at least. Obviously you need to cash in your Betfair account to cover the lay which is about £75. Long term this is going to be massively profitable.
Anyway I will go and try and find something exciting that is happening pretty soon that I can write about the build up too and maybe even the event itself, Hmmm what could it be?
AAroddersAA:
OK Day two of the new updates. It"s Friday night but I am working tomorrow so gonna watch Only Fools and Horses on Netflix. I think my favourite episode is the one where they go on the Jolly Boys outing and get stuck in Margate. Gonna watch that one. One of my favourite programmes but think it was ruined by making the last three episodes as I think the original ending was perfect. What the the favourite shows of other apaters?
In other news Tyson Fury (still a great name) has been stripped on the World Heavyweight title after testing positive for cocaine. Sadly I am not surprised, I don"t expect him to fight again and expect to see Anthony Joshua win the belts pretty soon. Think he would have lost to Klitchco but that must have cost him a fair bit of money.
So anyway played a bit of poker after getting back from work today:-
Have a look at this hand. I don"t really like my play too much (it"s OK) but hate his a lot
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20903842_BA62AE0595
So my button raise is obviously fine and the c-bet on the flop is also OK. I don"t really like his call with that hand (3-bet would be better or just fold). My C-bet is OK, don"t dislike his call too much as I can double barrell a fair bit here although on that turn I have to give up a lot as well. I also pick up a draw so I want a cheap showdown now and quite like the check. Don"t really like his bet on the river as it is a bad spot to bluff I think (he is bluffing but not sure he knows that) I am not a massive fan of my call either given that he should not be bluffing there but I got lucky and he was (I think). The bet is pretty small so the call might just about be OK.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20903747_D8B4D659BA
Not entirely sure about this one, it could be OK but so many made hands and draws on that flop maybe I should just give it up
Played 102 hands winning $1.77 so basically another break even session (I am good at those currently). Need to keep working on it to get my game back in good shape before November - November is a good month to have your game in shape see.
My Matched betting tip for today is on Ladbrokes place an in play £20 Bet on mobile on the Everton game today (min odds of 1.5) to get a free £10 in play bet on the Liverpool game tomorrow. Back and lay Everton in play for a loss of £2 or less and job done. This should make us about £5 whatever the results. Come back later as I might well put an accumulator up to use will edit the post:-
Acca suggestion for this week (you don"t need to lay these if you don"t want too it will be +EV as long as you can turn the £25 free bet you get for one game letting you down into £20 real money)
12pm 1st October - Swansea Vs Liverpool - Liverpool (Liverpool)
3pm 1st October - Bayern Munich Vs Cologne (Bayern)
12pm 2nd October - Man Utd Vs Stoke (Man Utd)
3pm 2nd October - Real Madrid Vs Eibar (Real Madrid)
7:45pm 2nd October - Celta Vigo Vs Barcelona (Barcelona)
Odds are around 7/2 - This is only +EV when used in conjunction with an Acca insurance offer with matched betting used to turn the free £25 you get for one leg letting you down into £20 real money. As a standard bet it is a long term loser
Oh one more thing about that cold spell in poker...........
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVO8sUrs-Pw
AAroddersAA:
Another day so another post (missed yesterday). I am planning to play a bit of the new APAT League that is coming soon but October is looking like a quiet month for me although a good mate on mine is getting married on The 15th October so that is going to be a good weekend no doubt. We have the reception in an "interesting" area of Newport but it will be cheap beer so that"s good, I think there will be food but not worrying about that too much. The thing I am pretty gutted about is not being able to make the APAT Dublin which is one of my favourites and last year having it as part of the IPO was brilliant. I will be following online instead.
I see that the government are getting around to triggering article 50. I wonder if that will have any effect on us realistically I certainly put the price up of something I had to buy this week. I will be surprised if it actually has too much effect on the life of the average person though. I would also like to say well done to Tesco who have decided to get rid of their 24 hour opening in Swansea and quite a few other parts of Wales. I went into town this morning and everything was open. I am very much of the opinion that at the moment the whole country is too focused on consumers and this is causing unrealistic expectations on people who work in that industry. I would actually like to see supermarkets close on Sunday (or whatever day we choose as the weekly day off) as well as a number of other services that are currently open. I don"t believe that is provides much benefit to society as a whole and might well be of detriment due to the high number of people who are currently working almost every weekend. How you make that work with things that have to run 24/7 I am not sure though, obviously 999 needs to be staffed at all times and hospitals and A&E departments need to keep running. The first thing that comes to mind is better rewards for people in those areas of work but that might be easier said than done maybe.
Good day of sport today with the football and the darts. Very happy with the result of the Grand Prix this morning, not a big fan of Rosberg but he is slightly preferable to Hamilton. Hopefully next season Red Bull will be able to mount a proper challenge.
Here is a bit of a poker update today. Played 300 hands or so and won around $30 which is OK. Have spent some time doing some work on Pokertracker and starting to find some leaks and slowly plug them. Here are some hands from today.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20922235_D0EF9F6962
The first hand is pretty straight forward and I only really post it to show the way it compares to another one later. Min raise could mean anything and I think 3-betting Jacks here is OK, when he 4-bets though my Jacks are not good enough to continue, pretty easy fold.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20922233_2EACAE77AE
Not entirely sure how much I like how I play ths hand. Not too much maybe. I don"t mind my 3-bet in position although it might not be the best hand to do it with. The cold call from the SB is a bit weird and teh flat call from the raiser means the flop is pretty good for me in that it is unlikely to have hit either of them. I think it is a good spot to c-bet a 3-bet pot even 3 way. I get a caller and the turn completes the flush. I am not sure if the turn should be another bet or not. I go for it and get it through. Probably pretty close but not sure how well this hand is actually played by me.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20922172_CC4D0219A3
OK this hand is a bit easier really. We have JJ in position and 3-bet the raiser who shoves. I think this makes AA and KK a lot less common in his range as people don"t shove these hands in this spot. AK is certainly possible as are some lower pairs. I doubt it is AQ and the only hand that MIGHT do this which I don"t like is QQ. This is a strange spot where I can call the shove but folded to the smaller bet in a similar situation in hand one. Pretty happy with this as I think JJ plays better against a shoving range than against a standard 4-bet range in this spot.
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20922073_4D277BF73F
I like me plan for this hand and how I play it. Preflop is standard and I hit top pair on the flop. I think that I can be up against a pair a lot and given his stack size I can check the flop. I consider this player a bit weaker based on his stack size this is normally a fairly accurate assumption. His stack size is such that I can get his stack in on the turn and the river and be called down by a weaker hand than would call the flop and turn as my hand looks weaker. I think his call on the turn is OK but don"t like his call on the river much, but I can see how that mistake gets made, personally I think I get away from the hand on the river in his seat but do like how I played it in mine.
Finally bit of a matched betting update. We are doing pretty well with our Rory McIlroy bet as we have already netted £10 worth of free bets so should be nicely in profit from that one. Our accumulator bet had one leg lose yesterday, annoyingly it was one of our banker legs (Bayern) so that does not look so good now. Today I am going to recommend betting on Man City on Coral where you get double winnings of Man City Win both half"s. It is an easy one to do, you just place a bet on Man City on Coral:-
Bet £50 on Man City on Coral at odds of 2.4
Lay £48.78 on Smarkets at odds of 2.48 - your liability for this bet is £72.19
As a result of this you will lose £2.19 whatever the result. If Man City win both half though you will pick up bonus winnings of £70 so a really good offer to do if you know about matched betting. If you don"t want to risk any money you can lay Man City to win both half on Betfair for £2.50 on Betfair at odds of 10.5. If Man City fail to win both halfs you will win £2.37 which will wipe out the £2.19 Qualifying loss. If Man City DO win both halfs you will lose £26.25 on Betfair so your total profit after your £70 bonus win would be around £43 without any risk.
These are the links to the markets you need to do it
http://sports.coral.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/tottenham-v-man-city-4504984.html (Back Man City)
https://smarkets.com/sport/football/premier-league/2016/10/02/tottenham-vs-man-city (Lay Off Man City)
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.127023581 (Lay Man City to win both halfs - Yes)
We do need a Man Utd, Man City and Barcelona win today for our Acca to give us our money back.
Anyway here is a video for today as we look forward to the Irish Amateur Championship at the end of next month. I wonder who will win ????
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ufcQe5D27s
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