Poker Forum > Strategy

Call or Fold with a draw?

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AMRN:
I was playing a tournament last night that I regretted buying in to... was on a promise, but the promise only arrived after I bought in - so had played fast and loose early on, and gambled ridiculously, and now found myself with a decent stack.  This was a $5 (2R1A) with 4500 runners, and I was 100th/1400 - 675 paid, although was only really interested in the money for the last 10. Average stack was around 25k, and I had 44k.

That said, having built a stack, I was now taking a bit more seriously, and with the cricket having started on TV, was happy to to take the late night and play properly..... then this hand happened.

Hand in question...

harbour 2000 was playing top 5% only - VP/PFR = 6/4 over 150 hands. Only hand he has open raised with so far was KK.
portbou = 22/14. Had him tagged as straight forward - folds when he misses flop, but bets fast when he hits.

When hardbour2000 opens for 3x here, I can only put him on TT+/AK. When portbou flats, I see a value opportunity and implied odds for suited connectors, but know I can"t raise as harbour won"t be folding... so elect to call (gambling fish again)

PokerStars - $5+$0.50|400/800 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

lewieboi (UTG+1): 35,157.00
GREGVANAIRE (MP): 15,295.00
harbour2000 (MP+1): 24,624.00
PORTBOU (LP): 27,141.00
shinbunshi (CO): 8,247.00
Harrierz (BTN): 44,467.00
sc_23 (SB): 48,212.00
larryhouse (BB): 50,365.00
cbwood1 (UTG): 22,711.00

lewieboi posts ante 100.00, GREGVANAIRE posts ante 100.00, harbour2000 posts ante 100.00, PORTBOU posts ante 100.00, shinbunshi posts ante 100.00, Harrierz posts ante 100.00, sc_23 posts ante 100.00, larryhouse posts ante 100.00, cbwood1 posts ante 100.00, sc_23 posts SB 400.00, larryhouse posts BB 800.00

Pre Flop: (2100.00) Harrierz has  5c 6c

fold, fold, fold, harbour2000 raises to 2,400.00, PORTBOU calls 2,400.00, fold, Harrierz calls 2,400.00, fold, fold

Flop: (9300.00, 3 players)   8d 7c 5d
harbour2000 bets 22,124.00 and is all-in, fold


So..... call or fold?

Waz1892:
With your reads on harbour and assuming there are correct, you know you have to hit your draw as he will always have an overpair, I would discount ak with him going all in, as too risky on a pretty connected board.

So I reckon you have 10 outs (4"s, 9"s and 2 5"s) that will win, and a possible backdoor flush. 

You hit and your well chipped up for your target of a top 10 finish, you miss and you still have over 20bb to try again.

You already said you called as a gamble, you got your desired flop...why stop now?

dwh103:
Firstly, I would say you do not nearly have the correct implied odds given the effective stacks. The pre-flop call alone is 10% of the opener"s stack. Doesn"t sound like you"d be getting free turns, or that the 3rd guy is going to spack off here either - so a pretty bad spot to gamble/speculate - and I love gambling/speculating!

As for the decision, simple pot odds. Pot is laying less than 3/2. A fair assumption that this guy has a big overpair - unless he would put it on the line with AK here - doesn"t seem likely but worth allocating a small "bluff" %.

Against TT+ your equity is around 46% - so the chance of getting a big stack to abuse the upcoming bubble and absorb any later beats is too good to turn down. Obviously including a wild AK bluff improves your equity. Comfortable call for me as played - as Waz suggests, you"ve gambled already and pretty much got what you wanted.

stoneii:
v an over pair I"d count his 3 x 6"s as outs too - making it 13 outs with backdoor flush draw.  Get it in and if yer wrong go make babies!!!

TheSnapper:
Versus his range of TT+AK assuming he jams the flop with 100%, you have 57% equity and are a decent favourite to win the hand.

Discounting half of the AK combos still leaves us with 53% and since you have to win several of these flips to make top 10 in these big field tournies, I like a variance embracing call.

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