Poker Forum > Strategy
FT 66k KO
noble1:
--- Quote ---flop - hit my draw, but nothign else to get excited about, have seen villain fold if not hit anything in past, so thought 700 should do the trick (is this bet sizing ok?)
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against this type where we get passive money[chips] pots then with it being a limped pot i"d bet more tbh 900 to near pot given stack sizes, the positives imo are that when we are actually betting for value :o then when on the occasions we do get called, then we are playing for a bigger pot when we have it ;D
--- Quote ---turn - Hit what i thought was gin card, but didnt want to check back the turn to let a bigger diamond get there, 1000 was more of a valuey type bet, hoping that the diamonds miss the river and can then make another decent sized value bet.
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in the main against fit and fold types as played upto now i"d bet more [3/4 pot to pot"ish], if he check called a king then mostly these types imo will call again here no matter what card springs up on the turn, its hard to put him on 2pair+ in this spot so logic upto now imho says mostly his range is draws Kx with a diamond, the c/c flop means flushes so villain just hit his GIN card or Kx...
--- Quote ---river - he bets into me, which i would expect him to do with a few busted draws, or a pair/2pair/similar combos. Now i look back at it, i should have flatted, and even if i am raising i am not too sure that i haven"t made it too much
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you pegged him as a fit or fold type so i wouldn"t expect villain to bet a busted draw, afterall if he check called a draw on the flop then he hit it on the turn, there aren"t any other draws he can have really on that flop texture.. so villain is betting a king or a flush [maybe rarely trip 7"s]... sometimes these types can play 2pair on the flop in this way so a boat cannot be discounted entirely hence the just call river consensus, its the safe play, nothing wrong there.. i"m not against a river re-raise either, but like you question, the sizing is a tad large imho, the concept of thin value relies on our opponent calling a bet with the weaker hands in his range. However, sometimes it will be clear that our opponent holds ONLY weak hands or it met be like how villains range is weighted in your situation.. So ANY hand we bet for value will rely on the same principles of thin value, if our opponent is simply unlikely to pay us off with worse then we have to bet smaller and try to squeeze out as much value as we can that way, so a min raise type bet would be a better choice imo..
noble1:
just to add to above - [going with your read]
if u believe villain will bet his king on the river then there is only 3 kings left, so lets say villain limped K8s [3 combos]
if he c/c flop with a flush draw [a fit/fold type] if we put him on a diamond 7 then lets say he has limped 78 79 7T [3 combos]
3 hands u beat , 3 hands u lose to....
the pot is 5850 and u re-raise to 6000...
50% villain folds his king cos he considers it to big to call...
50% villain calls his better flush...
u win 5850 50% of the time
u lose 6000 50% of the time
if u make a min re-raise and villain makes a crying call cos its so cheap with his king
the pot is 5850 and u re-raise to 2400
50% calls u win 7050
50% calls u lose 2400
the above is based on your read that villain will bet the river with a king Fatcatstu, basically if villain bets the river 75%+ with combos [range] that beat u then just call...
Fatcatstu:
--- Quote from: noble1 on February 03, 2011, 14:52:51 PM ---
just to add to above - [going with your read]
if u believe villain will bet his king on the river then there is only 3 kings left, so lets say villain limped K8s [3 combos]
if he c/c flop with a flush draw [a fit/fold type] if we put him on a diamond 7 then lets say he has limped 78 79 7T [3 combos]
3 hands u beat , 3 hands u lose to....
the pot is 5850 and u re-raise to 6000...
50% villain folds his king cos he considers it to big to call...
50% villain calls his better flush...
u win 5850 50% of the time
u lose 6000 50% of the time
if u make a min re-raise and villain makes a crying call cos its so cheap with his king
the pot is 5850 and u re-raise to 2400
50% calls u win 7050
50% calls u lose 2400
the above is based on your read that villain will bet the river with a king Fatcatstu, basically if villain bets the river 75%+ with combos [range] that beat u then just call...
--- End quote ---
Ahhh, see i like that :) Somethign i will deffo try and keep in mind in the future i think, thanks pal :)
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