Poker Forum > Strategy

Maths help please

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pokerpops:

--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on February 25, 2011, 23:24:30 PM ---

--- Quote from: GarethC on February 25, 2011, 17:43:32 PM ---

--- Quote from: Marty719 on February 25, 2011, 15:44:45 PM ---
Def a case of over-analysing.  We do not want to be folding 4s full of aces in this spot when our action closes the betting, esp when the turn goes c/c.

--- End quote ---


[ ] Answered the question.

To make a call of £50 to win £120.50 you need to be winning 29% (50/(120.50+50)*100) of the time to break even. Therefore if you think he has the 4 (or aces full or a straight flush) >71% of the time you should fold.

--- End quote ---


Pretty sure there were 2 callers on the flop making it £50 to win £143.50 which means you need to be winning even less of the time.

Can"t find a fold here, especially after the lack of turn action

--- End quote ---



4 x £6 pre (.50 from SB fold) = £24.50
3 x £23 0n flop = £69 + £24.50 = £93.50 - which is what is available to split

In a vacuum I"m a caller here every time, but... there"s some maths behind it and I was curious about how often we would have to be wrong (ie BB has the 4 or AA - discard the straight flush he just never has that)
Also - how does the maths vary if the first pot has to split three ways with the all-in player also having an A?

GarethC:
Wow, good question. The equation I posted assumes you win the full pot when you win, which obviously isn"t going to happen very often. So it"s completely useless. As well as being wrong because I calculated the pot wrongly, thanks Swinebag!

Assuming you can only ever chop or lose, the £50 bet can never be won as part of the pot, you either lose an extra £50, or profit 50% or 33.3% of the pot, depending on whether it"s chopped 2 or 3 ways. So if the pot was £93.50 before the river action you stand to profit either £46.75 or £31.17 when it"s a chop. Or, if the all-in player has you beat, you get your £50 back.

This is where I got stuck when thinking about this situation in bed last night as I was trying to get to sleep. I guess it"s just a case of risk/reward? It probably comes down to a ratio between those numbers and the chance of either player having you beat. Seems simple with two players but the third all-in guy is complicating things a bit in my head. I"ll have to think about it a bit more.

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