Poker Forum > Strategy
End game in satellite for a live event
duke3016:
--- Quote from: jbworldwide on March 01, 2011, 23:35:27 PM ---
I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.
--- End quote ---
Every hands a winner and Every hands a loser - shyte back in Kenny Rogers mode
noble1:
--- Quote from: Chipaccrual on March 01, 2011, 22:11:44 PM ---
We"re 5 handed in a satellite for a live event. (Buyin $40)
Payout is 1st & 2nd = $250 seat, 3rd = $100, 4th = $60, 5th = $40
X - 7,000
Y - 7,000
Z - 7,000
SB - 16,500
BB - 15,800
Blinds are 200/400/50
Play folds round to you in SB and you are holding ac kd
You raise it to 1050
BB goes allin for 15,800
Limited reads on BB. Has been in top two of chips since final table began, played minimal hands to showdown. (If that means anything)
What do you do ?
--- End quote ---
assuming the above chip stacks are a tad out there is approx 53000 chips left, 2 target main prizes, divide by 2, so around 26000 will pretty much lock up a seat.... it doesn"t always quite work like that lol as 1 stack can be skewed bigger blah blah..
so if u take out a 7000 stack your odds of finishing top 2 would be pretty good imho... on the flipside if u call now u will lose at best 35 to 40% of the time, question atm did u have a 60% chance of winning if u fold?... hmmmm the maths are to complex for heat of the moment, so i fold..... :)
TheSnapper:
Fold.
Against a generous range of 22+,AJs+,AJo+ your AK has 50%. I suspect based on your read that villain is somewhat competent and is likely to hold a tighter range though.
AMRN:
--- Quote from: jbworldwide on March 01, 2011, 23:35:27 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on March 01, 2011, 23:25:39 PM ---
--- Quote from: jbworldwide on March 01, 2011, 22:35:56 PM ---
it is a tough spot, you still have to work for the seat. I think I would be inclined to call here, probably be racing.
The thought here is what is he getting it in with, he is only shipping the top of his range in reality. Im inclined to put him on QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 as he ships straight.
As I said tough spot, I would see how I felt at the time.
--- End quote ---
but you have to hit to win the hand - without other reads on the guy, I would only ever call with QQ+ in this spot. Happy to shove a very wide range, but hate calling when probably need to hit to win the hand.
--- End quote ---
hmm, not sure I agree entirely, you are not folding to a seat, there is still a lot to do and at some point you will prob need to take a race. At this point I may fold, but again it is about how I felt. At this stage Leigh is already freerolling, at what point do you take the risk to go for the win? A shove doesn"t feel strong here, why shove for 40+ BB with AA or KK? but then again why not?
I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.
--- End quote ---
for me it just comes down to the difference between shoving and calling..... if we call with AK, we have to have the best hand after the river to win the hand..... when we shove, we can win by the other person folding - and that will happen a lot of time at this stage of a satellite. With the stack sizes, there is just no need to take this risk in this spot. Fold, and use our stack to abuse the others.
Waz1892:
--- Quote from: AMRN on March 02, 2011, 07:49:54 AM ---
--- Quote from: jbworldwide on March 01, 2011, 23:35:27 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on March 01, 2011, 23:25:39 PM ---
--- Quote from: jbworldwide on March 01, 2011, 22:35:56 PM ---
it is a tough spot, you still have to work for the seat. I think I would be inclined to call here, probably be racing.
The thought here is what is he getting it in with, he is only shipping the top of his range in reality. Im inclined to put him on QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 as he ships straight.
As I said tough spot, I would see how I felt at the time.
--- End quote ---
but you have to hit to win the hand - without other reads on the guy, I would only ever call with QQ+ in this spot. Happy to shove a very wide range, but hate calling when probably need to hit to win the hand.
--- End quote ---
hmm, not sure I agree entirely, you are not folding to a seat, there is still a lot to do and at some point you will prob need to take a race. At this point I may fold, but again it is about how I felt. At this stage Leigh is already freerolling, at what point do you take the risk to go for the win? A shove doesn"t feel strong here, why shove for 40+ BB with AA or KK? but then again why not?
I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.
--- End quote ---
for me it just comes down to the difference between shoving and calling..... if we call with AK, we have to have the best hand after the river to win the hand..... when we shove, we can win by the other person folding - and that will happen a lot of time at this stage of a satellite. With the stack sizes, there is just no need to take this risk in this spot. Fold, and use our stack to abuse the others.
--- End quote ---
But with the fact that shoving is better than calling, we don"t we put the BB in that same frame of mind, with also the added information he has in the we only raised and not shoved ourselves - making his range more open to perhaps the norm in this situ.
Despite alot better players arguing against, I"m still calling as I"m still not convinced
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