Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion

Flat Season 2011 - Discussion

<< < (4/6) > >>

bigredders:
You need to be brave to back ante-post but i agree with Leigh on Dream Ahead for the Guineas...the only problem is the horse NEEDS some sort of soft description in its going, i honestly don"t think it will run if not which may mean it goes to the French equivelent instead. The last race where Frankel beat him he was over the top, it was absolutely not its running.

Not really looked into anything else...also heard of a few squeaks for Charlton House in the Derby!

noble1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wQhuVFS1uk

some discussion for the flat coming up....

noble1:
I have just had a nibble at Recital for the Derby, his run in the Ballysax yesterday reminded me of Sinndar.. Green and keen at the start, Mr Moore gave Recital a schooling type of ride and wasn"t over zealous imo, to my eye he ran ok for his seasonal debut, entered in the Dante he will improve no doubts in my mind.. Now he has drifted in the Derby betting to double figures i had to have a bit of that :)
Banimpire has to be noted for the Oaks, her action screams i need firm ground so yesterdays improvement was no surprise, but beating the colts at this time of season is no mean feat and the 3 figure odds i nibbled at on betfair prior to the Ballysax race look good value now :), Havant and Misty For Me have a serious challenger imo...

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=LEO_2011_04_10_04_1545

noble1:
My mind is made up now for the Derby and the Oaks, i"m already on Recital for the Derby and Dancing Rain has been backed for the Oaks..
Good luck with Carlton House with those that backed it, myself i cant see what all the fuss is about.. The Dante turned out to be pretty weak imo, 3secs slower than the Middleton plus the close proximity of a handicapper in 3rd does not merit favourite status at 2/1 and shorter with some other firms imho... If Mr Stoute manages to win the Derby with CH then it will be a truly great training performance... 9 of the last 53 Dante winners have gone onto to win the Derby so the bookies going as short as they have is just bizarre, an average Dante winner over the years would be around 4 or 5 to 1 for the Derby, is Carlton House that far above average?
Recital won the Derrinstown trial, RPR gave him a rating of 118 which is pretty much on par with my opinion, but having gone back through the Derrinstown, RPR has only given ratings of 115+ to 4 O"Brien horses to then go on to the Derby.. There record having gone onto the Derby is - 2x firsts [High Chaparral and Galileo],  1x second [Fame and Glory behind Sea The Stars] 1x third [Dylan Thomas@25/1 to Sir Percy]... All these 5 went onto to be proved as proper group1 performers so that aids a bit of confidence in what i think of Recital plus the fact Aidan O"B used dual pacemakers for Recital and not for Seville is a clue imo as to which horse he favours.. Yeats got 115+ by RPR after winning the Derrinstown but injury prevented him running again that year, again he went on to be a decent sort :)
Recital is 8/1 and drifting with some, pretty much the market going on the info from the coolmore website saying there Derby runners are not decided, this doesn"t worry me as A-o"B has ran every fit Derrinstown winner and most of his placed ones in the Derby, the market is knee jerking imho...
Nathanial and Native Khan of the others are live outsiders imho, Nathanial especially is far to big of a price imo...

The Oaks is a head scratcher, a case can be made for a few of these, out of all the trials upto now Dancing Rain catches my eye, nothing more than a gut feel so at 25/1 she is worth a speculative punt....I personally find Fillies are a rum bunch to assess at the best of times so i"m taking a different approach for this years Oaks from how i"ve done it in previous years... :)

Good luck all with whatever takes your fancy this year....

noble1:
Just backing the two today who both run in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Banimpire will have a great shout if they go to quick so each way for me, any other pace then Emiyna is the one to beat.. Both have progressed from 2 to 3, both love the quicker ground, Banimpire has beat the colts in the Ballysax already, Emiyna won the Athasi Stakes with a eye catching turn of foot gaining 4 lengths on the field within the last 1/2 furlong, Laughing Lashes went with her but Emiyna had her well held imho and the way Oxx"s filly traveled throughout the race oozed class...

1000 GUINEAS IRISH - Emiyna and Banimpire

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

[*] Previous page