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What does this line mean?

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oneill1970:
I"ve come up against the following betting pattern a few times, and I"d be interested to hear comments on what it represents.  Normally the villain has raised pre-flop and I"ve called OOP with something like AQo from the blinds.  The flop comes down, it"s uncoordinated and it"s missed me entirely.  The action then goes something like this:

Flop:
Villain min-bets - I call (nice implied odds!)

Turn misses me:
Villain min-bets - I call (nicer odds, hmm, maybe he"s got nothing...)

River misses me and doesn"t complete any draws:
Villain bets pot.

What hand does this pattern represent?  A fish playing a set?  A missed draw?  Ace high getting desperate?  Thoughts would be welcome, especially as I can"t imagine playing anything this way!

Swinebag:
good question - my honest answer is that I don"t know.

The main reason being that the action rarely goes that way with me. I either fold flop or c/r flop as a bluff.

The min bet normally means one of the following in order of liklihood IMO

1. a marginal starting hand that has connected, albeit weakly with the flop (e.g. A7 on a 7JK board
2. a weak starting hand that doesn"t improve (but as he was the aggressor, he feels the need to bet again)
3= a strong starting hand with a wet or seemingly unfavourable flop (e.g. JJ no hearts on a all heart board with one overcard
3= a draw
5. a strong hand that is being slowplayed

That covers nearly everything so calling the min bets on the flop and turn just gets you to the river without narrowing villains range so when the pot size bet comes on the river you are left with a tough decision. The villain is mostly turning his hand into a bluff, but he doesn"t realise this so it may be a bluff that you cant beat

The trouble with these min cbets is that the bettor doesn"t know why he is betting (is it for value or as a bluff?).

bottom line is that it is a weak line that should be exploited.

An easy answer to this question is to just call river every time and see what happens ;D ;D

deanp27:
AQ offsuit and implied odds do not go together in the same sentence.

You need stack sizes, villain reads and his position at the table to give a proper answer but mostly I"d fold turn but if calling turn i"d call alot of rivers but totally depends.

AMRN:
Interesting situation, but like Rob, probably not a situation I would allow my self to get into.

Calling from the blinds with AQo is probably a leak - much better to 3-bet and take the initiative for future streets. If you miss the flop, at least you can continue to represent strength on later streets and make it look believable - and there"s no guarantee that villain connects with the board, meaning you get to take it down through simple aggression.

Once you"ve flatted pre, floating out of position (twice) is another leak (imo). By taking the passive float line, you aren"t selling a tale of strength here, which makes it hard for you to win on the turn or river, unless you connect with the board. If he has anything at all, it"s now very unlikely that he"s going to fold on the river - all good if you connect, but means you can"t win the hand if you don"t...... so put simply, your floating here is fishing, rather than floating with the intention of taking the hand down later on.

His pot bet on the river could mean anything - either a monster that he hopes to get bigger value for; a marginal one pair hand that he now figures is good given your lack of aggression and which he is planning to call with if you suddenly show up with a river check/raise; or a complete bluff to exploit your lack of aggression.

A 3-bet pre, or even a donk lead on the flop, would have cost you about the same as calling min bets on flop and river, got you far more information, and avoided facing a difficult hero call on the river when you don"t have a clue where you are. It would also give you a much better image - the line of call, check/call, check/call, check/fold is so weak and very exploitable.

Aggro FTW

oneill1970:
Great replies - thanks!

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