Poker Forum > Strategy
Hand from the team event.
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: George2Loose on October 27, 2011, 13:57:26 PM ---
--- Quote from: pables on October 27, 2011, 12:49:37 PM ---
It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below.
--- End quote ---
ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?
--- End quote ---
What do you think is Mikey"s 3 bet range here George?
PHIL_TC:
But Jon I think you"re proved wrong with 4 of the top 5 individuals including my team APAT Forum all failing to get medals in Team event :
Ian Thompson 2nd - APAT Forum
Karl McDonald 3rd - A World of Poker
John Murray 4th - Live Pub Poker League
George Lawson 5th - Newcastle Poker Forum
A great example of Team points scoring was for example silver medalists The Hendon Mob, had 6 in the top 50, but only one making it through to the top 20 x
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: TheSnapper on October 27, 2011, 00:03:49 AM ---
Will run some numbers later but intuitively I suspect that this is not a good move versus Ians opening range. Dont think he folds enough.
--- End quote ---
Confounded by the numbers yet again. Ignoring Noble"s "players yet to act" factor ( temporarily ) the numbers are suprisingly revealing.
We have a spot where an uber nit open raises from mp and a nit 3bet jams from lp with 99.....
Raiser will fold 58% :o Assuming Ian folds JJ :o :o
99 has 36% equity when called :o
cEV for jamming is +3383 :o :o :o
That all has to be weighted against.......
27% You will exit the tourney
58% You will find a fold and win a pot of 4300 to increase your stack by 25%
15% You will double up to 36100 ( a healthy 45bb"s ) a stack increase of 112%
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: PHIL_TC on October 27, 2011, 14:47:13 PM ---
But Jon I think you"re proved wrong with 4 of the top 5 individuals including my team APAT Forum all failing to get medals in Team event :
Ian Thompson 2nd - APAT Forum
Karl McDonald 3rd - A World of Poker
John Murray 4th - Live Pub Poker League
George Lawson 5th - Newcastle Poker Forum
A great example of Team points scoring was for example silver medalists The Hendon Mob, had 6 in the top 50, but only one making it through to the top 20 x
--- End quote ---
You"re looking at the map to a team medal upside down ;D
The relevant stat is that the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place teams all had a player on the final table.
It"s a necessary - but not sufficient - condition to put your team into contention.
If you play weakly because of the team element it could harm your chances of making the final table - and your final table could have been what tips your team into a winning position.
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 26, 2011, 16:36:15 PM ---
model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!
--- End quote ---
Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.
Where can we find that tool?
Effective stacks are 17000 btw.
Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......
JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo
seems a wide estimation ???
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