Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: RicayBoy on December 20, 2011, 11:58:26 AM
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This was (in effect) my exit hand at the Goliath and a virtually identical situation came up in an online qualifier last night. I won the hand last night, but the opponent wasn"t impressed with the play.
I can"t remember the exact chip counts but in both cases I had a similar chip stack to my opponent, we were both around 30/35 blinds deep and the blinds were worth winning.
Early position (pretty solid) villain sticks in a 3.5 x raise. It is a larger raise than the table norm which is around min plus/2.5 x
I am on the button with 10c 10d and decide to call the raise as I don"t want to be shoved on if I re-raise.
The flop comes 7h 8s 9c and the villain leads out with another big bet of around 75 pc of the pot. Now I think that barring a set, that"s about as good as it gets for 10 10 and shove. The villain has to call 23 x (ish) into a 46 x (ish) pot and on both occasions they insta-called and showed Qd Qh
The first time I missed, the second time I hit a six and won the pot.
Question 1: Am I playing this situation optimally - If not what should I be doing? Can I afford to just call the flop bet? Should I ever be folding on that flop?
Question 2: Should it always be an insta-call from my opponent? My image is not overly loose and I can have quite a few hands that are already beating him? I suppose 2/1 means that he does?
Any views gratefully received.
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No problem with your play at all. If you were to 3-bet pre, you should do so with a plan, and given that he has made a huge raise UTG, and with your read that he is a "solid" player, it should be safe to assume that he won"t be folding to your 3-bet, and if he"s any good he won"t be flatting either.... so if you 3-bet here, expect to be 4-bet..... and if you fold to a 4-bet, then you have turned a semi premium hand into a bluff.
I much prefer to call here and play the hand in position post flop, plus you are getting reasonable implied odds to set mine given you are both 30+ deep. Assuming he c-bets 100% of flops though after a big UTG raise, you will probably have some tough decisions to make before the hand is over!
Short of the flop being TTx, it is pretty much ideal and gives you the perfect semi bluff opportunity, and your stack is perfectly sized for the shove.
As to whether his call was correct or not, ask yourself if you would ever fold in his spot with QQ.....
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Do we know if we were nearer 30 or 35 BB"s? Also when the blinds are going up?
I am not sure that it is profitable to be calling in this spot pre flop given stack sizes. Its going to leave us with tricky decisions post flop when an Ace/King/Queen/Jack peel off and we have no idea where we are. Unless we have a plan of what to do when this happens then I dont think we are quite deep enough to just set mine.
We cant 3 bet here either as we are rarely beating anything that 4bets apart from AK.
I am a nit so could prob find a fold pre here given reads on opponenet and bet sizing. Stack sizes are just bleurgh though, would prob flick the call in pre in annoyance. Flop plays itself.
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I"m also in the fold pre camp, we do not have the implied odds to set mine and we put ourselves in a spot where we"ll most likely win small or lose big.
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Meh seems fine/standard to me
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It"s always hard with these without any stats but assuming our opponent is a fairly standard APAT level player.
What is a reasonable range for us to give our opponent preflop? (do we have any stats on PFR or PFR from EP?) Given than he has raised bigger than normal it"s reasonable to assume a strong one (I know strong is supposed to mean weak etc, but it doesn"t). So How strong of a range do we give him. The early position should make it stronger again. What hands are in this range, certainly AA,KK and QQ. I also think we could include AK and maybe AQs. How do we fare against that range?
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.721% 61.52% 00.20% 40030820 129347.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 38.279% 38.08% 00.20% 24778038 129347.00 { TcTd }
OK so we don"t like that. What if we add AQos and AJ
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.953% 53.76% 00.20% 60751860 221277.00 { QQ+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 46.047% 45.85% 00.20% 51817650 221277.00 { TcTd }
This is still a fold
If we add JJ, 99 and 88
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.846% 50.64% 00.20% 72838680 294597.00 { JJ+, 99-88, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 49.154% 48.95% 00.20% 70405662 294597.00 { TcTd }
OK now we are nearly 50/50 but I think our range is far to wide here and our hand plays terrible against this range post flop anyway.
So fold pre without implied odds. It"s not really a spot where you can lose a small pot or win a big one and as other have said it"s really hard to know where you are post flop.
As played it"s easy, get it in on the flop. We have flopped golden and become a favorite against all of the above hand ranges.
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After we see the result it is obv much easier for us all to find reasons to fold pre, but in reality, don"t we all flat call and then get it in on the flop in that situation? I reckon most of us probably would.
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Meh seems fine/standard to me
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After we see the result it is obv much easier for us all to find reasons to fold pre, but in reality, don"t we all flat call and then get it in on the flop in that situation? I reckon most of us probably would.
Exactly.
35x deep.... I think it"s overly nitty to be chucking TT away on the button against a single raiser.
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After we see the result it is obv much easier for us all to find reasons to fold pre, but in reality, don"t we all flat call and then get it in on the flop in that situation? I reckon most of us probably would.
Exactly.
35x deep.... I think it"s overly nitty to be chucking TT away on the button against a single raiser.
+1
Against very specific opponents who would double-barrel with overs you could perhaps take a risk and call flop. However the line you"ve taken is totally standard.
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Thanks very much for the posts. I must admit folding pre was not something I had seriously considered, but I suppose if I consider my opponent very tight I have enough to chips to wait for a better spot and of course avoid any difficult decisions post-flop.
Whilst the flop was a good one for me, if I put his opening range as say pairs 88 and better, AK and AQ and possibly AJ s (I"m virtually never putting him on nothing), it does mean that a couple of his possible starting hands 88 and 99 that I was crushing pre flop have now overtaken me.
Would a tightish player always C-bet that flop with AK or AQ or would he just give up and check fold to live to fight another day knowing that I would almost always be ahead of him? Should I have taken the hint with the big C-bet or is it just impossible to fold 10 10 there. I"m still 38 pc against AA KK or QQ but a bigger dog (31 pc) against JJ and now 88 and 99...
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Would a tightish player always C-bet that flop with AK or AQ or would he just give up and check fold to live to fight another day knowing that I would almost always be ahead of him?
You have pegged him as a decent player. no decent player would open 3.5x preflop, then just check/fold the flop without having a go at it. I would expect either a c-bet or a check/raise, perhaps a check/call, but never a check/fold.
Should I have taken the hint with the big C-bet or is it just impossible to fold 10 10 there. I"m still 38 pc against AA KK or QQ but a bigger dog (31 pc) against JJ and now 88 and 99...
Once you have decided to play the hand preflop, you can never ever fold to a c-bet on this flop.
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Why can"t a decent player check/fold a flop that hits a preflop cold caller"s range?
Don"t think c-betting this flop with ak would be 100% standard at all as the preflop raiser
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After we see the result it is obv much easier for us all to find reasons to fold pre, but in reality, don"t we all flat call and then get it in on the flop in that situation? I reckon most of us probably would.
Exactly.
35x deep.... I think it"s overly nitty to be chucking TT away on the button against a single raiser.
Agreed. Amazed how many people are folding here. And at the range people are putting the raiser on. Wonder if they"d do the same with Jacks?
And if people are throwing away tens on the button against a single raiser can you let me know when you"re next playing please. I"ll be the one raising every hand with garbage knowing you"re not getting involved unless you have JJ+, maybe AK. :)
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After we see the result it is obv much easier for us all to find reasons to fold pre, but in reality, don"t we all flat call and then get it in on the flop in that situation? I reckon most of us probably would.
excellent point
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Why can"t a decent player check/fold a flop that hits a preflop cold caller"s range?
Don"t think c-betting this flop with ak would be 100% standard at all as the preflop raiser
Agree with your point in general, however having made such a huge opening raise, check/folding here feels spewy. If he had opened to a more standard raise, then I agree check/fold would be fine in this spot..... it"s his massive open raise that screws the hand up for him imo.
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I can find the fold here on a good day (I would also have some days where I shove, these are bad days). I probably call far too often in this spot in real life.
I will have folded the best hand quite often but it is not that great of a spot (if the raise was 2.5 I change my opinion quite a lot). Certainly would not consider it overly nitty (it"s a bit nitty but not that bad). I have done it with JJ and AK at live APAT events in fact when I did not like the spots, yes to a single raise.
I think we are not giving him enough credit for the 3.5x raise as this normally means strength (unless we have seen him doing this before but I am assuming his previous raises have been normal size). It"s also an EP raise. It"s not profitable to set mine.
If you call what flop are you hoping to see? Why are we calling? We seem to be calling as we have a pair of tens do we think they are ahead of our opponents range? What is our opponents range when he raises more than normal?
I really don"t like this spot with TT. 100BB deep I am set mining all day long and expect to make money.
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100BB deep I am set mining all day long and expect to make money.
the number of BBs you have should be irrelevant when considering a set-mining call..... what happens if someone re-raises to 12x before it gets to you.... you would only be getting 8/1 - not good enough to set-mine.
imo getting around 10/1 is borderline ok to set-mine. I prefer to be getting 15/1 or more, but with a chance to double up to a 70x stack in a tourney, I think getting 10/1 in this OP spot is reasonably ok..... but borderline.
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100BB deep I am set mining all day long and expect to make money.
the number of BBs you have should be irrelevant when considering a set-mining call..... what happens if someone re-raises to 12x before it gets to you.... you would only be getting 8/1 - not good enough to set-mine.
imo getting around 10/1 is borderline ok to set-mine. I prefer to be getting 15/1 or more, but with a chance to double up to a 70x stack in a tourney, I think getting 10/1 in this OP spot is reasonably ok..... but borderline.
If somebody raises it 12x you don"t call - the implied odds are not there
The number of BB (or the implied odds at least) is the most relevant point when considering set mining. My post is bad though I meant effective stacks (ie both myself and my opponent are 100bb deep). In which case if the raise is to 3.5BB it"s very profitable to set mine, although the whole issue with it being 3.5x rather than 2.5x probably does not exist that deep.
EDIT:- Some players have sizing tells 100BB deep when they raise 3xbb (with smaller hand) or 4xbb (with bigger hand)
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the number of BBs you have should be irrelevant when considering a set-mining call.....
I am really suprised to see you make this statement Steve, I would have thought that the decision to set mine or not is exclusively based on our implied odds and so stack size is critically important?
Furthermore, against a tight opening range its true to suggest we likely need lesser odds to set mine since the open raiser is more likely to hold a hand that can stack off when we hit our set. Even so, 10/1 is a little too short a price imho and think 15"s is about as short a price we should take.
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the number of BBs you have should be irrelevant when considering a set-mining call.....
I am really suprised to see you make this statement Steve, I would have thought that the decision to set mine or not is exclusively based on our implied odds and so stack size is critically important?
then you missed my point which was somewhat tongue in cheek - I was merely saying that stack size is not the be all and end all when considering implied odds - just because we are 100x deep does not mean we always have implied odds, which is the way the post I quoted might have read. I guess I was being a pedantic mofo ;)
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After we see the result it is obv much easier for us all to find reasons to fold pre, but in reality, don"t we all flat call and then get it in on the flop in that situation? I reckon most of us probably would.
excellent point
My life is complete :)