Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: ronaldo07 on February 03, 2012, 21:34:21 PM
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Live £25 2nd chance mtt 49 runners 11 left playing 6 handed.
Payout is
590
380
270
210
150
100
BB been at table 1/2 hour seen him play 2 hands 1st he calls 3x raise from bb and gets it AI with As 5s v Qd 10h on a Ks Js 9d flop n turns the flush. 2nd 1 I raise him with Ad Qd to 9k and he calls from BB he checks 7d 7h Qs flop I bet 10k n he folds.
Next time he is in BB......
Stack is 104k blinds 2k/4k hand is 10c 10d
BB stack is 117k
utg folds
I make it 9k
fold
fold
sb fold
bb calls
flop 5s 8c 9d
BB check
I bet 10k
BB calls
turn 2s
pot 40k
BB check
Whats your move????
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Bet call 25k all day long
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Bet call 25k all day long
just that
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Bet call 25k all day long
just that
as above
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I can see the temptation to slow down here because you don"t want to lose to the only player who can bust you.
However the guy is a station so will probably not bluff his missed draws on the river. I"d fire again for value
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I can see the temptation to slow down here because you don"t want to lose to the only player who can bust you.
However the guy is a station so will probably not bluff his missed draws on the river. I"d fire again for value
not in agreement with the above bolded Rob, the villain played a draw fast on a flop, so i would not assume him to be a loose passive sort based on that...
it will be interesting with the spade turn if he check raises your bet imho :) if he is calling suited aces in the bb then SC"s are in his range plus all the usual pairs [i"d assume]...
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how did the chips go in with the A5s flopped nut flush draw, did he check raise or lead call?
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I thought he called off on the draw with the A5s hand. Must have misunderstood or misread OP.
Have now reread and it"s not clear at all if he played his draw fast there or if he called off.
However, I have also noticed that he has only played 3 hands since Hero has been at the table, each one being his BB.
I think there is now a better argument for checking back and keeping the pot small for the river, but I don"t think you will narrow his range enough if you check back which means if villain bets river, you will get to play a smaller pot but will have little idea how good your hand is.
Having said all of that you have an overpair and 21 bigs left with 10 bigs in the pot. Your next bet will leave you pot committed. I think this is enough to play the hand to the death.
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This thinking Swine is what swayed me to shove. Alas he insta flips over 99. My1st thought after the hand was that shoving was terrible there. On reflection I"m thinking it was defo the best play in that spot as he"ll call with lots of draws And TP hands and if he folds em well I still take down a decent pot and CL.
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are u just trying to find justification for the jam on the turn Ronaldo?
personally i don"t like it, rainbow flop but co-ordinated, a few random thoughts as the football is on :) u have a vulnerable hand with that flop, the cbet for me is to small, it may entice villain to make the odd call with flyers like JQ TJ[obv] KJ AJ plus any 8 9 7 6 Q even a 5 etc wont be welcomed on the turn.. size the cbet for the potential outs villain may have - 2/3 to pot, anywhere in that sizing is ok imho with so many turn and river cards that help villain to overtake your hand.. [or there can be arguments i guess for small ball it flop and turn for 2 streets of value]
holding 2 tens doesn"t help on this texture, as villains check call range is weighed more to the 1pair OR hands that have us beat area imo... with not much to go by reads wise its wrong imo to assume villain will call turn jams light when ur both 1st and 2nd currently... [albeit with fairly shallow stacks it seems]
a good one to analyse and reflect on imo , nice post sir........
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I"m not trying to justyfy anything and as said before shoving felt wrong as soon as the hand finished. Looking after I"m sure shoving was right Whats he calling with apart from set or flopped str8 whats infront of me?
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I"m not trying to justyfy anything and as said before shoving felt wrong as soon as the hand finished. Looking after I"m sure shoving was right Whats he calling with apart from set or flopped str8 whats infront of me?
without getting to far into cbet ranges/texture theory plus player style, flop textures and reasons for and against cbetting or delayed cbetting etc... below is a attempt to try to get you thinking beyond i have a over pair...
readless - villain has got jiggy with Axs when he had a FD on the flop, i assume when he or the villain were fairly shallow as his current stack size is only 29bb and he has folded to a cbet on a Q77 flop.... nothing out of the ordinary, so std assumptions readless basically...
flop 589 rainbow
1st p/f thoughts - whats his range to call our ep raise - 22-QQ maybe even KK AA a very very small amount of the time SC"s 56 67 89 9T , BW"s TJs QJs KJs KQs add Axs AQo as well.... so a reasonble call range of 10 to 12% to analyse plus lets also say/assume villain check calls our cbet with overs that have gut str8s minimum then his possible range to check call could be -
QQ-55,A9s A8s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s so equity wise we are behind to his continuing range when he calls our cbet, add in a very very small % of the time that he might flat AA KK then our equity is slightly worse [obviously]....
this is where we get into the realm of delayed cbetting these type of textures when the flop textures helps villains range far more than our own, delay cbet our air range and our strong and nutted top part range, check behind our middle range with decent SD equity but can continue if villain checks twice or leads out small etc etc.... the other realm is cbetting the flop for protection and value, but not to small, we vary cbets according to possible outs that villain may have that will improve him to the best hand... both cbet strategies depend on your own style of play, villain style and stack sizes, any reads etc etc....
we decide to overbet jam turn bricks approx 85k into 40k if he checks - lets assume he only calls with A9s tptk [3combos] 9Tss top pair plus a spade draw [1combo] and TJss oesd plus a FD [1combo] , we get approx 5 calls which we are ahead but still get outdrawn 25% against those combos, we get 33 folds but we get 27 calls with us behind with only at most a 5% chance of sucking out against those 27combos... so its -Cev , its even worse if we get into $ev calc"s [icm]...
the above is assuming he check calls gut overs oop and underpairs 66 77, take away a % of the time the overs and underpairs c/c then the figures get far worse.
to be profitable to jam turn the villain needs to be calling pretty wide p/f and check calling really wide, hard to assume with no reads, so expect plenty of times where we get stacked if we continue to do this move, leaky, what do you reckon?? awkward stack sizes, not the best flop texture we could hope for and we are currently 2nd with 11 left etc etc....
i wrote the above in hope that it gets u thinking....