Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: pokerpops on March 19, 2012, 10:31:29 AM
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Casino League Final £0+£10+£10 - £2,000 added. 60 runners
Level 4 150/300
Three limpers to my BB I raise QQ to 1050
Two callers inc SB
Stacks
MP - 7k. He"s been at the table from the start. Passive, called two streets and folded river a few times...
SB - 15k. Youngish female, joined the game late and sat down with the full 13k stack. No reads really other than she"s a regular...
Me - 18k. I"m probably the most active player on the table
Flop 764hh
sb checks
WWYD?
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I would have raised more pre-flop.
As played, pot is roughly 3400, I"m leading out for 2700.
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Raised more pre.
On a wet flop like this I"m slowing the feck down... limp callers ranges all over.
Im check calling the flop and see what the turn brings x
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1200 pre, as played checking is a disaster. Bet 1700 and snap off the 7k guy. If lady checkraises I would consider folding.
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checking is a disaster
I don"t post in the academy often, so would be interested to know why checking here is a disaster... in my experience a flop like that is hitting a typical limp / callers range? Suited connectors, low pocket pair set mining etc?
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checking is a disaster
I don"t post in the academy often, so would be interested to know why checking here is a disaster... in my experience a flop like that is hitting a typical limp / callers range? Suited connectors, low pocket pair set mining etc?
So if they bet out do you assume you"re behind and fold?
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checking is a disaster
I don"t post in the academy often, so would be interested to know why checking here is a disaster... in my experience a flop like that is hitting a typical limp / callers range? Suited connectors, low pocket pair set mining etc?
So if they bet out do you assume you"re behind and fold?
No.... as I said...
On a wet flop like this I"m slowing the feck down... limp callers ranges all over.
Im check calling the flop and see what the turn brings x
Just wondering exactly what range you"re putting the limp callers on? x
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Because it might hit one of them doesn"t mean we can"t bet our hand for value vs a whole host of smaller pocket pairs, one pair hands and draws. It"s a fairly narrow range that beats us and we still in great shape vs some of our opponents value hands.
If you are check/calling, you might as well take the lead and bet yourself. In fact I"d prefer to check fold than check/call.
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Also if you check call on the flop, they check back after you on the turn - you"ve just given anyone you"re beating every chance to fairly cheaply outdraw you on the river.
EDIT: and it"s a pretty wide range.
OP said the first bettor is passive - so he might have a fairly wide range, not necessarily the expected limp call range.
The SB made up the blind because it was cheap then called the reraise because the original limper called and she had good odds.
i.e. the original limper might have a much better hand than you might expect and the sb might have a much worse one.
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1200 pre, as played checking is a disaster. Bet 1700 and snap off the 7k guy. If lady checkraises I would consider folding.
I"m not disagreeing, but what do we gain by making it 1200 rather than 1050?
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So we lead out on the flop... onto an extremely wet flop.
We"ve basically broadcast our hand range pre with the raise.
You don"t think a decent player would re-raise you on that flop? Are you prepared to get it all in (looking at stack sizes) on that flop to a re-raise or are you raise / folding?
Personally I think you"re wondering into a world of pain leading out. Just my opinion x
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1200 pre, as played checking is a disaster. Bet 1700 and snap off the 7k guy. If lady checkraises I would consider folding.
I"m not disagreeing, but what do we gain by making it 1200 rather than 1050?
150 more chips per player lol
It"s just slightly bigger enough to discourage 3/4 action OOP. Some may go bigger, like 1500 but I tend to keep my sizings in general smaller than some live players.
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I don"t post in the academy often, so would be interested to know why checking here is a disaster... in my experience a flop like that is hitting a typical limp / callers range? Suited connectors, low pocket pair set mining etc?
Versus a limping range of ..
TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s, that's a total of 210 combo's
economically weighted towards suited hands and doesn't account for unsuited connectors.
We are in bad shape versus...
44,66,77
sets 9 combo's
76
two pair 3 combo's
6% of that limping range.
We get value from...
88,99,TT
overpair 18 combo's
A7,87
Top pair 6 combo's
A6,56
Mid Pair 6 combo's
22,33,55,45,A4
Weak pair 24 combo's
Various hh holdings
flushdraw 17 combo's
A5,98,
oesd 8 combo's
38% of that limping range.
So we should bet for value and rely on our reads to make a decision if we are raised. I suspect bet / folding is likely to lose less than check / calling.
Betting the flop for 1700 - 1900 targets the weaker end of their range whereas a closer to potsize bet is more likely to fold out those weaker hands.
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Thanks Brendan was hoping you"d post something like that.. presuming this is heads up? What about a 3-way pot?
Be interesting to see Dave"s read and how it played out anyway.. I"ve still got a bad feeling x
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By nature, I don"t think this would be posted if David had bet the flop and all folded.
Thanks Brendan, you have put what I was trying to say much more eloquently than I could. Although my excuse is that I am at work on my iPhone.
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Thanks Brendan was hoping you"d post something like that.. presuming this is heads up? What about a 3-way pot?
Be interesting to see Dave"s read and how it played out anyway.. I"ve still got a bad feeling x
Even 3 way we still need to bet the flop for value.
Sometimes you get it in bad but it was still the right thing to do. Even maniac fish flop sets sometimes.
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By nature, I don"t think this would be posted if David had bet the flop and all folded.
I play poker most weeks with Dave... this might be a cunningly disguised blatent "I bet on the flop and they all folded" brag.. but I suspect not ;D
Even 3 way we still need to bet the flop for value.
So if we"re typically 62% fav against 1 player, how are we fairing against 2 players?... got to be close?
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We are in bad shape versus...
44,66,77
sets 9 combo's
76
two pair 3 combo's
6% of that limping range.
.....and all the hh hands?
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We are in bad shape versus...
44,66,77
sets 9 combo's
76
two pair 3 combo's
6% of that limping range.
.....and all the hh hands? Heart Heart
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By nature, I don"t think this would be posted if David had bet the flop and all folded.
Thanks Brendan, you have put what I was trying to say much more eloquently than I could. Although my excuse is that I am at work on my iPhone.
How very perceptive that first sentence is, and the post from TheSnapper (Brendan?) really sums up why we should bet for value on this flop.
I had a brainfart moment in play and mangled the whole thing. But I want a few more opinions on the whole preflop raise size and best line postflop before I confess.
Suffice to say that it did end badly as is implied in my diary post.
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We are in bad shape versus...
44,66,77
sets 9 combo's
76
two pair 3 combo's
6% of that limping range.
.....and all the hh hands? Heart Heart
Exactly. You said we were in bad shape vs sets and 2 pair combos - 6% of the range. Why didn"t you include heart heart hands in the range against which we are in bad shape?
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Even 3 way we still need to bet the flop for value.
So if we"re typically 62% fav against 1 player, how are we fairing against 2 players?... got to be close?
Assuming they both flat our flop bet with similar ranges for both oppo"s and including some off suit connectors in one of the two calling ranges.
Board: 6h 7h 4d
equity
Hand 0: 41.093% { QQ }
Hand 1: 29.910% { TT-22, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s }
Hand 2: 28.997% { TT-22, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o, 43o }
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Exactly. You said we were in bad shape vs sets and 2 pair combos - 6% of the range. Why didn"t you include heart heart hands in the range against which we are in bad shape?
We are ahead of flush draws so I have categorised those as hands against which we should bet for value.
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Hand 0: 41.093% { QQ }
Hand 1: 29.910% { TT-22, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s }
Hand 2: 28.997% { TT-22, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Cheers Brendan, really appreciated
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Ur image?
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Exactly. You said we were in bad shape vs sets and 2 pair combos - 6% of the range. Why didn"t you include heart heart hands in the range against which we are in bad shape?
We are ahead of flush draws so I have categorised those as hands against which we should bet for value.
I"ve read the OP as saying the board is flushed - all hearts... "764hh"
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I"ve read the OP as saying the board is flushed - all hearts... "764hh"
You could be right but I understood it to mean 764 two of which were hearts. The suits for QQ would help too, if we hold the Qh it adds about 2% to our equity versus flush draws.
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It means 2 hearts on the flop. 3 hearts would be hhh
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In multilimped pots - I normally make my standard raise then add a BB for every limper in the pot, so here I open to 1500-1700. Anything less than 1500 prices in the first limper.
Brendan pretty much sums up why we bet the flop. I"m also pretty happy to play for stacks here, as most players who limp call tend to overplay a lot of hands that you beat here. Dean"s point about folding to the lady in SB is valid but I probably still get them in here
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I"ve read the OP as saying the board is flushed - all hearts... "764hh"
+1
So come on then Dave.. do I need a 50p ready for Thursday night? x
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So - raise slightly, or a lot, more pre. Yeah, I can see that. An extra 150-300 pre probably still gets the same 2callers but that adds value to my hand which is obviously premium.
In an ideal world then, as played to here, I bet 1700-1800 into a pot of 3400. Let"s hypothetically assume that"s what I did, and that I get one fold and a raise from the SB who has c15k...
Are we folding to an assumed set?
Thanks to all for their thoughts on this hand, which I"m happy to admit to having absolutely butchered in a moment of supreme madness and spew. I posted it here to help to remind me that I need to not do shizz like this, and to get some thoughts on how the hand should have played out.
I"ll post what actually happened in my diary thread.
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This now depends on a number of things as to whether I continue.
The size and speed of her raise
What hands she is capable of raising with. Will she go crazy with a small overpair, does she play draws aggressively, does she overplay top pair type hands, does she trap with sets etc are things you may have gathered if she is a regular.
If she is generally passive, I might make my annual nit-fold
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This now depends on a number of things as to whether I continue.
The size and speed of her raise
What hands she is capable of raising with. Will she go crazy with a small overpair, does she play draws aggressively, does she overplay top pair type hands, does she trap with sets etc are things you may have gathered if she is a regular.
If she is generally passive, I might make my annual nit-fold
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SB - 15k. Youngish female, joined the game late and sat down with the full 13k stack. No reads really other than she"s a regular...
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I"d still go with as much people reading as I can to decide whether it"s worth folding - but in the absence of information I"m inclined to believe people know what they"re doing.
That could mean she"d check raise light, and it could mean she"d only be check raising with something that beats an overpair - either way in an MTT I"d be inclined towards caution.