Amateur Poker Association & Tour

Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AAroddersAA on May 01, 2012, 20:42:21 PM

Title: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 01, 2012, 20:42:21 PM
What WOULD you do???

50p/£1 live game at a local Aspers casino, game is a standard UK live cash game 10 handed. It is playing loose/passive only one player has shown any type of aggression, he has raised a few times and bet out on a few flops but seems aware of players and is not bluffing the calling stations, the one pot he played against you he c-bet a raggy flop strongly and you folded your small pair. He has also just stacked a player when he made trips on the flop (A-A-9 rainbow board). Your image is pretty tight, you have raised a few hands but had to give up when you missed the flop. You did get KK and won a decent pot (three streets of value) from a player who called you down with TT (he has since left).

There are two early position limper"s (unlikely to be trapping) and then a raise to £7, from the more aggressive player. A call (from a passive player who calls a lot) and you are in the SB.

You have AdKd, if you call it is a very good bet the limpers will also call. They MAY fold to a raise.

You are playing £150, the OR covers you and the passive player is playing £60. Both limpers have about £100.

What do you do ????

WELL WHAT ?? :-)

*I will post the next part of this hand tomorrow but would like to get an idea of thinking at each stage of the hand.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 01, 2012, 21:02:54 PM
pop it to £28-£30 planning to never fold versus passive guy.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Santino67 on May 01, 2012, 21:04:28 PM
Don"t want 4/5 way action here OOP, though it appears you"re probably getting at least 2 callers with most raises. TBH it"s a 3 bet anyway, probably anywhere between £24-28.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Swinebag on May 01, 2012, 21:24:58 PM
£30 for me - no need to use anything other than the red chips
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AMRN on May 02, 2012, 10:23:19 AM

pop it to £28-£30 planning to never fold versus passive guy.


^This
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: dwh103 on May 02, 2012, 11:16:06 AM

£30 for me - no need to use anything other than the red chips


+1
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 02, 2012, 16:11:20 PM
Quote
would like to get an idea of thinking at each stage of the hand.


based on what i would of seen if i was at the table, thinking wise i"d be thinking about - what is the agg opp isolating with [what range] and how i think he will react to various 3bet sizes, what will he fold/call/4bet... same with the short LP stack opp, will he spew :) just call for example... what/how will or will they perceive your range to be... how do they play on the flop, you will whiff a lot of flops so what flop textures will u cbet/check/check fold, how will they react [mainly the agg opp] to a turn barrel, if firing multiple barrels with no hand, you"re obviously relying on fold equity [guesstimation wise how much will u have on various board textures based on how u"ve seen him play]..... and so on etc etc

being oop stinks, its hard to make money :)
if the agg opp is isolating with good hands i met be tempted to 3bet to say £20, if the agg opp flats and the LP calls, EV wise there is a good chance u keep a lot of AX KX hands in there range and u can get 1or 2streets of value out of the larger stack maybe... if say it ends up 4way u will still have good equity..
u will be in a tricky spot if the agg opp flats the 3bet and the LP opp jams, u"ll have to use your gut feel/reads to figure out what to do then - 5bet isolate or call the 4bet or god forbid contemplate a fold? :)
if say 1 limper or the BB for instance etc calls u met manipulate with your 3bet sizing the agg opp to play his big hands straight forward and sick/spewy as it sounds be able to fold..
use bigger 3bet sizing if u think u can isolate the LP short stack a lot, be it him only calling or jamming...

in a nut shell think ahead, not only i have a good hand i"ll re-raise.... have a plan :)
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on May 02, 2012, 17:15:20 PM
No one thinking of just flatting here? You are OOP, and you can really disguise your hand if you flop well, and get away cheaply if you don"t. Not saying it is the optimum play, but personally speaking these casino cash games can be very difficult to read, and I for one try and be unpredictable when I get the chance to play "em.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 02, 2012, 18:42:16 PM

in a nut shell think ahead, not only i have a good hand i"ll re-raise.... have a plan :)

And in this spot, that plan is???

Will post my own thoughts later as hopefully will get some more replies, but as ever the responses here are very good. I wonder what will happen? I bet we end up getting stacked by a set, I hate it when that happens :-)
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 02, 2012, 19:39:34 PM
sorry . i will reply in less than 5 words next time :)
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 02, 2012, 19:45:38 PM
sorry . i will reply in less than 5 words next time :)

Quote
would like to get an idea of thinking at each stage of the hand.

i thought u wanted to know the above...


Quote
And in this spot, that plan is???


3bet
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 02, 2012, 19:58:06 PM

sorry . i will reply in less than 5 words next time :)

Quote
would like to get an idea of thinking at each stage of the hand.

i thought u wanted to know the above...

*lol*

Yeah OK you have a point, I also wanted to know what you would actually do as well though though. I will work on making my posts clearer maybe I will add more words :-)

Can you run one of those clever odd calculations on the chances of you actually replying to a post in less than 5 words??? (Not that I am advocating doing it though)
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 02, 2012, 20:16:24 PM
Quote
Yeah OK you have a point, I also wanted to know what you would actually do as well though though. I will work on making my posts clearer maybe I will add more words :-)


Quote
if the agg opp is isolating with good hands i met be tempted to 3bet to say £20, if the agg opp flats and the LP calls, EV wise there is a good chance u keep a lot of AX KX hands in there range and u can get 1or 2streets of value out of the larger stack maybe... if say it ends up 4way u will still have good equity..
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 03, 2012, 17:42:16 PM
Thought I had updated this thread yesterday, did the post get deleted for taking the mick out of Noble (I am very sorry) :-)

Anyway we decided the 3-bet to £27 and both limper"s folded (bonus).

A flop then arrived of 2s-4c-Td

We have £123 behind with 57 in the middle. It is us to speak so what shall we do?
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 03, 2012, 17:54:13 PM

Thought I had updated this thread yesterday, did the post get deleted for taking the mick out of Noble (I am very sorry) :-)

Anyway we decided the 3-bet to £27 and both limper"s folded (bonus).

A flop then arrived of 2s-4c-Td

We have £123 behind with 57 in the middle. It is us to speak so what shall we do?


ugghhh what an ugly spot. oop versus two villains. Its good that the shorty has position on the OR so I like leading for £35 folding if raised.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 03, 2012, 17:59:59 PM
check
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 03, 2012, 18:09:36 PM

check


extreme Noble, a one word reply. How did it feel ;D
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 03, 2012, 19:41:48 PM


Thought I had updated this thread yesterday, did the post get deleted for taking the mick out of Noble (I am very sorry) :-)

Anyway we decided the 3-bet to £27 and both limper"s folded (bonus).

A flop then arrived of 2s-4c-Td

We have £123 behind with 57 in the middle. It is us to speak so what shall we do?


ugghhh what an ugly spot. oop versus two villains. Its good that the shorty has position on the OR so I like leading for £35 folding if raised.

Both limper have folded mate, does that change it for you?
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 03, 2012, 20:05:43 PM
you in sb original raiser and lp caller have seen the flop?
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 03, 2012, 20:23:30 PM

you in sb original raiser and lp caller have seen the flop?

Sorry my mistake had this hand mixed up with another one I was looking at, yes as you said we are three way.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Newportlad on May 03, 2012, 21:31:32 PM
For what its worth, i just like calling with AK here in the SB and seeing the flop. As has been stated previously, there are certain to be AX and KX in hands already, so your chances of hitting arent great and most importantly you are OOP.  If you make a big raise and get called, what are you doing when you miss here?  If you check to the 10 high board, then you are pretty clearly stating that you have AK, but by c.betting you are going to have to put a lot of your starting stack £150 into the pot on what is essentially a bluff. 
I just like trying to keep the pot small preflop as you are in a bad spot. No harm in just throwing the AK away if you miss the flop.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 03, 2012, 22:12:41 PM

For what its worth, i just like calling with AK here in the SB and seeing the flop. As has been stated previously, there are certain to be AX and KX in hands already, so your chances of hitting arent great and most importantly you are OOP.  If you make a big raise and get called, what are you doing when you miss here?  If you check to the 10 high board, then you are pretty clearly stating that you have AK, but by c.betting you are going to have to put a lot of your starting stack £150 into the pot on what is essentially a bluff. 
I just like trying to keep the pot small preflop as you are in a bad spot. No harm in just throwing the AK away if you miss the flop.


Its an option ok but its not all good. AK plays much better heads up so the less players see a flop the better.

We build a pot by raising pre so we can potentially win a huge pot when we do hit. I wouldn"t agree that it"s a certainty limpers hold Ax and Kx hands, somewhat likely ok certain, no. < Noble insert probability link here >

Also and significantly, we run the increased risk of getting outflopped when we do hit and are second best, the expensive place on the poker podium.

Not sure it matters much in this game but your SB raising range is super strong if AK isn"t included.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on May 04, 2012, 08:43:05 AM
I know what you are saying about thinning the field, but AK OOP in these cash games can land you in very expensive tricky positions, just like this. That is why flatting was definitely an option. As played I think you pretty much have to lead out, and fold to any raise, but hope to see a cheap turn and river!
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: WYoung83 on May 04, 2012, 14:30:03 PM
 (I replied to this other day but it was when the server was slow)

Anyway flatting is not the best line imo. It seems like negative play. Also i would personally raise bigger than £30. Maybe £40, trouble with live cash is that 3 betting small get peeled by more than 1 player, and thats a disaster taking this had 4 ways. If you hit A in 4 way pot your oop which makes it really hard to play. I would be hapy to take the dead money here or even play for stacks, if i get 5 bet.

(Just read whole thread).... yeh lead out now, bad flop for u, no real back doors and no big cards at all, in these games its hard to get people to fold pairs. Have to fold if he shoves on you.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 04, 2012, 17:10:09 PM
OK, Brendan is betting (I would also do this), Noble is checking (although I don"t think he had given up yet).

Anyway, we bet the flop as per Brendan we are leading £35 into £57. The OR calls (damn) and the other players folds. The turn pops - Qd

Its us to speak, pot is £127 out stack is £88

What now? Why? What do we think he has
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: WYoung83 on May 05, 2012, 22:40:45 PM
 I would actually shove this turn. Pretty hard for it to have helped his hand, and certainly improves your range from his POV. A Shove looks so strong here, i cant do EV calcs, (just tried and got confused lol)
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Santino67 on May 05, 2012, 23:26:00 PM

I would actually shove this turn. Pretty hard for it to have helped his hand, and certainly improves your range from his POV. A Shove looks so strong here, i cant do EV calcs, (just tried and got confused lol)


Tend to think same here. You"ve shown strength pre and on flop, though knowledge of particular oppenent would help.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 06, 2012, 05:36:32 AM

I would actually shove this turn. Pretty hard for it to have helped his hand, and certainly improves your range from his POV. A Shove looks so strong here, i cant do EV calcs, (just tried and got confused lol)


give it a go, post it and ask if its correct... [best way to learn]

as a quick rough estimate, with a possible 10 outs versus a range of say TT for a set , 99 and JJ equity wise AK would be around the 17% area + or - a percent.. if jamming the turn and u think villain will fold 15 to 20% ish of the time then u will break even EV wise.. some1 give the EV calc a bash, as a base guide the pot is 127 and 88 behind -> 88/215=41%  so u"d want 41 folds to break even if u have no outs whatsoever...

all on reads, as the villain isolated 2 limpers his flop calling a 3bet range would be likely TT+ and maybe a % of air with over-cards which he might float with [but we have no reads to make that assumption]
u could maybe with reads say he isolated with 99 maybe 88, AT met be a likely candidate in villains isolation range, but to calll a 3bet? hell if i know :)

all on reads, its hard to guess what he has based on hardly no info, jamming the turn is a option but not a wildly profitable one given the lack of knowledge imo... if u were playing these opponents on a regular basis then g-bucks wise by giving our hand a perceived range and comparing it to our opponents range, u could look at this completely differently in the long term, but at this level though do u need to play like that to make money?
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Fatcatstu on May 06, 2012, 11:18:14 AM
I would jam this turn and feel sick when he calls.

I realise that we have put a bit of money in, but surely there comes a point when we kind of say "ok, well done" and give up? Yes we leave ourselves open to be outplayed, but that is the risk you run playing out of position i suppose.

Meh, not sure what to do here, i think actually giving up most of the time feels right here, just not seeing what he has called with that we are gonna make lay down.

ALTHOUGH 80 odd-notes is a fair bit of money... could convice him to lay down.

My god....im confused.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: PHIL_TC on May 06, 2012, 12:16:32 PM
Raise pre to £30

Bet the flop.. hmmmm however putting myself in oppo"s shoes, given the positions, would be expecting C-bet large % of the time, so as long as I feel I still have show down or ahead (pretty likely on that flop) then I"m calling. So maybe checking is the right move.. I"d go on past history here to see what I could get away with. Can"t see the oppo going away at all here though. Feel like I"m flipping for the hand at this point.

Turn. I don"t see any sense in jamming here at all. If I felt I was flipping on the flop, why would I now jam in on the turn? Makes no sense. Oppo obviously feels they have value in the hand, I can"t see them going away here.

Personally I would think that I"ve put enough in the pot here already, check and be prepared to fold but hoping to see the river... if not seek a waitress and order another Guinness x
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: lucasj37 on May 06, 2012, 14:38:51 PM

I know what you are saying about thinning the field, but AK OOP in these cash games can land you in very expensive tricky positions, just like this. That is why flatting was definitely an option. As played I think you pretty much have to lead out, and fold to any raise, but hope to see a cheap turn and river!


This, why bloat the pot OOP with a drawing hand. See a cheap flop while disguising your hand. Now you have to c bet almost pot committing yourself with Ace high.

As played i don"t think he ever folds to a shove on the turn. Floating is pretty rare in these games, most are playing snap or just pressing buttons with too much beer inside of them.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 06, 2012, 17:06:50 PM
My thoughts and the EV Calculation, I really don"t know what I am supposed to do on this turn, the options seem to be shove or check/fold. I can"t put this guy on any kind of sensible range though based on what I know and how he has been playing it seems REALLY polarized, is it?

Our hand is AdKd and the board reads:-

2s-4c-Qd-Td

So we have the following outs to the nut"s

3d, 5d, 6d, 7d, 8d, 9d, Jd, Js, Jc, Jh

So as posted above 10 clean outs to the nut"s 2d and 4d may also make us the best hand a lot of the time but don"t give us the nuts.

I know what he actually has in this hand but I don"t know how to construct a range as his play is really strange. He has called a preflop 3-bet when we look really strong and a flop bet so it looks like he is meant to have something. On the flop there are no draws at all so he must have some sort of made hand. If it is a massive hand like a set, the board is so dry there is no need for him to raise as the board is so dry and AK is in our range (maybe AQ as well) or we have AA or KK so he does not need to raise the flop. Could he also be floating to see what we do on the turn? At the time this just seems really unlikely as our range should be super strong and he should know this, why has he not just gone away, he can"t expect us to fold AA or KK on the turn. So what the hell is his range?

Preflop to call the 3-bet I have him fairly wide, maybe any pair and suited connectors. We can even add broadway hands if we want, although he should not be calling with these as out range must dominate them all. He knows we are not 3-betting with air on this table, AK is probably bottom of our range. Then we get a super dry flop AA or KK is quite happy to get it in on that flop and he will know this. We fire out and he calls, WHAT CAN CALL?
Well a set should call here (I think)
JJ and QQ might call and see the turn - although QQ would be more likely to 4-bet pre on this table
Maybe there are a few AT and KT like hands in his range although there shouldn"t be JT and T9 should fold I think.
I don"t think he has AA or KK as they should have 4-bet pre as he has the loose calling station player still in (I think)

I can only put him on a set, and overpair. Or air doing some weird float play, which actually makes no sense. His range must be

22, 44, TT, JJ or QQ or some kind of really weird float/bluff after he calls the flop.

The Q is a bad card as it makes a set for QQ and that now beats AA or KK so he is only folding bluffs and JJ to our shove.

Our hand combinations are as follow"s

22 = 3 combos
44 = 3 combos
TT = 3 combos
JJ = 6 combos
QQ = 3 combos

so 12 hands he can call with and 6 hands he folds. Therefore our fold equity is 33% (ignoring the possibility of weird bluffs)

when we get called we have 10 outs against his range so get called 67% of the time and win the pot 20% of the time that we get called.

So in total we get called and win the pot 13.5% of the time
We get called and lose the pot 53.5% of the time

so from out spot on the turn we lose £88 53.5% of the time
We win £127 33% of the time
We win £215 13.5% of the time

53.5*88 = -£4708
33*127 = £4191
13.5*215 = £2902

so £4191+£2902-£4708 = £2385

£23.85/100 = £23.85

So Shoving the turn shows a profit of £23.85 if my range is right and if we remove any bluffs from his range but include JJ.

Noble (or anybody)???? How much sense does this make? Am I anyway near the right way of thinking when putting all this together? Have I left any hands out of his range? Should we include AA and KK (if we do it becomes more profitable to shove).
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on May 10, 2012, 13:33:16 PM
So what did he have?
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: deanp27 on May 10, 2012, 16:12:58 PM
3bet pre but no need to make £30 etc, I prefer a bit smaller even though it"s live cash as we are not super deep. You don"t have to CB 100% of flops as the preflop aggressor and I would check here but not necessarily fold.

Personally think calling pre here is a recipe for disaster
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 10, 2012, 16:30:54 PM
You don"t have to c-bet all flops but this one is a c-bet.

He has 99.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 10, 2012, 16:59:47 PM

You don"t have to c-bet all flops but this one is a c-bet.

He has 99.


If he can have 99 he can have 55-JJ so shoving the turn is decently +EV
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: TheSnapper on May 10, 2012, 17:03:57 PM

3bet pre but no need to make £30 etc, I prefer a bit smaller even though it"s live cash as we are not super deep. You don"t have to CB 100% of flops as the preflop aggressor and I would check here but not necessarily fold.

Personally think calling pre here is a recipe for disaster


In this flop spot, if we check then OR checks and passive player bets, we are in a really tough spot and probably have to fold.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: noble1 on May 10, 2012, 17:11:35 PM
not totally sold on the idea that villain will isolate 2 limpers 100% with small pairs :)

http://www.bluffmagazine.com/magazine/Wait,-Weight-Phil-Galfond-932.htm
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 10, 2012, 18:08:58 PM

not totally sold on the idea that villain will isolate 2 limpers 100% with small pairs :)

http://www.bluffmagazine.com/magazine/Wait,-Weight-Phil-Galfond-932.htm

I will admit the hand did not get shown. That"s what he said he had later, I believe him.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: AAroddersAA on May 10, 2012, 18:16:17 PM


You don"t have to c-bet all flops but this one is a c-bet.

He has 99.


If he can have 99 he can have 55-JJ so shoving the turn is decently +EV

Didn"t actually see the hand as he turned it into a bluff and shoved the turn after a check. I am pretty sure that"s what he had though. Just would not have put him on it at the time, wondered if anybody else could have.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: WYoung83 on May 10, 2012, 20:59:41 PM
 Looks like you were just exploited by being oop. Thats what happens, and thats the reason why i shove turn. As i said before i think his range was weak. U have about 20-30% equity vs his range, and shoving the turn just seems +EV.
Unfortunatly i dont know the maths to back this up. But i know that when u 3 bet, cbet the flop on a dry texture, and barrel turn your percived range is usually strong, you have picked up more outs when Q hits the turn, it almost never improves villians hand, and checking here (unless you are check shoving) is just to exploitable. So just shoving is the best imo. I think also check folding on the turn is just asking to be owned in future vs this villian if he is any good.
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: deanp27 on May 11, 2012, 12:25:16 PM
If I do cbet the flop then it is with intention of bombing most turn cards.

The ideal card came, so definitely dwell jamming this turn as played
Title: Re: What would You Do ??????
Post by: deanp27 on May 11, 2012, 12:26:41 PM
 8c


3bet pre but no need to make £30 etc, I prefer a bit smaller even though it"s live cash as we are not super deep. You don"t have to CB 100% of flops as the preflop aggressor and I would check here but not necessarily fold.

Personally think calling pre here is a recipe for disaster


In this flop spot, if we check then OR checks and passive player bets, we are in a really tough spot and probably have to fold.


Yeah, probably