Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: johnyweeks11 on May 16, 2012, 21:28:05 PM
-
Cash game at Gala leeds - 1 & 1 table, most of the table has been there all night, one table splits and two of us join this game (including me) Couple of big stacks and well known faces. Got some information on my villain who 3 bets me. Generally plays pretty good, he called a 3 bet with 5 4 off and floated on a flop and took it down on the turn. Pretty relaxed, hes munching on some chicken wings as we play the hand.
SB and BB post, straddle to £2 (+1).
I start the hand with £143
Im sat in mid position (+3) and look down at Jd Jh
I raise to £11 - table is pretty active, alot of loose calls, average stack is roughly 130, with 2 big stacks, one with around £600, the other with about £400. In this hand they are UTG +1 and UTG.
One guy comes along for £11, new player, dont have much info on him, literally only played a handful of hands.
UTG - the big stack, asks how much i have behind, and 3 bets to £43. No callers round to me. Im sat in a conservative way, dont want to risk much of my stack.
Obviously i have one guy to act after me. I have two options here i think? i 4bet shuv, or fold? Can i justify flat calling in this position? pretty pointless.
Just after some thoughts from some more experienced players.
-
His range from the straddle is gng to be wider than normal so I"m likely to get it in vs capable villains, but its opponent dependant and depends on various factors such as ur image.
-
dont want to risk much of my stack.
I have two options here i think? i 4bet shuv, or fold?
From those comments it would seem like you already made up your mind. 4th best starting hand though so a difficult spot; I"m far from an experienced cash game player but I think there are many that would shove and hope. Would also be interested to see what the experts say though........
-
disclaimer: I am a bit of an eejit
If anyone asks me what I have behind before he 3 bets 33% of my stack I am shoving his sorry butt - but that"s just me ;D
-
depends on the dynamic but as described and as a fellow defender of the straddle i am dwelling for a while before wagering my stack.
Don"t really care about the person to act behind because i am never flatting.
-
yep - great spot to stick it in his eye
-
Defo never flatting - looks like a good spot to shove.
Pretty relaxed, hes munching on some chicken wings as we play the hand.
This makes it a certain shove.
-
Pretty relaxed, hes munching on some chicken wings as we play the hand.
If he calls your shove and you win, you get the chicken wings as well - they"re in play. This has to come into your thinking. So, your hunger situation has a positive bearing on any decision.
-
Push, push, push. Get called by AK. Cross your fingers and toes :)
-
Yeh i kinda stuck him on AK!
I passed and he didnt show btw, and he ate all the chicken wings!!
Couple hands later i flopped top two and ran into the nuts and lost 50% stack, so resorted to a coffee and toast! (no chicken wings)
-
This looked like a fold to me to be honest AND I don"t think a fold is too terrible at all and YES a case CAN be made for a call.
So let"s have a look
*********************************************************************************************
We have a passive game and we open to £11, this is a good play given the info we have. We get a cold caller and a repop from UTG (who straddled) to £43.
We have JJ (How good is that hand in this spot)
What do we think he has? I don"t know, based on this other than the fact he is apparently a capable player. Have we seen him 3-bet light before? Let"s credit him for being a thinking player and for understanding this is a decent spot to defend the straddle. Say his range is:-
99+ and AQ+
Does this sound reasonable? It is hard to say how often is this a bluff without far more info. If we remove bluffs from his range entirely then our hand is about 50/50 at showdown against the range we have given him so I suppose a shove makes sense from that standpoint. Most of the time the caller will fold here to the shove so not worrying about him (if he calls it is likely to become more profitable for us anyway).
Does our 3-bettor ever call with worse? Lets assume not, so he folds TT and 99 but calls with the rest of his range. We are still 43% against his range if we remove AQ (as he would likely fold that) we go down to 36% (this seems a reasonable assumption to me so far). So his three bet could be
AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo), TT (6 combos), 99 (6 combos), AK (16 combos), AQ (16 Combos) - thats 63 possible hand combo"s
He calls our shove with AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo) and AK (16 Combos) thats 35 possible hand combos
So when we shove we get called about 56% of the time
So we don"t get called 44% of the time. And when we don"t get called we win £67
When we do get called (56% of the time) we are only 36% against his range
So about 18% of time time we get called and win the hand which means we win £199
33% of the time we get called and lose £132
Quick bit of boring math to work out EV
49*67=3283 (won when he folds)
18*199=3582 (won when he calls and loses)
33*132=4356 (lost when he calls and wins)
Profit = around £25 per hand
So shoving is actually very profitable. I doubt flat calling will yield a better return.
*********************************************************************************************
I am wrong - You should shove, it is the most profitable play.
PS - if you put him on AK (which you can"t, that is no way the only hand in his range) you should either shove of leave the game :-)
-
Depends who villain is, would be nice to know a name, but the assumption that he 3bet folds hands like tens etc is probably a bit off, especially if the guy is up on the night so far.
If you folded please don"t say you showed or told the table what you had
-
Depends who villain is, would be nice to know a name, but the assumption that he 3bet folds hands like tens etc is probably a bit off, especially if the guy is up on the night so far.
If you folded please don"t say you showed or told the table what you had
He would probably call with tens and maybe nines and this makes it more profitable for us. The above is the realistic worst case. It shows a jam is the best play even in this case, I didn"t think it would be here but it is so I learned something :-)
-
My general rule in cash games where there is a straddle etc and a fairly active opponent is to get stuck in and I cant see me folding any value hands like jacks in spots like this unless the guy has been a passive nit. Obviously I am not always right though.
Good to know people get something out of PHA threads
-
This looked like a fold to me to be honest AND I don"t think a fold is too terrible at all and YES a case CAN be made for a call.
So let"s have a look
*********************************************************************************************
We have a passive game and we open to £11, this is a good play given the info we have. We get a cold caller and a repop from UTG (who straddled) to £43.
We have JJ (How good is that hand in this spot)
What do we think he has? I don"t know, based on this other than the fact he is apparently a capable player. Have we seen him 3-bet light before? Let"s credit him for being a thinking player and for understanding this is a decent spot to defend the straddle. Say his range is:-
99+ and AQ+
Does this sound reasonable? It is hard to say how often is this a bluff without far more info. If we remove bluffs from his range entirely then our hand is about 50/50 at showdown against the range we have given him so I suppose a shove makes sense from that standpoint. Most of the time the caller will fold here to the shove so not worrying about him (if he calls it is likely to become more profitable for us anyway).
Does our 3-bettor ever call with worse? Lets assume not, so he folds TT and 99 but calls with the rest of his range. We are still 43% against his range if we remove AQ (as he would likely fold that) we go down to 36% (this seems a reasonable assumption to me so far). So his three bet could be
AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo), TT (6 combos), 99 (6 combos), AK (16 combos), AQ (16 Combos) - thats 63 possible hand combo"s
He calls our shove with AA (6 combos), KK (6 combos), QQ (6 combos), JJ (1 combo) and AK (16 Combos) thats 35 possible hand combos
So when we shove we get called about 56% of the time
So we don"t get called 44% of the time. And when we don"t get called we win £67
When we do get called (56% of the time) we are only 36% against his range
So about 18% of time time we get called and win the hand which means we win £199
33% of the time we get called and lose £132
Quick bit of boring math to work out EV
49*67=3283 (won when he folds)
18*199=3582 (won when he calls and loses)
33*132=4356 (lost when he calls and wins)
Profit = around £25 per hand
So shoving is actually very profitable. I doubt flat calling will yield a better return.
*********************************************************************************************
I am wrong - You should shove, it is the most profitable play.
PS - if you put him on AK (which you can"t, that is no way the only hand in his range) you should either shove of leave the game :-)
Careful Steve, you"ll put Noble out of a job! I just wish I could calculate the odds like that on the fly whilst counting my chips at the table!
The alternative version. He was the straddle, and he"s eating chicken wings.. shove.
-
Careful Steve, you"ll put Noble out of a job! I just wish I could calculate the odds like that on the fly whilst counting my chips at the table!
The alternative version. He was the straddle, and he"s eating chicken wings.. shove.
PMSL - not much chance of that. I still have to PM him when trying to work out some of the more complex stuff, and I am just no good at planning exponentially (or maybe I am just not as good as him).
Obviously the calculation is far to complex to do at the table and it assumes a fair bit as well, all of which may not be accurate. It does clearly show the correct play though (I may well have got it wrong myself). I always like to try and understand why something is right or wrong. I actually started out trying to prove everybody in this thread was wrong but ended up with the conclusion that they were right, so it was a worthwhile exercise. By doing this you kind of spot the situations whilst you are playing and become a lot more likely to make the right play. Reading these threads and trying to work out the best play is a very good way to learn.
-
He was the straddle, and he"s eating chicken wings.. shove.
Based on the above plus the fact he"s sat with 400 bbs, along with Gers note that he asked you your stack size plus the maths. Ship it. For me his range is much wider than 99+ AQ+ in this spot and he"s eating chicken wings. You don"t get that kind of live tell online!
Also depends on how you feel about losing £143 if he does have you beat or you get unlucky?
-
Think if you cared about loosing £143 then the stakes are too high for you as it only just about 150 BBs.
me personally never folding here, happy to 4 bet AIPF.
-
Likely range is way wider than 99+ AQ+ : So insta shove
I think if you are going to fold JJ here then I would limp and set mine it.
How happy would you be if everyone folded pre flop?
Great hand - loose table - get them in the middle - give them the decision.
Occasionally you will be behind - often racing - sometimes against smaller pairs - sometimes against peoples" lucky hands - usually J9 (spew) - sometimes you pick up a great pot uncontested (because you are a preceived rock??)
L
-
Likely range is way wider than 99+ AQ+ : So insta shove
I think if you are going to fold JJ here then I would limp and set mine it.
How happy would you be if everyone folded pre flop?
Great hand - loose table - get them in the middle - give them the decision.
Occasionally you will be behind - often racing - sometimes against smaller pairs - sometimes against peoples" lucky hands - usually J9 (spew) - sometimes you pick up a great pot uncontested (because you are a preceived rock??)
L
This.
And if you are afraid of shipping/racing for £143 then deffo just set mine.
-
Likely range is way wider than 99+ AQ+ : So insta shove
I think if you are going to fold JJ here then I would limp and set mine it.
How happy would you be if everyone folded pre flop?
Great hand - loose table - get them in the middle - give them the decision.
Occasionally you will be behind - often racing - sometimes against smaller pairs - sometimes against peoples" lucky hands - usually J9 (spew) - sometimes you pick up a great pot uncontested (because you are a preceived rock??)
L
This.
And if you are afraid of shipping/racing for £143 then don"t play cash.
FYP
-
Dont think ive ever known anyone to set mine with Jacks. This would be pretty terrible imo. This means you would have to put him on QQ+ exactly, and if it comes 10 high flop you are no putting another penny in? Good players would rarely peel here because the stack to pot ratio is just two shallow.
Just re read the op. His bet is the 4th bet because of the straddle. Your shove would be the 5th bet afaik.
-
Dont think ive ever known anyone to set mine with Jacks. This would be pretty terrible imo. This means you would have to put him on QQ+ exactly, and if it comes 10 high flop you are no putting another penny in? Good players would rarely peel here because the stack to pot ratio is just two shallow.
Just re read the op. His bet is the 4th bet because of the straddle. Your shove would be the 5th bet afaik.
I dunno, I don"t think its that clear cut.
I agree we shouldn"t be set mining here but....
The villain"s range is wide so we are most probably in front here and on most flops. If the villain will c bet, and most likely barrel the turn there maybe value in calling with a view to bluff catching a couple of streets or shoving a wet but low flop. Takes balls though...
IDK, I would probably just shove, and then ask for more chips when he hits a small flush on the turn
-
Where they Spicy chicken wings ?