Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: dwh103 on June 02, 2012, 17:14:17 PM
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£1/£1 cash game.
Villain is a young guy, LAG, usually competent. However, has lost about £350 in the last 20 minutes 3-bet folding 60% of his stack on a Q85 vs an opponent who obviously had it, and then getting stacked by the really annoying guy at the table when he called down 3 streets with top pair after being check-raised on the flop. A little less obvious, but was clear to me he was losing again, he doesn"t like to fold in general and is clearly steaming. He"s of the opinion that I"m uber aggressive and capable of making moves. I"ve just doubled up playing a hand quite weirdly (TPTK backdoored the nuts).
He has about £180, I just about cover him.
Folded to me on the button and I raise to £3 with Jd 9c
Villain calls from the SB.
Flop (£7) Kd 10d 8d
Villain checks, I check (Standard c-bet normally, but against this opponent, especially after he"s done a fair bit of money, I"m more concerned with under-repping my hand)
Turn (£7) 7s
Villain bets £5
Hero?
Not just looking for a one line answer, but a plan of action here and on the river, and Villain"s range depending on his actions.
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Raise
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Calling here. If u raise with his mind set let alone any cards he may have, he"s calling any raise and I"m not happy inflating the pot without it being locked. No scared card on river then raising anything he bets.
(don"t play live cash and shy away from commenting normally, but my thoughts anyway!)
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I"m raising here for value and not folding - given your reads
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Raising to about 18 with nuts and 3rd nut flush draw. Blank on river will mean min+ raise to any bet or £30 bet if he checks and hope he follows his calling pattern or lose the plot completely with a shove :D Diamond I"m prob calling river if he bets.
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Based on the above his range is very wide, it is not too far from ATC. We credit the villain with being a good player and he see"s us as aggressive so puts us on a wide range. It is very hard to give him a proper range from the SB, it should be something decent (in theory) as he is playing the hand OOP. The fact he may be tilting negates this somewhat. If I have to give him a range at this point I would say he could have - any pair, below say JJ as he should definitely reraise JJ+. He could have any two broadway including AK, although AK would often reraise he might call. He could also have SC or Ax suited, he should not really have SC in this spot but we think he is tilted. Maybe there are some raggy aces in there as well and hands like Q9. His perceived calling range on the button appears to be huge based on the reads here.
The flop does not change anything and I like the check back as we would HATE to get checked raised here and would have to fold. I would expect him to check most of his range, planning a check/raise.
The turn gives us a strong hand. It is very unlikely he has the flush. At this point in the hand I think I am ahead. His bet out does not tell me much he could be taking a stab at the pot. There is £7 in there right and he has bet £5. I am probably raising for value although if I get 3-bet I probably like it a lot less. The way you have described it above is that our opponent has called down in some marginal spots, not turned into a raising machine. I would therefore raise to £20.
If he calls I think I am ahead as a flush should want to get it in on the turn, so a flush is now a smaller part of his range. If he 3-bets me the situation just became horrible as calling would really commit me to the hand as I would then have to call any river that does not pair the board which I am actually not a fan of doing. I would just fold if he 3-bets here. I doubt he is doing it with the bare Ad. Although that is possible it is unlikely enough that hoping that is what he has is -EV I think.
If he does call We are going to have a pot of £47. The best outcome OTR is he checks I bet £35 as it still looks like I am ahead, he calls and we win.
If he bets out say around the £35 I was going to bet anyway I am just going to call it and expect to be good, raising is too thin here I think.
If he checks raises me OTR I am not sure, his range suddenly changes and the flush is now a much bigger part of it. I probably make a crying call although folding is likely to be a better option.
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Thanks guys, especially Steve for the detailed post!
I"d c-bet against many players, but not against this guy. Not because I don"t like my hand (I"m massive, obviously) but because it could lead to an awkward spot on the turn should I miss.
Also agree with Steve that his range is near impossible to pin down at this stage. Whatever the answer is, it"s pretty wide. The Jd is a pretty key blocker for the high suited cards he could call with. I"d expect to get 3bet from a reasonable hand pre, so if he does have me beat, it"s by a suited connector (I have outs) or an outside chance of Q9 or A2-A7 suited. He may or may not 3bet these hands pre.
And obviously there"s a shedload I"m miles ahead of. So here"s the next action.
Turn (£7) Kd 10d 8d 7s
Villain bets £5
Hero raises to £15
Villain raises to £55
Hero?
The critical problem for me is what range does he put me on? I"ve checked the flop hoping he"d think I"d cbet the hand I have in the event it hits, which it now has. Thinking about it I"m of the opinion my range is relatively polarised here to flush, draw or air - weighted toward the latter. There"s the odd weak made hand in there I guess, but that"s also a small part. Anyway, I think my range looks weak, if this is the case the Villain could be 3betting reasonably wide - am I wrong here about how my range looks? And what do you do from here?
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Did a big response to this on phone yesterday but lost it. Vs a steaming guy losing and chasing losses I would raise turn, call a 3bet and call most river or bet if checked to. Not raising this hand at any point is a mistake against anyone who isn"t a nit imo and raising turn is much easier and less thin than raising river
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If he is 3 betting the turn wide then it may be best to flat and let him bet again on the river. If you 4 bet/jam the turn then he will give up (unless he is really tilted!!) or will call with better.
I"d be playing this hand like I"m ahead all the way. If you are behind, it is unlucky, but even tilted monkeys can flop gin
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Against a tilting LAG then "just" a question of how to get all the money in as quickly as possible ... he could have anything ... but here I would be guessing he has a high diamond Q or A ... and possibly a gutshot or an 8 ... if he has flopped a flush then pretty COLD but his re-raise to £55 makes me doubt that ... it"s a big bet unless a truly micro flush ... even then I think he would chance it.
I would shove it all in and "let" him make the bad call or ... SICK call with the nuts ... (standard)
L
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Thanks guys, having asked some friends of mine they"ve all agreed with the above. I was doubting myself!
Agree with Rob that I"m playing the hand like I"m ahead all the way, and at the time I had Louis" thinking that he wouldn"t 3bet the turn with the made flush as my range is relatively weak. Surely he can"t expect to get too much value.
However with my range polarised a 3bet from him does make sense if he thinks I could be on a combo draw. His range can be uber wide if he thinks I"m weak and setting himself up for a river shove on a blank. Bet sizing made me think this was coming.
So I flatted the £55 as per Rob. He then jams blank river, I call. He shows Qd 6d.
Felt cold decked at the time, and was mulling over whether I could play any different, but I don"t think so.
Thanks again for your input gentlemen.
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There are times I would look to play this smaller with a flush on the board - but that is really minimising both potential gains/losses ...
I played a little bit of £1/£1 yesterday and made a £1 profit!
My best move of the night was when I accidentally through too many chips to call a short stack which went as a min raise inducing two others to fold who both would have beaten me ... such are my current poker talents ...
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There are times I would look to play this smaller with a flush on the board - but that is really minimising both potential gains/losses ...
I played a little bit of £1/£1 yesterday and made a £1 profit!
My best move of the night was when I accidentally through too many chips to call a short stack which went as a min raise inducing two others to fold who both would have beaten me ... such are my current poker talents ...
Agreed. I"ve never been a fan of playing scared vs a potential flush, and certainly not against this specific opponent. Ah well, swings and roundabouts. I"d just like some simple decisions at the moment, keep finding myself in nasty spots - can"t get them all right!
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just a cooler there Dave. His image worked for him there. Against other villains you can get away but not here IMO
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his range is near impossible to pin down at this stage. Whatever the answer is, it"s pretty wide. The Jd is a pretty key blocker for the high suited cards he could call with. I"d expect to get 3bet from a reasonable hand pre, so if he does have me beat, it"s by a suited connector (I have outs) or an outside chance of Q9 or A2-A7 suited. He may or may not 3bet these hands pre.
And obviously there"s a shedload I"m miles ahead of. So here"s the next action.
Turn (£7) Kd 10d 8d 7s
Villain bets £5
Hero raises to £15
Villain raises to £55
Hero?
The critical problem for me is what range does he put me on? I"ve checked the flop hoping he"d think I"d cbet the hand I have in the event it hits, which it now has. Thinking about it I"m of the opinion my range is relatively polarised here to flush, draw or air - weighted toward the latter. There"s the odd weak made hand in there I guess, but that"s also a small part. Anyway, I think my range looks weak, if this is the case the Villain could be 3betting reasonably wide - am I wrong here about how my range looks? And what do you do from here?
Thanks guys, having asked some friends of mine they"ve all agreed with the above. I was doubting myself!
Agree with Rob that I"m playing the hand like I"m ahead all the way, and at the time I had Louis" thinking that he wouldn"t 3bet the turn with the made flush as my range is relatively weak. Surely he can"t expect to get too much value.
However with my range polarised a 3bet from him does make sense if he thinks I could be on a combo draw. with a Ace of diamonds or a smaller made flush or a set or he may think u have hit 2pair His range can be uber wide if he thinks I"m weak and setting himself up for a river shove on a blank. Bet sizing made me think this was coming.
So I flatted the £55 as per Rob. He then jams blank river, I call. He shows Qd 6d.
Felt cold decked at the time, and was mulling over whether I could play any different, but I don"t think so.
Thanks again for your input gentlemen.
with this texture and you holding the Jd its hard to even put him on a hand he turns into a pure bluff here imo, well lets put it this way, its hard to put him on enough % bluffs to warrent only calling the turn 3bet...
You can put villain on a few semi bluffs -
ad1 Jx X3 , Qd Tx , Jx Qd , Kx Qd , Kx Qx X2 , ad1 9x - for 9 combos that all have a decent amount of equity ranging from 8, 12 outs to 13 outs [13/46=28%] there are some top pair hands Kx Qx but i"d err to only thinking villain only 3betting this type at 30% at most [till proven otherwise] add in percentages that he folds xx or only flats certain parts of his range to your re-raise i think the above semi bluffs would be ok at this level to assume, u know villain and this cash level better than i so how much pure air could he have, if any? 20% 30% 40% ? to actually consider the turn call i"d guesstimate u need villain to be pure air bluffing 35% plus and to continue bluffing on the river 40% plus.. Judging by the turn actions and the board texture, there wont be enough blank rivers for villain to continue bluffing that high of a frequency... [unless you thought otherwise at the time]
His made hand range with how the action has gone i"d assume - 88 x3 , 77 x3 , ad1 2d , ad1 3d , ad1 4d , ad1 5d , ad1 6d , ad1 9d , ad1 Jd , 5d 6d , 4d 5d - for 15 combo"s [u"d be in a better position at the time to make a judgement call as to the sets and how much of percentage he might just flat etc etc....
So bare bones u are ahead of 7combo"s with out draws against u, dead to 9combo"s , ahead to the 6 combo"s of sets with out draws against u and villain is dead with 2 combo"s.......
Not hugely +EV to 4bet re-raise jam but its a better option than folding if u put his range in this sort of ball park along with some pure air or himself going nutty with top pair hands, but if u run the calcs he needs to be bluffing air at around 20% along with his semi draws and betting a good amount of river bluffs to favour calling his turn 3bet plus u"d need a feel of his play to guesstimate how often he could check fold a set if a diamond came on the river, check give up on bluffs....
run some EV calcs is my suggestion, i think u"ll be surprised at just how little profit u make and how much u stand to lose in this situation when u break down all the scenarios...
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Thanks noble,
In my mind I"m dead to A2-A7 and Q9 of diamonds. Would expect him to 3bet A9+ pre, especially in his current mindset. I"m 50/50 on him 3betting wider (especially the Aces with wheel kickers).
I have outs vs all suited connectors and suited one-gappers, say 76 down to 43, and 97 down to 53 and I"m ahead of 88 and 77.
Pot is £77 before I make my turn decision to call £40 more. Assume he has £125 back and a river diamond shuts one or both of us down (i.e. neither loses any more money):
Vs "dead" hands (7 combos). Go broke on non-diamond river (-138.75), otherwise lose turn call (-6.36)
Vs smaller flushes (9 combos). Go broke on non-diamond river (-138.75), otherwise win turn pot on diamond river (12.25)
Vs set (6 combos). Go broke on paired board (-37.5), win turn pot on diamond river (12.25), win on blank river (101.25)
Then against his strength-only range my EV is -£77.19. If I give him a wider 3betting pre range (50/50 he 3bets Ax suited) then it"s a little better -£66.47.
Main difference is I"d give him a wider combo-draw range of 99, QJ, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97 and A2-A8, all with a diamond. His turn raise is greater than pot, and to me it"s clearly setting up a river shove - it doesn"t make me feel he"s trying to get value with a made hand.
EV calcs I"ve made (had to bring out Excel now) show that if he 3bets this range on the turn 100% of the time, and bluff jams 0%, my EV against these hands is £55.99. Applying the same logic for Ax hands as above in respect of 3betting pre makes a little positive difference to my EV. If he bluff jams 10% of the time it"s break-even for me to continue from the turn.
If he bluff jams 100% of the time, then Villain needs to have this range or air ~40% of the time for me to break even.
Just going by combos, the ratio of made hands to draws is approx 1:2. If that"s a fair range and we"re assuming an even distribution he"ll need to bluff jam river 41% of the time for me to break even. Realistically his range is possibly a bit tighter, but I do expect him to jam river more often. And for all the numbers there"s a load of assumptions that could be completely wrong - I"ll try and speak to the guy! :D
Having gone through all that I think it"s pretty close either way - less profitable than I thought at the time certainly. Overall I have no major issues given the Villain and the metagame involved.
Finally - your guesstimates were pretty decent - congrats! :)
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from a fresh perspective point of view, questioning your logic about villains distributions [good word that, well used DWH :)] and how un-even they could be possibly? you noted him 3-bet folding 60% of his stack on a Q85 vs an opponent who obviously had it.. does it in your opinion increase the percentages of him playing a made flush fast on this board texture on reflection?
plus factoring being in that grey area of reverse equity, your range [or perceived range] and how u could play it against this villain type [at these levels] on the whole in the long run... see below....
Agree with Rob that I"m playing the hand like I"m ahead all the way, and at the time I had Louis" thinking that he wouldn"t 3bet the turn with the made flush as my range is relatively weak. Surely he can"t expect to get too much value.
However with my range polarised a 3bet from him does make sense if he thinks I could be on a combo draw. His range can be uber wide if he thinks I"m weak and setting himself up for a river shove on a blank. Bet sizing made me think this was coming.
So I flatted the £55 as per Rob. He then jams blank river, I call.
RE - a hand that/which won’t improve versus a suspected draw....
hence the reverse equity grey area question:) and all those possible 46 river cards and the %"s of villains actions with the range u was putting him on, so possibly a re-think on how u play your range [or perceived] through the streets in the future, what tweaks in your ranges and bet sizing could u make [if any] to make this more +EV....?? with your current range and how u played it in this spot, could u ever contemplate folding to the turn 3bet??
if u are seriously ramping up your cash game then i"d suggest u thinking about investing some of your profits in the cardrunnersEV calculator, but only if u are really getting deep on the review side of things..
its a bloody good hand/situation to review and reflect on fella :) [i hope u never play on my cash tables :)]