Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AAroddersAA on June 29, 2012, 09:28:58 AM
-
Hi Guy"s
Hope this makes sense.
What are you doing in this situation and what hand ranges do you need to do it? It"s a spot that pops up quite often in low stakes tournaments.
PokerStars Hand #81775295256: Tournament #569322540, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (200/400) - 2012/06/10 16:20:38 ET
Table "569322540 153" 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: andryxa43 (6100 in chips) Hands: 34 VP$IP: 28 PFR: 13
Seat 2: boss az1 re (42109 in chips) is sitting out Hands: 86 VP$IP: 22 PFR: 9
Seat 3: Tomukas XIII (5535 in chips) Hands: 96 VP$IP: 8 PFR: 7
Seat 4: wingnut16 (17643 in chips) Hands: 133 VP$IP: 33 PFR: 11
Seat 5: sherho (9372 in chips) Hands: 72 VP$IP: 20 PFR: 13
Seat 6: blessed11 (10640 in chips) Hands: 24 VP$IP: 4 PFR: 0
Seat 7: mrpol214 (12345 in chips) Hands: 32 VP$IP: 18 PFR: 18
Seat 8: sbj1000 (9458 in chips) Hands: 116 VP$IP: 14 PFR: 12
Seat 9: 33teetwo33 (4645 in chips) Hands: 140 VP$IP: 21 PFR: 17
andryxa43: posts the ante 50
boss az1 re: posts the ante 50
Tomukas XIII: posts the ante 50
wingnut16: posts the ante 50
sherho: posts the ante 50
blessed11: posts the ante 50
mrpol214: posts the ante 50
sbj1000: posts the ante 50
33teetwo33: posts the ante 50
33teetwo33: posts small blind 200
andryxa43: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33
boss az1 re: folds
Tomukas XIII: folds
wingnut16: calls 400
sherho: folds
blessed11: folds
mrpol214: folds
sbj1000: calls 400
33teetwo33:
-
About 10BB I"m looking to get it in regardless of my cards....I might not even look.
If you really need a range, Ax, KQ - JT/J9
If they all fold, i pick up about a 1/3 of my stack....if they don"t so be it.
-
See a point for shoving but also after this hand you have a full round to find a hand or even better spot
-
I wouldn"t shove blind. The likelihood of making that many limpers fold with a 10xbb shove is marginal. I would need to take a peek in this instance, and the shove would be dependant on my cards.
That said, I wouldn"t need to see much to make the shove viable - suited connectors ( or 1/2/3 gappers), any pair, any broadway, but not a raggy ace. Also need to bear in mind that if it"s a limpy table nearly every hand, you have the button next hand a therefore a whole orbit to find a decent spot.
-
Unless we"re close to the bubble, or there are other ICM considerations, then I"m shoving any pair, most suited connectors and one-gappers, offsuit connectors and Q high or better.
-
Am shoving Ax, all pairs, all broadways, lots of suited connectors. Include other hands like Kx suited dependent on when the blinds are up and how the table has been.
Steve - why no Ace Rag?
-
Steve - why no Ace Rag?
My guess is that he feels that with two limpers in front, any call of our Ax is likely to have us dominated.
-
Steve - why no Ace Rag?
My guess is that he feels that with two limpers in front, any call of our Ax is likely to have us dominated.
It"d be a really unusual range if equity for A2o is lower than 87 suited. Almost always better to get it in with Ax.
-
Steve - why no Ace Rag?
My guess is that he feels that with two limpers in front, any call of our Ax is likely to have us dominated.
It"d be a really unusual range if equity for A2o is lower than 87 suited. Almost always better to get it in with Ax.
Agree, limpers are just as likely to have suited pretty hands, small pairs, or just some random cards than an Ace that dominates us. Would need a pretty specific read to fold any Ace in this spot.
-
As always some good replies.
Any aces is a shove here surely? Would be really interested to understand why Steve disagrees. I think you have a good chance of making them all fold which is why the shoving range is so wide. When you hold the ace it marginally reduces the chance that anybody has a hand that could call. You also always have a chance to hit the ace if you are called.
The hands I am not sure about are small pairs like 22-66 as the most likely hands to limp/call in this spot are some kind of pair. I was wondering if this is where Steve is coming from when he says shoving Ax might not be the best play as well?
My opinion is you take it down often enough to make all pairs and all aces a shove the same with SC"s and broadways.
-
Pondering a suitable response reminded me of our local live tourney field, at one time shallow final table calling ranges were ridiculously tight and you could push 5 bb"s 4-5 times in a row and take a comfortable chiplead. I remember shoving for 11 bb"s with rags and getting a show fold from the BB with AQo, as he "couldnt understand the huge bet" of ~25k.
What range can we profitably shove is hugely dependent on the limpers calling ranges. Not saying it"s the case with Steve but lots of players become over reliant on their hud stats and miss some obvious helpful reads.
In this spot it looks like we have played ~120 hands with both limpers,
wingnut16 (17643 in chips) Hands: 133 VP$IP: 33 PFR: 11 : Small sample but vpip and pfr merge pretty quickly so (assuming they are hands from this tourney and hence early game deepstack play) stats would suggest he"s either a really bad player who limps too much or a decent player seeing lots of flops playing pots ip versus weak opponents and trying to build a stack. Paying close attention will help you easily know which category villain falls into and how likely he is to fold to a ~11 bb jam.
sbj1000 (9458 in chips) Hands: 116 VP$IP: 14 PFR: 12 : Tight aggressive stats mostly choosing to come in for a raise, why not iso raise the early limper? is there an aggro dynamic at the table where over limp trapping with a monster might be correct? Is the player capable of noticing?
-
Shoving wide here seems like spew so I am shoving a value range only, probably 66+ a9+ kj+
-
Steve - why no Ace Rag?
My guess is that he feels that with two limpers in front, any call of our Ax is likely to have us dominated.
It"d be a really unusual range if equity for A2o is lower than 87 suited. Almost always better to get it in with Ax.
If we shove 87s, we are far more likely to have live cards if called.... someone who has limped a hand that dominates 87 (perhaps 89, T8, etc) is far less likely to call than someone who has limped Ax. In my experience in these low buy in tourneys, a limper with Ax is never ever ever folding to a 10x shove from the blinds..... with so many limpers before us, one of them is likely to have Ax, meaning a shove with A2o is going to be crushed a lot of the time.
-
I suspect our equity when called accounts for so little of our total EV that the merits of 87 over A2 is moot. Especially so when you consider the card removal benefit of Ax type hands.
-
Steve - why no Ace Rag?
My guess is that he feels that with two limpers in front, any call of our Ax is likely to have us dominated.
It"d be a really unusual range if equity for A2o is lower than 87 suited. Almost always better to get it in with Ax.
If we shove 87s, we are far more likely to have live cards if called.... someone who has limped a hand that dominates 87 (perhaps 89, T8, etc) is far less likely to call than someone who has limped Ax. In my experience in these low buy in tourneys, a limper with Ax is never ever ever folding to a 10x shove from the blinds..... with so many limpers before us, one of them is likely to have Ax, meaning a shove with A2o is going to be crushed a lot of the time.
What limp-call range would you give them?
If they only call with better Ax and pairs then yes, 87s has greater equity. But as soon as you add even a few broadway hands like KJ etc, Ax increases in value massively as it you can actually end up getting it in ahead. Although you"re "live" with 87s more often you"re still almost guaranteed 30%+ equity with Ax, so you"re never in too bad shape.
For a range of 88-22 and A2+. A2o has 37.68% equity vs 44.46% equity. Adding 3/4 other hands sees it swing in A2o"s favour, so if you think they"re calling with KQ, KJ, KT, QJ etc then it"s a little better to have the Ace.
They"re probably folding anyway, so who cares what you have? ;)
-
If they are bad enough to limp here they are bad enough to fold.
Shove anything playable, bink if needed and get berated in chat :)
-
If they are bad enough to limp here they are bad enough to fold.
Shove anything playable, bink if needed and get berated in chat :)
+1 When you shove Q5o and bink vs KJ, it"s definitely a "weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee" moment to tilt them further.
-
OK everybody seems more than less agreed on the best thing to do here. When does our stack become too big to shove anything we are going to play in this spot?
20BB?
-
Shoving wide here seems like spew so I am shoving a value range only, probably 66+ a9+ kj+
I"m thinking similar line with Dean on this 66+, A10+, K10+ add in some suited connectors and we"re prob good to go. Agree with Steve that
-
depends on the clock aswell. If the blinds gonna double soon then shoving 10bbs extreemly wide here is better than beign forced into open shoving 5bbs in a few hands time.
-
OK everybody seems more than less agreed on the best thing to do here. When does our stack become too big to shove anything we are going to play in this spot?
20BB?
Fold = -250
Shove, opps fold = +1600
Shove, call, lose = -4645
Shove, call, win = +5845
Depends on your assessment of your opponents limp-fold and limp-calling range. Crunched some numbers:
If you"re called 100%, with your stack you need 44.3% equity when called to break even.
50%, 29% equity to break even.
30%, 9% equity to break even.
The true number for me lies around 30-50%, so it"s pretty obvious that shoving any reasonable holding against a calling range is +cEV
A fair long-run equity for a shove is 35-40%. Assuming you"re called 50% of the time, you can profitably shove 16BBs if equity is 35%, and 26BBs if it"s 40%. (Whilst shoving is +EV, there may be better ways to play certain hands, i.e. AA ofc)
Against a calling range of {99-22,AJs-A6s,KTs+,QJs,AJo-A8o,KTo+,QJo} - if this guy is limp-calling 50% it"ll be pretty wide:
22 = 43.20%
A2o = 40.74%
87s = 40.15%
JTo = 38.59%
54s = 37.80%
Q2s = 35.27%
72o = 29.20%
To start making it a -EV play, you"ll need to be called 65-75% of the time.
So in summary, 10-15BBs looks like the answer, becoming marginal as you increase your stack size beyond that. Some of you need to open up your shoving range imo - you will not get many better spots to pick up chips! ;)
-
^^^^^^^^^Great Post
Just checked through my poker tracker for hands where I have raised allin behind limpers.
This month I have made this play in this kind of spot 32 times and been called 13 times (this is a tiny sample but fits in with Dave"s calling range above). The hands that called me are:-
99 - 1 Time
88 - 4 Times
77 - 1 Time
55 - 1 Time
33 - 1 Time
AT - 2 Times
A9 - 1 Time
KQ - 2 Times
Looking at his I would say the range of hands that Dave assigned above is accurate. It is indeed a great spot to pick up chips as you are going to get called 50% of the time tops.
So with the sample over 100 hands we would 50 times pick up the 1850 that is already in the pot (We are SB so have already put 250 in). We then win against that range 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time (assuming we have two random cards).
So we win 1850 50 times = +92500
We Lose 4395 32 times = -140640
We win 6095 18 times = 109710
So if the above range is right and I think it is then shoving with ATC is profitable. You win about 1.5BB per hand.
I would still have some kind of hand requirement here personally. Mark"s is probably good, any two broadway, SC above 76s, Any pair 66-QQ and any Ace. We are about 50/50 with this range Vs what we currently believe the calling range to be.
The smaller pairs still concern me, I was wondering if anybody else has these kinds of hands in their trackers they could have a look at and see what people actually call with and if it fits in with mine.
One question for the people who are saying that shoving with A2 is incorrect or that shoving ATC looks like spew, what range are you putting the limpers on? How is this -EV?
-
Didn"t even think to check my HEM2 - though I find it really difficult to use and buggy, which sucks.
Managed to filter to show shoves over limpers, can"t find an easy way to display hands I"m called by though (any help?) :(
I"ve shoved >8BBs over 1 limper 97 times, been called 35, W$SD 42.9%.
By player yet to act:
AA
KK
TT
99
88
AKo
AQo x3
A9s
A6s
KQo
KJo
KTo
J2s
T9s (I"d only shoved 40 bigs with QQ AND been called by A9s before it got to him)
87o x2
54s
By limper:
AA x3 (people still do this - really?!)
QQ
JJ
88
55
AQo x2
ATs
A9o
A2s
KJo
KTo x2
K6s
QJs
QJo
QTo
J3s
86s
Most of the big hands I"ve been trapped by Villains are playing their hands ridiculously poorly (limping AQo out of a 6BB stack for example). I had also got into the habit of shoving far too loose with stacks too large (a leak I"ve since rectified).
You should still shove with Q2s in Steve"s original example though.
vs 2+ limpers. Shoved 46 times, called 26. W$SD 28% (see the range below I"m only winning 28% against - uber barf!)
By player yet to act:
KK
AKs x2
AQs
AQo x3
AJs
By limper:
QQ
TT x2
99
77 x2
44
22
AQo
ATo
A8s
A2o
KQs
KTo
QJo
Q9o
J9s
J8s
J7s
T6s
97s
64s
43o
Summary: I don"t pick up good hands when there are multiple limpers. I run horrifically to run into hands behind me. And also in that I lost to 6 of the 7 worst hands to limp call me (I needed TT to beat 43o).
I"m actually tilted. These aren"t even micro-stakes tournaments.
-
Didn"t even think to check my HEM2 - though I find it really difficult to use and buggy, which sucks.
Managed to filter to show shoves over limpers, can"t find an easy way to display hands I"m called by though (any help?) :(
In Poker tracker I just filtered raised all-in behind limper"s and selected saw river, seemed to work.
-
Didn"t even think to check my HEM2 - though I find it really difficult to use and buggy, which sucks.
Managed to filter to show shoves over limpers, can"t find an easy way to display hands I"m called by though (any help?) :(
In Poker tracker I just filtered raised all-in behind limper"s and selected saw river, seemed to work.
I can get a list of the applicable hands no problem, which includes my hole cards. But to see any opponent"s hole cards I have to select each individual hand - AFAIK obviously!