Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Santino67 on December 18, 2012, 00:09:21 AM
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Not long at this table, only read I have is that any hand I"ve played, the villain has been tagging along and already helped me build my stack, topping up his as we"ve gone. I"m planning to check raise any bet when this flop comes down, then he plays this one strong. Interested to know what you do here in this spot......and why, if poss.
OMAHA_HI, POT_LIMIT, R5-295620018-495
played at "Bologna" for USD RM from 2012-12-17 23:54 until 2012-12-17 23:55
Seat 3: Santino1967 ($17.86 in chips)
Seat 6: _I AM SINGLE ($9.40 in chips)
Seat 7: Ithdabquth ($10.01 in chips)
Seat 8: DR_MATARELLO ($9.30 in chips)
Seat 9: Amarkes ($9.14 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Santino1967 posts small blind ($0.10), _I AM SINGLE posts big blind ($0.10),
Santino1967 [ Jd, 5s, Jh, Ah ]
PRE-FLOP
Ithdabquth raises to $0.40, DR_MATARELLO folds, Amarkes calls $0.40, Santino1967 calls $0.40, _I AM SINGLE folds.
FLOP [board cards: Qh, 3s, 4h]
Santino1967 checks, Ithdabquth bets $0.70, Amarkes raises to $3.40,
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do i get to know what hand i have?
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do i get to know what hand i have?
Magic stuff Stu, I"m such a numbnut. Consider it sorted :D
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Ah!!
Ohh like that slot. So is mr villain likely to call a re raise here with lesser holdings? (2pair, worse flush draw etc?) it feels like he probably has AQxx or 2 pair kind of hand. If so I am raising with the intention of getting it all in, and I am definately looking to get it in on the turn. Huge drawing hand and a J is also most likely good here too.
Not sure what the other player has, but again, you are drawing massive here and can definately have the hand near enough locked on the turn with slot of cards.
I probably click him back with the intention of it all going in ASAP
If you miss then just sigh and reload.
This is where others tell me I"m rubbish and don"t know what I"m talking about!
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Judging by the raise its very likely he has a set or maybe straight and fd, we have the gutter as well as the flush outs. Would be nicer if he"d made it like 2.5 or 2.7 and then it would feel like we had fold equity on top of our outs. Still think you can"t do too much wrong here getting it in with nut fd and a gutshot for 100 bbs?
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We have 2 ifs outs for straight draws, so that just makes us stronger if he has that hand. More likely is middle or bottom set or a Raggy 2 pair I think,
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Just very quickly ran this through in Odds Oracle.
The flop raiser did just call preflop and on that board 2 pair is less likely than a set. He could have 2 pair but I think we are seeing 44 or QQ a lot more than two pair. Maybe he also has blocker to the flush draw, although again this bet is not saying that too me.
If we give the raiser a range of two pair and set type hands we are about 47%. If we think that he only does this with sets then we are only about 39%. I would be inclinded to say that he has all the sets in his range and Q3 and Q4 so we areprobably about 45% against him. I don"t see too much fold equity here either so it is a straight forward odds calculation. I don"t see many flush draws in his range here but even if he has a few the our EV increases.
Getting the money in on the flop is obviously +EV by the time you have added in a tiny bit of fold equity (them both folding is the but result obv) it"s pretty clear. I assume you can do the calculations yourself as I am to lazy tonight.
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Just very quickly ran this through in Odds Oracle.
The flop raiser did just call preflop and on that board 2 pair is less likely than a set. He could have 2 pair but I think we are seeing 44 or QQ a lot more than two pair. Maybe he also has blocker to the flush draw, although again this bet is not saying that too me.
If we give the raiser a range of two pair and set type hands we are about 47%. If we think that he only does this with sets then we are only about 39%. I would be inclinded to say that he has all the sets in his range and Q3 and Q4 so we areprobably about 45% against him. I don"t see too much fold equity here either so it is a straight forward odds calculation. I don"t see many flush draws in his range here but even if he has a few the our EV increases.
Getting the money in on the flop is obviously +EV by the time you have added in a tiny bit of fold equity (them both folding is the but result obv) it"s pretty clear. I assume you can do the calculations yourself as I am to lazy tonight.
This is where I struggle Steve, especially in PLO. I can generally calculate percentage of my outs to hit but when that clock"s running down and I assume a range of 33, 44 or QQ then I"m also dodging any pair on board into the bargain. I very quickly figured there"s no fold equity against the big raise, he"s calling regardless IMO. The initial small bet on the flop by the other player suggests a weak holding or reasonable draw looking to see another card so I"m not concerned with him at all. I"m not even considering calling this, hit heart on turn could kill any action, missed heart or paired board would probably leave me spewing with a horrid decision. So with my draws it"s either fold or jam.
Total flop return would mean it costs me $8.74 to win the $10.74 pot. Are my odds good enough here, especially against an assumed set?
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I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
Assuming he does this with any two pair combo that he has somehow flopped, it does happen in PLO and sets as well then we will win the pot 47% of the time.
So 53% of the time we lose $8.74 and 47% of the time we win 10.74 assuming he always has either two pair or a set and never folds (which is close to worst case).
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
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Like i said, get your chips in :)
Dont need all this fancy odds calculating malarky, just trust your gut :p
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I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
Assuming he does this with any two pair combo that he has somehow flopped, it does happen in PLO and sets as well then we will win the pot 47% of the time.
So 53% of the time we lose $8.74 and 47% of the time we win 10.74 assuming he always has either two pair or a set and never folds (which is close to worst case).
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
Cheers for that Steve, I"m also taking into consideration that my JJ may give me another 2 outs v 33 or 44 or 2 pairs. Not a massive difference but does anyone think it"s worth taking into account or just to dismiss this coz of the QQ possibility?
Love your reply as well Stu, my gut used to work so well before in these spots..............till i got my gall bladder out :D
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I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
Assuming he does this with any two pair combo that he has somehow flopped, it does happen in PLO and sets as well then we will win the pot 47% of the time.
So 53% of the time we lose $8.74 and 47% of the time we win 10.74 assuming he always has either two pair or a set and never folds (which is close to worst case).
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
Cheers for that Steve, I"m also taking into consideration that my JJ may give me another 2 outs v 33 or 44 or 2 pairs. Not a massive difference but does anyone think it"s worth taking into account or just to dismiss this coz of the QQ possibility?
Love your reply as well Stu, my gut used to work so well before in these spots..............till i got my gall bladder out :D
The odds are calculated by Odds Oracle so will take all of this into account plus any back door draws we have and any redraws he has against us.
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I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
42.09/100 = 0.4209
u divided by 10 rather than 100
so 42 cents per hand going by your figures...
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I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
42.09/100 = 0.4209
u divided by 10 rather than 100
so 42 cents per hand going by your figures...
Thanks for that :) Still massive at stakes I"m playing ;D
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Not long at this table, only read I have is that any hand I"ve played, the villain has been tagging along and already helped me build my stack, topping up his as we"ve gone. I"m planning to check raise any bet when this flop comes down, then he plays this one strong. Interested to know what you do here in this spot......and why, if poss.
OMAHA_HI, POT_LIMIT, R5-295620018-495
played at "Bologna" for USD RM from 2012-12-17 23:54 until 2012-12-17 23:55
Seat 3: Santino1967 ($17.86 in chips)
Seat 6: _I AM SINGLE ($9.40 in chips)
Seat 7: Ithdabquth ($10.01 in chips)
Seat 8: DR_MATARELLO ($9.30 in chips)
Seat 9: Amarkes ($9.14 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Santino1967 posts small blind ($0.10), _I AM SINGLE posts big blind ($0.10),
Santino1967 [ Jd, 5s, Jh, Ah ]
PRE-FLOP
Ithdabquth raises to $0.40, DR_MATARELLO folds, Amarkes calls $0.40, Santino1967 calls $0.40, _I AM SINGLE folds.
FLOP [board cards: Qh, 3s, 4h]
Santino1967 checks, Ithdabquth bets $0.70, Amarkes raises to $3.40,
Sorry gang almost forgot about this but here"s how it went. Figured it was almost a coinflip so jammed it in.
Santino1967 raises to $12.20, Ithdabquth folds, Amarkes calls $8.74 and is all-in.
TURN [board cards: 5d]
RIVER [board cards: 10h]
SHOWDOWN
Santino1967 shows [ Jd, 5s, Jh, Ah ]
Amarkes shows [ 9d, Qs, 2c, Qc ]
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I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
42.09/100 = 0.4209
u divided by 10 rather than 100
so 42 cents per hand going by your figures...
Yeah sorry, 42BB had to be wrong really.
Do you think my range is fair enough for against a standard MS PLO player or should be more more weighted towards sets. I really need to do some work on my PLO game in 2013, it"s really screwed up atm.