Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AAroddersAA on January 03, 2013, 21:16:01 PM
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I find this an interesting situation so it is more that than I am wondering how it should be played. I just like these kinds of thread and find this spot quite worthy of discussion as they tend to come up more in zoom than regular tables. There are a few ways of doing it but interested in how other people think about it. We have no specific reads other than the Poker Tracker Stats. What do you do and why.
If you raise, why and how much?
If you flat, why? Why not raise
If you fold what make you want to fold this spot?
OK, some of you will know the result of this one (Brendan, Stu) so if you post please don"t give it away :-)
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): $37.67 | VP$IP: 21% | PFR 18% | 3-bet 8% | Fold to 3-Bet: 80%
SB: $42.41 | Hands: 60 | | VP$IP 30% | PFR: 28% | 3-Bet 10% | Fold to Steal: 75%
BB: $5.10 | Hands 16 | VP$IP 56% | PFR 25% | 3-bet 0% | Fold to Steal: 100% (but this is only one hand)
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h
fold, fold, fold,
Hero ???
More to follow after we discuss the current spot.
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Number of hands make the stats irrelevant IMO.
I would raise most times and flat on occasion (to mix it up)
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I would never flat here especially in zoom would raise smallish to $0.25 or similar we will have position post flop with not much invested (unless we get reraised).
oh and I love pocket 3"s..... just ask Frank!! :o
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Number of hands make the stats irrelevant IMO.
I would raise most times and flat on occasion (to mix it up)
What do you want to happen when you flat?
What is the plan if you are raised?
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Number of hands make the stats irrelevant IMO.
I would raise most times and flat on occasion (to mix it up)
What do you want to happen when you flat?
What is the plan if you are raised?
The plan is to see a 3 on the flop :)
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I think the best plan would be to steal the blinds. Things don"t always go to plan though and both the blinds call. The good news is we have position and the flop arrives. We now need a new plan, what are we doing and what plans do we have against these players are we making any assumptions about these players.
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold
Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 5h 3c Ah
SB checks, Hero ???
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I think we have to check behind. He has called out of the SB so I think he most liked has QJo+ and maybe a middle PP. If we bet here we are repping the ace there is very little of his range that he can call with OTF. Best to check here and let him catch up a bit me thinks, re evaluating on scary cards, but definately betting any bricks.
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Defo raising with 3s as more often than not you"ll take the blinds. By flatting pre it"s free cards to them and odds against us having a favourable flop.
On the flop with the 3 and 2 hearts. Be interesting as I find myself in this kind of spot often where a flush is on. How many time can we expect them to have the other 2 hearts. Does it matter at this stage of the hand.
Checking gives them a chance to catch up and it what I"d do here for sure as we"ve hit a monster. But do we not allow the heart to come? Or is this not in the think enough to be a concern
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On this flop I would check behind with this monster, I would not worry about much, as Stu has said what hands would he be calling with oop...........5 5?? :D
If this was a freeze out tournament and we had gone to flop I would bet in this situation to protect my set.
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Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
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Bet $0.60 for pure value, villain can call with any Ace, flushdraw, 54, 64, 66-99.
To the check advisors, assume we check, a heart hits on the turn and villain leads for $0.60, can you fold?
So we call that turn bet and the river doesn"t pair the board, villain leads for $1.50 into the $1.90 pot, call or fold?
edit to add: if the flop was say, 3c 5h 5s we now should probably check behind, it is less likely villain holds a hand that can call and our hand is not as vulnerable.
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Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
This is a good point and not just with an Ace, a semi competent player will know that you should cb this type of flop 100% (to rep an Ace) so we are check raised here somewhat often when villain holds any Ace, any draw, pp"rs 66-99 and sometimes complete air,
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Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
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Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
What is your plan then if he does check/raise? You would expect him to make it about $2 I guess.
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Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
And if we check behind, say a blank arrives on the turn and it gets checked to you again -are you checking again?
If they have nothing they"ll probably fold to the first bet, if they have something they"ll probably call a flop bet anyway.
You can"t win a big pot with a big hand unless you put chips in the pot.
If they have nothing or they"re scared off by the ace then it"s just bad luck.
You could be unlucky and they have nothing to call with or you could be unlucky if you let them draw to a bigger hand.
I"d rather be unlucky and win a small pot rather than be unlucky and lose a big pot.
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if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
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if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
Yeah, checking pretty much ensures you cannot win a big pot imo.
Even if Stu is correct (which he may well be) and our opponent has KQ or QJ then even if he hits on the turn how do you think the rest of the hand is going to play out.
I don"t THINK there is a good argument for checking on this flop (I could be wrong here).
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If has a flush draw and hits it, we are unlucky, but I would rather take it slowly on this wet a board and see how it pans out rather than just pump money in and lose more if the board gets worse. A bit nitty I know, but we don"t need to play for stacks on this type of board where we aren"t going to like a lot of turns?
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Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
What is your plan then if he does check/raise? You would expect him to make it about $2 I guess.
If opponent check raises that flop then I"m flatting behind. I believe my hand is ahead here, I have position and villain is helping me to build the pot. Only hand I"m behind to is 55 IMO. If heart drops on turn then re-evaluate.
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Just bet. No need to slow play. Draws and Ax hands call here.
By not betting you lose out on the chance of winning a bigger pot.
Checking is only fine if the stacks are shallower (like in a tournament situation) and the whole stack can be put in in 2 streets rather than 3.
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if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
Why is it way off? I"m asking passively!
Small pair themselves, or Qc Jh+ Ac 10h+ at worse. Less then AQ tho.
Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
And if we check behind, say a blank arrives on the turn and it gets checked to you again -are you checking again?
If they have nothing they"ll probably fold to the first bet, if they have something they"ll probably call a flop bet anyway.
If they check again, then bet and take it down, but at least you"ve given yourself a chance to win a bigger pot?
they ck the flop...by betting you"re winning $0.70 (assuming its not a ck raise)
you ck, giving them a chance to catch up or bluff at it with a blank turn
turn blank ck bet (we are no worse off and win $0.70)
bet, bet - (winning more - gamble on no heart)
bet raise (winning more)
defo raise preflop (not many favourable flops)
when you hit -bingo..... now make our monster pay off.
my only question/arguement to this is how often does he have 2 hearts, and then hits and how often do we miss hitting the fh anyway.
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Good post Waz (also by JonMW) and everybody really. Loving the discussion and think we should try and get more threads of this kind in this section as I know I find them very helpful to my game and I have no doubt other people do as well. Really makes you think which then helps you in the actual game.
So anyway to respond to the points (in my opinion) at this stage of the hand we usually have the best hand. I want to win a big pot and there is an ace on the flop for everybody to see. The only hand I am winning a big pot from is a hand that has an ace in it. The hands that he can defend from the BB here are:-
Pairs between like 66-99. I would be really surprised if TT+ did not 3-bet. Then you have hands in his range like ATos and AJos and most likely A2s-ATs. AQ and AK are almost certain to 3-bet I would assume. Then we have hands like KQ, KJ, JQ and suited connectors. To be honest people call really wide in button vs blind spots in these games. I would actually expect this guy to 3-bet me more than call so that is a bit strange I admit, why would you just flat against a LAGish player who opens every unopened button and c-bets lots, sometimes even double barrels? He should know that I don"t have to have the ace here and can quite easily be raising with air and will cbet this flop almost 100% of the time (he should know that does not mean he 100% does).
I would expect to get called or maybe even raised by plenty of his ace combos and called by a lot of pairs between 66 and JJ. There is a LOT of hand combos in there we are getting value from by betting. If he has nothing to call on the flop the vast majority of time he will have nothing to call with on the turn either. He may try and rep the ace or hit a little piece and call a bet but we will still only win a small pot, not a big one. To win a bigger pot we need to start building it now as hands like AT and some smaller aces may well give us 3 streets of value here. Also by betting the flop the flush draw can give us two streets of value and we control the size of the pot as we are in position. The issue is what does he hit on the turn that means that we are now able to win a big pot off him where we could not do so on the flop. The only thing I can think of is a two when he is holding 22.
Oh the hand gets more interesting as well go along but this stage is still giving us some really good discussion.
For me though having read all the responses it is still a bet at this point. I am still betting 60c. Obviously would love to hear other views.
If has a flush draw and hits it, we are unlucky, but I would rather take it slowly on this wet a board and see how it pans out rather than just pump money in and lose more if the board gets worse. A bit nitty I know, but we don"t need to play for stacks on this type of board where we aren"t going to like a lot of turns?
I agree we don"t want stacks in Stu, but we do want more money in the pot surely we get called by so many hands we beat we just have to bet. We have control of the hand so can probably slow it down later if we feel we need too.
By the way what if the board was:-
c3-8s-Ah
Are you now more or less happy to be pumping money into the pot?
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Pre: 3xing, folding to a short stack 3b (unless it"s a click 3b) and peeling against a big stack 3b. If called will be cbetting 80-90% (prob check/give up on QJT type boards).
Post:
If Villain has:
- Monster (set/2 pair). He"ll call/raise/bet regardless of our actions. With such a narrow range beating us, I don"t even think about it at this stage. Turn may slow down some two pair hands, therefore we should bet.
- Mediocre-Strong (i.e AQ). He will call/raise flop. It is more likely that subsequent cards will hinder rather than encourage action, so we should bet now.
- Mediocre-Weak (weaker Ax, underpairs). He will call/fold flop. If he"s planning on folding flop with this type of hand, he"ll probably fold turn too without improving. Check doesn"t gain us anything outside of allowing underpairs a free shot to draw out and Ax to get away on an unpleasant turn. We should bet now in the hope he"s check/calling.
- Draw. He will call/raise flop. If he"s calling, we obviously want to charge him for the privilege, and if he"s raising, well we"d love to get it in. Obviously we hate life if it goes bet/call and a heart turns. But for now, it"s bet, bet, bet.
- Air. He will fold flop. Fold turn unless unimproved. May take a stab on some turns, with a negligible CR bluff % on the flop. Checking is obviously better here if he"s miles behind, but you gain so little value it"s just not worth it - you may get one street if he bluffs or catches 2nd pair. You give up the chance to get real value for a fair portion of his range.
So this isn"t difficult. Bet, and reasonably big. There would need to be a specific opponent or metagame for a check back to be better here. So 60c is pretty much spot on imo. SB stats would suggest he"s reasonably competent and appropriately aggressive at this level. Probably fair to assume he has some idea about what he"s doing and won"t suddenly be completely random.
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Good post Dave. I think we are ready for the next action tbh I was going to leave it until tomorrow but we have had lots of discussion and the general consensus seems to be bet out strongly. So OK, Here Goes, it get more interesting here imo
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold
Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 5h 3c Ah
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.90, Hero calls ???
OK, what does he have what are you doing what is your plan for future action?
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if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
Why is it way off? I"m asking passively!
Small pair themselves, or Qc Jh+ Ac 10h+ at worse. Less then AQ tho.
So a range of ..
99-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AJs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs, which is a total of 111 combo's allowing for card removal, seems reasonable.
Lets break down how that range hits on the flop of Ah5h3c
55 for a set 3 combo's = 2.7% of villains range
AT & AJ for top pair 24 combos = 21.6% of villains range
66-99 for a pocket pair facing one overcard 24 combos= 21.6% of villains range
22 & 44 for a weak pair and gutshot 12 combos = 10.8% of villains range
QJhh, KJhh & KQhh for a flushdraw 3 combos = 2.7% of villains range
That's a total of 63 combos or a massive 56.7% of villains range that we beat and can reasonably expect to call a flop bet.
55 is a cooler and we will inevitably lose a big pot to that 2.7% of villains range but hey some spots play themselves.
The part of villains range you seem to want to target is......
QJ, KJ & KQ that are not suited and hearts, that is 48 combos = 43.2% of villains range.
Villain will check raise bluff with these hands >0% of the time when we cbet so they do constitute some value.
So that leaves the times we check back the flop so we can extract a single bet when these hands catch a non heart K,Q or J turn. Hardly oozing value!!
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A2-A10. AJ + 55 he would/should be raising preflop.
outside chance of A3 A5.
I would now think no 2 hearts, so comfy flatting, and re-raising any non heart river bet for value
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A2-A10. AJ + 55 he would/should be raising preflop.
outside chance of A3 A5.
I would now think no 2 hearts, so comfy flatting, and re-raising any non heart river bet for value
55 should not raise pre here. DUCY
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A2-A10. AJ + 55 he would/should be raising preflop.
outside chance of A3 A5.
I would now think no 2 hearts, so comfy flatting, and re-raising any non heart river bet for value
55 should not raise pre here. DUCY
???
Why is 55 not a raising hand in BB vs open reg button player?
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A2-A10. AJ + 55 he would/should be raising preflop.
outside chance of A3 A5.
I would now think no 2 hearts, so comfy flatting, and re-raising any non heart river bet for value
55 should not raise pre here. DUCY
???
Why is 55 not a raising hand in BB vs open reg button player?
I will respond to this by PM, just want to see what others say before I say exactly why I think that"s the case. It is kind of the point of the thread in a way.
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55 should not raise pre here. DUCY
???
Why is 55 not a raising hand in BB vs open reg button player?
I will respond to this by PM, just want to see what others say before I say exactly why I think that"s the case. It is kind of the point of the thread in a way.
So we are in the sb 55 facing a wide button open from a 22/20 reg. Btns range is something like.....
22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo ~27% possibly a tad tighter but hey its close enough.
Flatting against this range would be a mistake, if we were 100 bb"s deep (we have less implied odds versus the wider range), so in that instance we now should fold or 3b bluff, so if button folds to 3b"s often enough we will turn a profit just on the 3b alone.
We are 370 bb"s deep here so implied odds are huge and flatting is imho, most likely the more +ev option for 55.
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All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?
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Flop - to cbet or check
assuming villain is at least thinking about what Rodders range is i.e we have a perceived range..
there is a strategy/theory you can use, not only should you look/think about your hand strength versus your oppo"s range but you should also consider what you think your perceived range is and where your actual hand fits within it..
if your actual hand is at the top end of your perceived range then on average your oppo won"t expect it to be as strong, so value betting is the best option mostly..
checking is an option when you think your oppo perceives your range to be stronger than it actually is, which would mean he"d mostly not call with weaker hands but you can get him to call worse or to bluff on later streets..
this is strategy best for level 2 plus type thinkers, given villains stack size and available stats it maybe likely he"s a typical 10nl reg who"s at least thinking about what Rodders may have..
another thing that Bren has touched upon, is what you consider villains pre-flop range to be, Bren has had a go and broken down that range so from an analysis point of view the next step could be to work out the EV of various cbet sizes and how many parts of his range call/raise or react etc...
consider all size bets from 1/3 psb to overbets and see what you come up with...
i hope this gets you thinking :)
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Good post Dave. I think we are ready for the next action tbh I was going to leave it until tomorrow but we have had lots of discussion and the general consensus seems to be bet out strongly. So OK, Here Goes, it get more interesting here imo
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold
Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 5h 3c Ah
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.90, Hero calls ???
OK, what does he have what are you doing what is your plan for future action?
Breaking his range down:
Mediocre-weak or Air: Highly unlikely. Poor players may auto CR something like AQ/AJ, and chance of CR bluff with air is non-zero, but there"s no value in flatting to induce further action. This player"s stats do not suggest this line is likely and a call from the Hero will shut down Villain unless he outdraws us on the turn.
Therefore his range is heavily biased to monsters or a draw. I guess AK is a possibility, but the most unlikely.
Monsters: This includes 55 (3 combinations) and two pair (5 suited combos, 8 unsuited). If he never calls Axo or 53s (I"m assuming he folds 53o), and often slow plays AA, then you"re 3:2 against and this spot becomes really grim. I suspect the AA part at least is unrealistic, so at worse you"re a small favourite against his monster range, which suggests you should 3 bet here for value.
Draws: Worst case scenario is villain holds 64hh in which case you"re 59.8%. Most of the time you"ll have 75% equity. Keep raising.
The weaker end of his monsters should be a little concerned at a flop 3b, but holding bottom set makes top 2 the most likely holding he has. There"s a distinct lack of combo draw possibilities (esp given the Ace is a heart) so his most likely draw will be the bare flush draw. I"d be looking to raise an amount to commit the Villain if he 4bets, or make it easy for me to get significant money in on the turn and river. A pot raise would be to $6.40. If called the pot on the turn is $13.50 and a couple of 2/3 pot bets can get your stack in should you wish. This would be my starting point, though the worse the player the more I"m raising.
If he 4bets I 5bet jam, if he flats I give a greater weighting to a bare flush draw and then barf big time when the inevitable heart comes on the turn (or the board pairs).
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Pesonally never checking this flop would bet three quarters pot or something similar. We need an opponent to have some type of potential with his hand but we"re almost certainly ahead and need to start to build the pot. Not sure what the point is of checking, I just dont get it.
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All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?
No we are in position we"re on the button.
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All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?
No we are in position we"re on the button.
Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!
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All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?
No we are in position we"re on the button.
Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!
we are oop in this scenario where we are discussing the pros and cons of 3b"ing 55 from the sb.
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All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?
No we are in position we"re on the button.
Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!
we are oop in this scenario where we are discussing the pros and cons of 3b"ing 55 from the sb.
Thanks bredan, didnt think i had made that boo-boo :p
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Liking every-bodies contributions to this thread and am impressed by how well the community can understand and discuss these situations. I will try and do respond to Nobles post when I have more time as it is pushing the limits of my brain power *lol*.
The 55 from the SB, just because he should not 3-bet does not mean that he won"t of course, some players might. My opinion is that Brendan nailed it when he said my opponent who is decent will at least have some idea about my range for raising the button. My PFR from the button is 27% and my RFI is 74%. My fold to 3-bet stat is actually exploitable (I already know this) and there is a chance this opponent may pick up on that (most don"t). It actually looks like an ideal spot to 3-bet almost ATC but calling with 55 here is likely to be more +EV against my range. He can win a decent sized pot if he hits a set. If my range was tighter it may become a fold due to reverse implied odds at this level with stack sizes. More on that later in the post.
So we have now been raised and here is where my opinion is likely to differ to a lot of peoples. He has made it $1.90, we are not that unhappy about that but personally I am not fist pumping at this point. If I was 100BB deep I would be trying to get all the money into the pot right now. But I am 350BB deep, this is a very different situation.
The "default" play here would be to make it ~$6. If we do this how do we think our opponent is going to play? I think he will maybe think I have AK in my range but I don"t think I do this with AK to be honest, nor do I think I should be. I can have AA here and it does now not look like I have a flush draw. My range is pretty much narrowed to two pair and sets. I am not exactly at the top of that range either. I am kind of repping AA here. I therefore pretty much hate my life if after my raise to $6 he comes back and make it ~$18 or shoves. I don"t think he is expecting me to fold so I don"t see him doing that with a flush draw (with which I would expect him to call the bet to ~$6). That kind of action is screaming SET to me suddenly that very unlikely 55 or AA is a lot more likely. My current session stats make calling the PFR with AA a decent enough play actually.
I am therefore going to call the raise for two reasons:-
1) I keep his range wide and lots of hands I beat are still in the pot
2) Pot control, I don"t want stacks in the middle and a 700BB pot with this hand
One thing that I am aware of that crossed my mind at the time, could the best play with this hand on this flop be to 3bet/fold? If I think hands like AK, 2 pair and flush draws do call the 3-bet but only sets 4-bet then that may be the nut line?
If I call he is going to bet about $3 on the turn which I can call (assuming no heart) and about $6 on the river which I can again call. This makes the pot about 220bb which is about the right size pot my hand wants to play.
If he then checks on the turn I become much more confident and can bet the turn and if he check to me on the river I can again bet for the same result.
Probably not the way most people would play it and not 100% sure that it is correct (although I am pretty sure it is correct at 10nl Zoom tbh). Think it makes for a good discussion though.
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All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?
No we are in position we"re on the button.
Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!
we are oop in this scenario where we are discussing the pros and cons of 3b"ing 55 from the sb.
Sorry
I was referring to OP will teach me to read the whole thread properly.
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Liking every-bodies contributions to this thread and am impressed by how well the community can understand and discuss these situations. I will try and do respond to Nobles post when I have more time as it is pushing the limits of my brain power *lol*.
The 55 from the SB, just because he should not 3-bet does not mean that he won"t of course, some players might. My opinion is that Brendan nailed it when he said my opponent who is decent will at least have some idea about my range for raising the button. My PFR from the button is 27% and my RFI is 74%. My fold to 3-bet stat is actually exploitable (I already know this) and there is a chance this opponent may pick up on that (most don"t). It actually looks like an ideal spot to 3-bet almost ATC but calling with 55 here is likely to be more +EV against my range. He can win a decent sized pot if he hits a set. If my range was tighter it may become a fold due to reverse implied odds at this level with stack sizes. More on that later in the post.
So we have now been raised and here is where my opinion is likely to differ to a lot of peoples. He has made it $1.90, we are not that unhappy about that but personally I am not fist pumping at this point. If I was 100BB deep I would be trying to get all the money into the pot right now. But I am 350BB deep, this is a very different situation.
The "default" play here would be to make it ~$6. If we do this how do we think our opponent is going to play? I think he will maybe think I have AK in my range but I don"t think I do this with AK to be honest, nor do I think I should be. I can have AA here and it does now not look like I have a flush draw. My range is pretty much narrowed to two pair and sets. I am not exactly at the top of that range either. I am kind of repping AA here. I therefore pretty much hate my life if after my raise to $6 he comes back and make it ~$18 or shoves. I don"t think he is expecting me to fold so I don"t see him doing that with a flush draw (with which I would expect him to call the bet to ~$6). That kind of action is screaming SET to me suddenly that very unlikely 55 or AA is a lot more likely. My current session stats make calling the PFR with AA a decent enough play actually.
I am therefore going to call the raise for two reasons:-
1) I keep his range wide and lots of hands I beat are still in the pot
2) Pot control, I don"t want stacks in the middle and a 700BB pot with this hand
One thing that I am aware of that crossed my mind at the time, could the best play with this hand on this flop be to 3bet/fold? If I think hands like AK, 2 pair and flush draws do call the 3-bet but only sets 4-bet then that may be the nut line?
If I call he is going to bet about $3 on the turn which I can call (assuming no heart) and about $6 on the river which I can again call. This makes the pot about 220bb which is about the right size pot my hand wants to play.
If he then checks on the turn I become much more confident and can bet the turn and if he check to me on the river I can again bet for the same result.
Probably not the way most people would play it and not 100% sure that it is correct (although I am pretty sure it is correct at 10nl Zoom tbh). Think it makes for a good discussion though.
If your opponent will correctly analyse how his range looks and then correctly analyse what your subsequent 3b value range should be in the time allowed, then yes, a call may be better. However I do think you"re overthinking this considerably at 5c/10c Zoom - even if it is correct against this particular player. I would need specific evidence of higher level play from this Villain before I start worrying about this particular level. Have you run this guy through PTR?
In respect of your point 1, there aren"t many hands you"re keeping in. His value CR range is pretty much 2 pair+, a good player may fold A3 (not many combos left as you have 33) and A5 but many, many more will be going broke here. You allow all his draws a free chance to hit, if he has a nut draw he may well call a 3bet on the flop expecting to get your stack if he hits.
However, it does seem to me that your 6th sense was working and flagging up some alarm bells. You wouldn"t mention point 2 or 3b/folding otherwise. I"ve learnt not to underestimate that gut feeling myself, though I"m yet to be convinced calling is better.
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but holding bottom set makes top 2 the most likely holding he has. There"s a distinct lack of combo draw possibilities (esp given the Ace is a heart) so his most likely draw will be the bare flush draw. I"d be looking to raise an amount to commit the Villain if he 4bets, or make it easy for me to get significant money in on the turn and river. A pot raise would be to $6.40. If called the pot on the turn is $13.50 and a couple of 2/3 pot bets can get your stack in should you wish. This would be my starting point, though the worse the player the more I"m raising.
If he 4bets I 5bet jam, if he flats I give a greater weighting to a bare flush draw and then barf big time when the inevitable heart comes on the turn (or the board pairs).
you don"t think with his Laggy stats 30/28 and 10% 3bet [small sample though :)] that he 3bets pre a lot of his Ax hands making top 2 a tad more unlikely DWH? [even worse if he has anything on Rodders regarding his pre fold to 3bet % from the btn]
i dont play 10nl zoom a great deal, but wouldn"t a micro players 4bet flop range this deep be more weighed towards value this deep?
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but holding bottom set makes top 2 the most likely holding he has. There"s a distinct lack of combo draw possibilities (esp given the Ace is a heart) so his most likely draw will be the bare flush draw. I"d be looking to raise an amount to commit the Villain if he 4bets, or make it easy for me to get significant money in on the turn and river. A pot raise would be to $6.40. If called the pot on the turn is $13.50 and a couple of 2/3 pot bets can get your stack in should you wish. This would be my starting point, though the worse the player the more I"m raising.
If he 4bets I 5bet jam, if he flats I give a greater weighting to a bare flush draw and then barf big time when the inevitable heart comes on the turn (or the board pairs).
you don"t think with his Laggy stats 30/28 and 10% 3bet [small sample though :)] that he 3bets pre a lot of his Ax hands making top 2 a tad more unlikely DWH? [even worse if he has anything on Rodders regarding his pre fold to 3bet % from the btn]
i dont play 10nl zoom a great deal, but wouldn"t a micro players 4bet flop range this deep be more weighed towards value this deep?
Yeah, maybe. I hadn"t returned to look at the stats so you have a more than valid point. Perhaps a breakdown of whether he"s 3betting in position or re-stealing may be handy. Depends how he"s defending vs LP raises. Rodders?
His 4bet flop range is almost solely value, not much in the way of nut combo draws he can hold, let alone 4b with.
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Wanted to leave this open for a while to see if there were any further thoughts. I did just call the flop and the turn as below before the river arrived
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold
Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 5h 3c Ah
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.90, Hero calls $1.30
Turn: ($4.50, 2 players) 6d
SB bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90
River: ($10.30, 2 players) As
SB bets $7.20,
Simple call now?
Thoughts on raise/fold line?
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Definitely not raising. He"s heavily weighted towards boats here, can"t see him CR/barrel/barrel vs resistance with a busted flush draw so in the cold light of day it"s probably a fold given I believe his flop CR value range is relatively narrow.
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Simple call now?
Thoughts on raise/fold line?
raise/fold - errr no :) you know the logic for that one me thinks :P
simple call - hmmmm no :) you"ve played it fine to this point imho and given villains aggro stats plus his stack size and his turn bet sizing with no other reads on his tendencies etc , i would call but i wouldn"t be to thrilled about it lol...
if the HUD stats were pointing towards villain being a more passive type i"d find a spew invoking fold maybe 75% of the time and move on..
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Has anyone considered he may have a Louis Manson style 4/2?
Good possibility the way it"s been played ;)
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Simple call now?
Thoughts on raise/fold line?
raise/fold - errr no :) you know the logic for that one me thinks :P
simple call - hmmmm no :) you"ve played it fine to this point imho and given villains aggro stats plus his stack size and his turn bet sizing with no other reads on his tendencies etc , i would call but i wouldn"t be to thrilled about it lol...
if the HUD stats were pointing towards villain being a more passive type i"d find a spew invoking fold maybe 75% of the time and move on..
Don"t you think the sample size is a bit small to give too much weighting to the stats?
I think the chance of being ahead on this hand is too low to call and would reluctantly fold - but I hope it was called because I want to see what the SB actually had :D
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Don"t you think the sample size is a bit small to give too much weighting to the stats?
I think the chance of being ahead on this hand is too low to call and would reluctantly fold - but I hope it was called because I want to see what the SB actually had :D
i"m only accounting for above above avg aggro nature Jon , plus no reads as such from Rodders [tbf having seen 18 hands - Hands: 60 | | VP$IP 30% | PFR: 28% | 3-Bet 10% | Fold to Steal: 75%
i"d thought Rodders would of had some sort of insight into the villains betting lines, quite handy to note in a large player pool where players won"t expect anyone to be noticing that their plays are standardised in a lot of spots [when in ZOOM/RUSH]
ref the the sample size - only 60 hands BUT remember this is based on a avg player pool of 400+ at most times of the day] , so 60 separate random occasions NOT 60 straight hands compounded by the fact that players can immediately go to a new hand by folding..
I think the chance of being ahead on this hand is too low to call and would reluctantly fold - but I hope it was called because I want to see what the SB actually had
i agree villains line is strong but given the lack of reads, the turn bet sizing and to a certain extent his check raise flop sizing i"d suspect villain to VB a wee bit bigger, making this a call..
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Outcome???
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Outcome???
Sorry meant to post it he had 55. Pretty much like how I played the hand though.
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Alyways raising 3x pre smallest stack has 50bb folding pairs unopened in a cash game is a hangable offence!!! On the A53 flop im cbetting 0.25 $ - RuddersJnr