Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: PRThomas on February 04, 2013, 20:30:18 PM
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So we are in the Rendevouz season opener ME, so live setting. 2nd day, 14 left, 11 paid. Sitting on 15x and we get moved tables from one we had been on for past 8 or so levels, so have no reads on majority of table. More to the point, we have no reads on the villain, except age prejudices, ie that he is an older fellow, perhaps 55-60, which I instantly make tighter most of the time. Its 7 handed obv.
He min raises in the HJ, we are in the CO with ad1 Qh. He has us covered, but is himself only around 20x deep.
Can I really range him up so tightly on prejudices and nit fold pre bubble?
Do any of you actually ever flat here with position, and play poker?
Do any of you ever 3bet anything less than a ship?
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Never flatting - it brings the blinds into the hand too often (and possibly the button too), and we"re 4/5 way to the flop, having invested 2/15ths of our stack.
3bet is never anything other than a ship.
Ranging is difficult with zero reads, other than age prejudice.
If you need to min cash, fold. If you"re playing for the win, shove.
I would have to be very needy for a min cash to fold here though - this is such a good hand to shove with, and know that he may call with worse Aces.
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I would shove all day long with 15 bbs with such a wide range in this spot. AQo is obviously way better than i would need.
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Fold
I would rather be first in the pot with QJ than shoving with AQ after a min raise with zero fold equity.
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Fold
I would rather be first in the pot with QJ than shoving with AQ after a min raise with zero fold equity.
Zero fold equity? We have 15bb in a live game, not 5.
Shippety ship unless the spidey-senses tell you to fold. Don"t peel.
Wouldn"t be shoving a whole lot wider though I don"t think
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Against an unknown at this level this has to be a shove (you just can"t flat this shallow). I understand the comment about it being an older gent but everybody is opening a bit wider than normal at this stage and as somebody has already said you might well get called by worse or be in a race and if you are going to win then you have to take races in the right spots and this is a good spot. By shoving we can add more than 20% to our stack if he folds so actually even if he plays perfectly against us and only calls when he is ahead and folds when we are ahead we still make money by shoving.
Against a realistic live calling range in most live tournaments (I am probably making this too tight if anything) you are 50/50 imo.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
513,691,200 games 0.000 secs 102,738,240,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.232% 43.90% 06.34% 225488184 32546754.00 { AQs }
Hand 1: 49.768% 43.43% 06.34% 223109508 32546754.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
You have good fold equity as well so shoving is going to be profitable long term if this range is correct as every time he folds you win extra chips than if he called if that makes sense.
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15 BBs is a really good 3 bet shoving stack (thats why i would ship hands like 97s also). If you are folding AQ here in this spot then that is extremely tight, and i think you would be giving up all that dead money in the middle to often.
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Against an unknown at this level this has to be a shove (you just can"t flat this shallow). I understand the comment about it being an older gent but everybody is opening a bit wider than normal at this stage and as somebody has already said you might well get called by worse or be in a race and if you are going to win then you have to take races in the right spots and this is a good spot. By shoving we can add more than 20% to our stack if he folds so actually even if he plays perfectly against us and only calls when he is ahead and folds when we are ahead we still make money by shoving.
Against a realistic live calling range in most live tournaments (I am probably making this too tight if anything) you are 50/50 imo.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
513,691,200 games 0.000 secs 102,738,240,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.232% 43.90% 06.34% 225488184 32546754.00 { AQs }
Hand 1: 49.768% 43.43% 06.34% 223109508 32546754.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
You have good fold equity as well so shoving is going to be profitable long term if this range is correct as every time he folds you win extra chips than if he called if that makes sense.
Right, I have had enough of all this jibberish being posted and me having no clue what it means. Explain. Immediately.
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rodders I don"t have a problem with your raising range for villain and I agree that it is wrong to flat, but I disagree that there is "good fold equity"
What percentage of that range is going to raise fold to 15 Bigs ?
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rodders I don"t have a problem with your raising range for villain and I agree that it is wrong to flat, but I disagree that there is "good fold equity"
What percentage of that range is going to raise fold to 15 Bigs ?
0% that represents his 3-bet calling range
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I think he can fold a lot of his opening range to a 15 bbs shove, and even if called, we still have a premium hand, its 2013 remember, not 2006
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Personally if I am in the old man"s shoes and raising with his range, I am never folding to the 15X shove.
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Personally if I am in the old man"s shoes and raising with his range, I am never folding to the 15X shove.
Hi Craig
Can you explain this a bit please as to be honest I don"t understand. I know I would be folding quite a bit of my opening range to a 15x shove in this spot, there is really nothing else you can do. What do you think his open range is here? If we have enough info to know that he is only opening VERY tight and is never going to fold then AQ becomes marginal. In reality though we often get called by worse and by hands we are racing with. We are only crushed by premium hands here, are we saying that he is only opening with premiums?
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As a member of the 55-60 demographic let me shed some light on our range for opening a pot from the hijack in this situation.
But first, this is NOT an "old man". 55-60 represents the prime of our lives, the time when our experience allows us to know how to go about things and our age doesn"t prevent us from continuing to do them. 55-60 old? pffftttt!!!!
I"m going to assume that the table generally is competent. I"m also thinking that 20BB may well be pretty close to average?
I"m opening Ax suited, A8o+, any pair, most suited connectors from 89 upwards, suited one gappers from J9 upwards and any two broadway cards. Effectively I"d be raising at least 25% of the time. Possibly as high as 30, (with an above average stack I"d be opening pretty much 100%) but let""s stick with 25% for now.
I"m folding a chunk of that 25% to the shove and although Rodder"s range for calling looks about right, I"d be closer to this without reads or game flow to work on
410,952,960 games 0.037 secs 11,106,836,756 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.736% 36.18% 07.55% 148698360 31035780.00 { AQs }
Hand 1: 56.264% 48.71% 07.55% 200183040 31035780.00 { 99+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
So, 3 times in 4 I fold to the shove and you increase your stack by around 25% with blinds and antes. (assumes that the three players still to act all fold.... we don"t know the distribution of stacks around the table so that may not happen)
Once in 4 you get called and are 43% to double up, plus a bit.
The likely actions of the three players still to act on a 7 handed table have to be considered but I don"t think shoving can be bad here vs me, a 55-60 yr "old man", but it feels close...
Probably Shove>Fold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>flat call
btw - if I do have to fold this time don"t assume that I"m tightening up when I open-shove next time I get this spot...
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Of course I 3 bet jammed it, without too much thinking, will 3 bet ship here basically every time. 100% vs unknowns with 15x. And of course he calls with KK, i"d like to say he snap called, but actually he had a mini dwell, which excited me obviously. Board runs out QQXXK...famoosh. Always a fun run out.
Good to hear the input of others here. Seems a good forum for discussion.
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Personally if I am in the old man"s shoes and raising with his range, I am never folding to the 15X shove.
Hi Craig
Can you explain this a bit please as to be honest I don"t understand. I know I would be folding quite a bit of my opening range to a 15x shove in this spot, there is really nothing else you can do. What do you think his open range is here? If we have enough info to know that he is only opening VERY tight and is never going to fold then AQ becomes marginal. In reality though we often get called by worse and by hands we are racing with. We are only crushed by premium hands here, are we saying that he is only opening with premiums?
Steve I think this is where we have a difference of opinion. It may be that you are statistically right and I am a big fat fish! but to me there is no fold equity raising and then facing a 15x shove.
The oldish :) gentleman is in front too many times or "priced in" to call the AI if behind
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So if you are never raising and then folding to a 15bb shove, then this validates the shove with AQ even more. For example If the other guy had 77s, then AQ will need to see all 5 cards to have the best chance of winning.
I just think its very very standard to shove 15bbs over a hijack open with a wide range vs a random player. And with AQ. WOW if you are thinking of folding.
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I just think its very very standard to shove 15bbs over a hijack open with a wide range vs a random player. And with AQ. WOW if you are thinking of folding.
I played a leg of the Sky tour last year, in one hand the button shoved about 10bb"s and the big blind folded AK (!) face up (!!) leaving herself with a 7bb stack (!!!)
there are a lot of things that are "standard" but there are a lot of players who have very strange ideas about how many chips they need before they think they are short stacked, plus some people have got so hung up on the idea about needing fold equity that they forget that your total equity is also based on the strength of your hand (i.e. if your cards are strong enough then it doesn"t matter if you have zero fold equity).
Just goes to show that you really need some idea about your specific opponent/s, if they"re only playing AK,AA,KK then AQ is junk - but if you"re likely to get at least a coinflip then with stack sizes that low you"d be mad to miss the chance of a double up.
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I just think its very very standard to shove 15bbs over a hijack open with a wide range vs a random player. And with AQ. WOW if you are thinking of folding.
I played a leg of the Sky tour last year, in one hand the button shoved about 10bb"s and the big blind folded AK (!) face up (!!) leaving herself with a 7bb stack (!!!)
there are a lot of things that are "standard" but there are a lot of players who have very strange ideas about how many chips they need before they think they are short stacked, plus some people have got so hung up on the idea about needing fold equity that they forget that your total equity is also based on the strength of your hand (i.e. if your cards are strong enough then it doesn"t matter if you have zero fold equity).
Just goes to show that you really need some idea about your specific opponent/s, if they"re only playing AK,AA,KK then AQ is junk - but if you"re likely to get at least a coinflip then with stack sizes that low you"d be mad to miss the chance of a double up.
I had someone fold KK a while back when I cold 4bet over a raise and a shorty shove
[ ] good fold in the circumstances
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I am not saying that I am statistically correct to fold in this spot, it is not an instafold for me. It is just imo. I could be wrong in my assessment of course. It is just how I see the situation.
But
Knowing you have zero fold equity does not validate the shove. The opposite applies.
Even in Steve"s argument for the shove he is taking into account the amount of times we get a fold, he states "Against a realistic live calling range it is 50/50 imo"
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I had a bit of a play on pokerstove
I think that for a shortstack situation like this that you"re not going to be unhappy with a coinflip
If your opponent will call your all in with roughly any pair or any 2 broadway cards then AQ is roughly 50:50 against his range.
If your opponent will call wider than that range then you"re even stronger.
If your opponent will only call tighter than that range (like the top 5% Steve suggested) then you can take into account your fold equity.
i.e. whatever way you look at it AQ is too strong to fold. Given that you"re too short stacked to play any streets I don"t see any other option than to shove.
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I had a bit of a play on pokerstove
I think that for a shortstack situation like this that you"re not going to be unhappy with a coinflip
If your opponent will call your all in with roughly any pair or any 2 broadway cards then AQ is roughly 50:50 against his range.
If your opponent will call wider than that range then you"re even stronger.
If your opponent will only call tighter than that range (like the top 5% Steve suggested) then you can take into account your fold equity.
i.e. whatever way you look at it AQ is too strong to fold. Given that you"re too short stacked to play any streets I don"t see any other option than to shove.
It"s unlikely that you"re getting called that wide - I posted my"theoretical" range on page 1, 99+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+
which puts AQs at 43% (espoused theory often isn"t matched by theory in practice)
Still don"t hate the shove obviously, but it depends on a decent number of folds to make it +EV which means that utg has to be capable of having a wide enough utg raise range to have a sizable raise fold range. imo.