Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Chipaccrual on March 11, 2013, 10:13:40 AM
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I played the Day 1a of the DTD Grand Prix last night, for those that don"t know the structure, they run a number of Day 1"a both online and live with a £60 buyin. The top 10% carry their chips forward into the live Day 2 this coming Sunday to play out for the £100k guaranteed prizepool.
Last night, 182 runnners started with 20k of chips. Average stack at the end of the night would be just over 200k.
We"re down to 27 players (18 get through, 19th and 20th get £60 tokens).
I"m sat on 170k and have been playing steady poker. Not got involved in too many hands, but have picked up chips at the right times.
It"s my BB and two players (UTG 60k & MP 150k) get into a hand with TT v A8 and the shorter stack (UTG) doubles through by spiking an ace on turn. MP is now down to 90k.
Next hand, my SB, the MP open shoves into the BB he just doubled up. It fold round to me with Ad Jd.
Blinds are 2.5k/5k (I think, or very close to that)
What am I doing with the Ad Jd ?
I have little other info as had moved to the table maybe two orbits before.
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you are folding in a satellite, and calling/going for the win in a MTT
At best you are a 60-40 shot against most of his range (Any pair, Any Broadway, good Aces, any paint-x) and dominating a minority of his range (Ace-x)
It looks tilty though, so I can understand calling,
but 170k at 2-5k should get you to 18th, 80k at 2-5k when you call-lose is pretty marginal and puts you under pressure
Satellite chip preservation. You only need to finish 18th to go through with near enough average stack.
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It"s possible that he is tilting, but what would you risk your stack for. He could have KT or KQ and that makes you favorite to win of course, but are you really going to risk half your stack at this time?
He could have AQ which leaves you in trouble, or a pair of 8"s or something which would make it a coinflip.
So I would definitely fold in this situation.
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oh, you just posted the result elsewhere
Oh Indeed.
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and what did you do?
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Not seen the result elsewhere, but I"m insta-folding in these circumstances 100% of the time.
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oh, you just posted the result elsewhere
Oh Indeed.
LOL, it was quite funny watching two of them posting and chatting about it, clearly not knowing I knew who they were.
From your experience Rich, what is a sensible min stack to take into a Day 2 ?
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From your experience Rich, what is a sensible min stack to take into a Day 2 ?
DAY 2:
- We start at Level 16 of the WSOP main event structure 2500-5000
- Since we play down to 10% on Day 1 and start with 20,000 chips, the average stack will for Day 2 will of course be 200,000 chips
- Some players will have higher than 200k and some lower, but this means a decent average of 40 BB going into Day 2, plenty of play
120,000 and upwards c 25x bb?
If I had less than that in a Day One and intended to have multiple attempts to get to Day Two, I"d be gambling here with AJdd
With 180k and players still to drop, sit tight. In great shape.
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It"s too big a shove to call with AJ imo but AQ is much closer
I suppose it depends what your strat is regarding the number of day 1s you want to play and your target stack but I wouldn"t call in off in a regular mtt and don"t think you should here unless you think he is really wide and would open all his strong hands without shoving
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It"s a fold for me - in this spot, with a reasonably comfortable 34bb, I"m not calling off 14bb with AJ, no matter how tilty the shove might be.
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Fold for me all day long.. But then again I"m a nit!!
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What is the payout structure does everybody who makes day two cash and will that cash cover expenses of going to DTD?
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What is the payout structure does everybody who makes day two cash and will that cash cover expenses of going to DTD?
Yes
For most people, unless they live in Ferndown.
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Folding here, for all the reasions everyone has said!
So I take it you called, BB shoved , you were priced in so called and trebled up :)
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Me personally i would probably fold right now. But i actually think re-shoving would be a better play because its better taking a big stack into day 2 and would be worth having a gamble in this spot. (if you can afford to buy in multiple days then this is a fairly easy call i think).
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Insta-fold for me.
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Live, with reads on whether BB is going to get involved and on how tilty the shove feels, it may be a reshove.
Online, meh - fold. No need to get involved.
Also affected by the availability of a second or third try later in the week.
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What position were you at time of fold? Top 8 or so?
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Contrary to public opinion even I could find a fold here ;D
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Easy pass, albeit annoying, given you know barely anything about Villain. Even easier if you think you can pick up chips with relative ease elsewhere.
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It all depends if you are playing other days.
I have won 3 sats (blatant brag obv.) and therefore have 3 goes, so I guess a re-shove under these circs. is not outrageous, given the huge stack on offer for day 2 if it"s successful. I"m playing tonight, so have to think long and hard if I find a similar spot.
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Oh, and it is £50 + £10 ;)
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Pretty much the same as everyone else.
Definite fold if just the one attempt. If two attempts, i still think a fold, as i have better chances later i think.
3 or more, i re-shove.
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Contrary to public opinion even I could find a fold here ;D
feck ye, you had that button removed in 2007!!!!
What was the result and what do you play as on this site Leigh?
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The result was that I called, the oppo showed Kh 8h and turned a flush.
I was down to 80k, then lost a flip with AT v 33 for another 50k, got the remainder allin against the CL and was totally dominated, and exited in 22nd place.
But most importantly, I learnt a valuable lesson that when in positions towards the end of a tournament, sometimes when you ask the all important question "What would Ger do ?", your answer may be different to his. ;D
I play as some variant of chipaccrual on DTD.
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LOL - just caught up with the GP thread.
Unlucky fella, you playing tonight?
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LOL - just caught up with the GP thread.
Unlucky fella, you playing tonight?
Might do, got a podcast recording booked, but will see how it goes.
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Question (you should all know what it is by now), I know we have limited info but what do you all think his range is here?
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His range doesnt matter its his chip stack that does and his stack dictates a fold in this position. I think i fold pat myself on the back and go to day 2 with a reasonable stack and look to run good.
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Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks
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Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks
No it doesn"t cos should be folding AJ in this particular situation 100% of the time vs his stack size. I explained already why it doesn"t matter, so, rather than just stating it does, perhaps you would like to explain why it does? ::)
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With further thought on this, I"m swinging into the calling camp
Firstly - this is NOT a satellite. We shouldn"t play it as such.
It"s a re-entry MTT which is approaching the bubble but around five eliminations short of the bubble being a factor and we have a touch over average stack.
MP has just lost a hand and his range is likely to have widened considerably given that re-entry options exist.
I know the hand he shoved with and can"t construct a range that includes it but something like any pair, any Ace any two broadway cards feels close
we"re 60/40 vs that and we have to be happy with that surely?
Even if we take out smaller pairs and smaller offsuit aces, and the J10 combos we"re still in the 60/40 range
If you knew for sure that your opponent held Ac Kd
and we had Jh Js we"d call wouldn"t we?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,712,304 games 0.002 secs 856,152,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.746% 42.58% 00.16% 729149 2794.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 57.254% 57.09% 00.16% 977567 2794.00 { JhJs }
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Agree with Dave here (off to lie down in darkened room shortly)
He can just be doing this with alOt of stuff we beat. It is a re entry, so this widens his range somewhat I would imagine.
Why do we need to be scared just because it"s near the end of our day? IMO we are ahead most of the time here (see dave"s post for the details :p ) and have a chance to add a significant amount of chippy fe to our stack and be very comfortable going to day 2 and in a far better position to launch an attack on the proper money going forward.
Stick it all in the middle and next time do a win :)
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I think his range does matter. It certainly is not the snap fold this thread has suggested and is a spot worth real consideration.
There are about 100K in chips out there to be won and it looks like we MIGHT have a good spot to try and win them here. That is what we are trying to assess.
Giving him a range of QQ-66 and any two broadway we are about 56%. I think you can probably add a few other holding we dominate as this looks like a slightly tilty shove to me which is most likely what it is, but let"s go with this range which I don"t think is too far off.
Please tell me if you think there are better ranges we could use (forget what he had it is not relevant)
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,150,668,288 games 0.000 secs 230,133,657,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.981% 52.68% 03.30% 606182224 37971614.00 { AJs }
Hand 1: 44.019% 40.72% 03.30% 468542836 37971614.00 { QQ-66, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
So we have a 55% chance to win 100K in chips but need to gamble 90K of our stack to do it. I actually quite like that risk/reward senario.
I would lean towards a reshove here. The fact the BB is still to act is a minor concern but not a big one, also knowing his stack size would help a little.
The argument for calling is do you think you can accumulate 100K in chips by finding a number of spots better than this more than 56% of the time. In most cases the answer is going to be no I think. This goes back to the question I have asked numerous times in the past about the QQ vs AK early in a tournament. This is a great in game example of the same sort of decision. To be honest the people folding in this spot may well be over-estimating their edge on the game.
The argument for folding is that you want to make day two and there is also fun equity in making day two as you go on a nice little trip to DTD and get to spend the day with some great people playing poker. Some people may also think their edge is larger live than online. Your table may also be playing in such a way you think you can pick up the chips better elsewhere BUT this would be most unusual. Their may also be significant ICM considerations depending on the payout.
I would fold this in a satellite. In this I reshove.
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Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks
No it doesn"t cos should be folding AJ in this particular situation 100% of the time vs his stack size. I explained already why it doesn"t matter, so, rather than just stating it does, perhaps you would like to explain why it does? ::)
Ok so accepted that you would never call a ~19bb shove with AJs and that the range of hands he may do this with is of no concern to you. What do you do in a tournament when you are in the BB with AJs and the SB open shoves 19bbs into you, don"t you think about ranges or even consider calling?
In a generic tournament, this is pretty close to a call because his range is likely to be wide (due to potential tilt factor) and he is unlikely to play premium hands (the hands that crush us) in this manner as he won"t want to miss out on value. If he only did this with top 5% of hands its clearly a fold.
It is still a tournament situation where accumulating chips is a primary concern, we are aiming to win and it is probably not at the point yet where ICM totally takes over our decision making at the expense of cEV. How the particular structure of the Grand Prix affects this is open to debate but i think getting a decent stack for day 2 is probably a good strategy and if we fail we try again. In a satellite it is a clear fold (probably regardless of his range as you state) as staying alive to the money places is our primary concern.
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I think it"s is way too simplistic to say we have hand equity vs his range so its a definite call. ICM values have to be considered as deanp suggests and we need to take into account our overall chip equity in the tournament currently, along with that which it would be if we won and lost and then take account of the "bubble factor", without the full hh with the current chip stacks on the table it"s hard to say whether it"s a call or not but with the information at hand it will be very marginal either way. It is a very interesting hand/situation though.
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I think you"re wrong there Gordon.
We"re well short of ICM considerations here. Day 2 will have at least 150 players and if the guarantee is reached there will be >200.
The prize for surviving to Day 2 is £150 - that"s expenses covered for the trip to play it but not much more in the context of a prize pool guaranteed at £100,000 and probably £22,000 for 1st.
The reward for having an above average stack at the start of Day 2 is greater than the risk here imo, particularly given that I"ve yet to see anyone of the opinion that we"re getting in as an underdog here.
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Aye, I have to confess I thought this was a satellite, hence the "snap fold" suggestion. Now I know it isn"t, I"m inclined to agree with Rodders.
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ICM only really matters when in the money, and strongly weighted toward decisions on the final table i always thought.
I think this really is a borderline call for me, but hopefully i would find the balls to call in this situation. It also depends on how deep your pockets are. If i was going to play every day 1, then this is a bit of a slow roll. If it was my only bullet then i may fold. But having a big stack going into day 2 is a massive advantage. New table draw, can use chips as ammo for growing the stack even more.
His range matters and it is extremely wide, because of the nature of the MTT, and the game flow of hand where he looses a big pot.
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ICM only really matters when in the money, and strongly weighted toward decisions on the final table i always thought.
I think this really is a borderline call for me, but hopefully i would find the balls to call in this situation. It also depends on how deep your pockets are. If i was going to play every day 1, then this is a bit of a slow roll. If it was my only bullet then i may fold. But having a big stack going into day 2 is a massive advantage. New table draw, can use chips as ammo for growing the stack even more.
His range matters and it is extremely wide, because of the nature of the MTT, and the game flow of hand where he looses a big pot.
Sorry ICM values always matter.
In short ICM measures the monetary value of your chips at any given time & during a tournament it is vastly different to a cash game.
Example: in a cash game you have £50 you get it all in AA vs KK, you will win 82% of the time, so your $EV is 82%x£100 i.e. £82. But in a tournament (use 10 man for easy maths) at the start of a £50 tournament you have 1500 chips which are worth £50, but you win the tournament (payout structure 50/30/20) you have 15000 chips but they are only worth £250 not £500, so your chips are actually worth half of what they were originally, so the value of your chips diminishes the more chips you accumulate.
So logic dictates that chips you add to your stack have less value than chips you lose from your stack. We call this the bubble effect.
It"s easy enough here to work out our pot equity which is the amount we need to put into the pot divided by the total pot. I have the exact figures from leigh and this is 91359/199218 = 45.86% so this is our pot equity, but to get our break even pot equity we have to multiply this by the bubble factor.
What is difficult to work out is the "bubble factor" which is the value of our chips if we lose the hand divided by the value of our chips if we win the hand, it is dependant on how many get paid, the payout structure, how many players left, how many chips in play, our stack size the average stack size, etc etc etc. You need a special calculator to work it out but we can use some rule of thumbs here.
Now since the value of our lost chips is more than the value of any chips we gain the "bubble factor" is always greater than 1.
For the purposes of this example I am going to assume 1.2 (it will not be far away from this with 15% of the field left and will probably be slighty more but lets be conservative) and also I"ll use use Rodders Hand equity figure of 52.68% for a winning hand.
So now we multiply our pot equity by the bubble factor i.e. 45.86%x1.2 = 55.03%, so to just break even in a tournament we need to win the hand 55.03% of the time not 45.86%. This is our break even equity.
Now we compare our hand equity figure of 52.68% to our break even equity of 55.03%, so although it is close it is a fold.
I hope that made sense. :o :o :o
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This is also why re-entering a tournament is such poor value. Because basically you are starting a £50 tournament with chips worth £50 but you have paid £100 for those chips. Because of this decisions while playing shouldn"t be made on the basis of "it"s ok if I"m wrong I can always re-enter" we should always be trying to make the optimum decision.
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Excellent post Gordon
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That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
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That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie. 8)
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That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie. 8)
so we"re playing to make a min cash?
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That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie. 8)
so we"re playing to make a min cash?
Where have I said that? I"ll help you David I haven"t.
Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time?
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I understand the post, and it was a really nice read, but with regards to this comment
"Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time"?
I think Game theory optimal can be adjusted with the nature of this style of MTT. Optimum play in this situation should be looking to increase stack when a guy seem like he can be tilt shoveing and AJs is a good reason to re-ship.
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That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones
I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie. 8)
so we"re playing to make a min cash?
Where have I said that? I"ll help you David I haven"t.
Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time?
Firstly some good points in this thread need to post more on this board. The debate is really great. Some of you people need to post more in the section imo :-)
I see where Gordon is coming from here (the bubble factor is a decent point but whilst ICM is always a factor is should not always be the deciding factor, I agree the argument is mathematically sound btw).
I still feel you need to take into account how much of an edge you have over the field and if you are more likely to be able to win these chips elsewhere, I think early in the tournament this is more important than ICM and is currently still a more important consideration. For me the pots odds and the fact we are in what should be a pretty tough field dictate a call (just). Also the figure of 52% is not taking split pots into account, I am not an expert on ICM tbh but thought that we should be using the overall win % figure that takes account of split pots (I could easily be wrong on this it is certainly not one of my areas of expertise).
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Firstly some good points in this thread need to post more on this board. The debate is really great. Some of you people need to post more in the section imo :-)
I see where Gordon is coming from here (the bubble factor is a decent point but whilst ICM is always a factor is should not always be the deciding factor, I agree the argument is mathematically sound btw).
I still feel you need to take into account how much of an edge you have over the field and if you are more likely to be able to win these chips elsewhere, I think early in the tournament this is more important than ICM and is currently still a more important consideration. For me the pots odds and the fact we are in what should be a pretty tough field dictate a call (just). Also the figure of 52% is not taking split pots into account, I am not an expert on ICM tbh but thought that we should be using the overall win % figure that takes account of split pots (I could easily be wrong on this it is certainly not one of my areas of expertise).
I agree its not the overriding factor, but neither should assuming the guy is tilt shoving. How many times do we lose or see someone lose a hand only to open shove a monster the very next hand? I see it happen all the time and people invariably pay them off because they assume he is tilting. Also if you feel you have an edge over the field then you definitely do not need to risk over half your stack making marginal calls like this.
I think you use the winning % figure cos the split pot percentage is neutral, but I may be corrected.
At the end of the day it"s a very close and marginal call/fold which is probably why we are discussing it, but for me it"s too marginal and a long term losing call.
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I understand the post, and it was a really nice read, but with regards to this comment
"Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time"?
I think Game theory optimal can be adjusted with the nature of this style of MTT. Optimum play in this situation should be looking to increase stack when a guy seem like he can be tilt shoveing and AJs is a good reason to re-ship.
^^^^^^^see my post above reference "tilt shoving", also we have taken into account that this is a wider than usual shove and the maths still says I"m out.
p.s. A lot of players think only about chip accumulation in MTT"s, but it"s also about chip preservation. i suppose the secret is getting the balance correct. ;)
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All this "equity" "ICM" "game theory" Pap has got me narked. I just said the following to someone on favebook.
I dont care what the "equity" is, i think he is steaming, i have AJ. I have 20bb if i call and lose, i have about 60bb and a decent stack to attack the next day with if i do a win.
i dont need a pokeroven to tell me what to do.
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I dont care what the "equity" is, i think he is steaming, i have AJ. I have 20bb if i call and lose, i have about 60bb and a decent stack to attack the next day with if i do a win.
If i had 20 bigs and an M of 9-10 if i called and lost then I probably call but we don"t we have 15-16 if we lose and an M of only 7. As I said it"s a close run thing between the fold or call. Also if we all played the same way it would be a boring game. :)
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There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c 801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........
Range to call ?
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I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me. ;)
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I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me. ;)
So his range is??
And now you"re ready to gamble?????
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I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me. ;)
So his range is??
And now you"re ready to gamble?????
It"s a COMPLETELY different scenario, so not sure what point you are trying to make.
But since you ask we can"t put him on a range, as we do not have enough information. If you can put someone on a range of hands after playing only 24 hands then you are a far better player than I will ever be. Here with this stack, since I set myself a minimum 30xBB stack target to go to day 2 with, as it is not worth the expense of travel etc with any less AND a free re-entry, yes I am looking for a spot to gamble, so it"s more about what I am prepared to gamble with not what I guess his hand to be cos thats all it will be a guess.
p.s. Also important that he covers me, cos i don"t want to be left with a ****ty small stack and unable to use my re-entry cos I am left with 5 bigs behind or something. ;)
p.p.s. You seem to be implyingt that I am unable or unwilling to gamble. I disagree, I just choose to gamble when the situation requires it. The original situation posted is not a situation where we need to gamble imho.
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Tough spot, it looks like AK, AQ maybe JJ or a mid pair he doesnt want to see a flop with,you have 22 bigs but you also have 2 more goes so that may skew decision.
I would be surprised if he has AA or KK here, wouldn"t play either of theses hands like this surely.
Only 24 hands on villain, stats can"t be relied upon here but does indicate a decent holding.
12 months ago I fold,these days 77+AK, take the flip if he has the usual win the race, hit a set if he has an overpair, if
you don"t bink have another go.
AQ insta fold, hate calling off with AQ in this spot so many times dominated.
Gotta win them flips, or even 94% favourites after flop in previous games, not bitter just saying.
Going into Day 2 with 20 bigs compared to 30 plus is massive makes Day 2 easier to play and your not hoping for a double up early or an early trip home.
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I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me. ;)
So his range is??
And now you"re ready to gamble?????
It"s a COMPLETELY different scenario, so not sure what point you are trying to make.
But since you ask we can"t put him on a range, as we do not have enough information. If you can put someone on a range of hands after playing only 24 hands then you are a far better player than I will ever be. Here with this stack, since I set myself a minimum 30xBB stack target to go to day 2 with, as it is not worth the expense of travel etc with any less AND a free re-entry, yes I am looking for a spot to gamble, so it"s more about what I am prepared to gamble with not what I guess his hand to be cos thats all it will be a guess.
p.s. Also important that he covers me, cos i don"t want to be left with a ****ty small stack and unable to use my re-entry cos I am left with 5 bigs behind or something. ;)
p.p.s. You seem to be implyingt that I am unable or unwilling to gamble. I disagree, I just choose to gamble when the situation requires it. The original situation posted is not a situation where we need to gamble imho.
OK - the scenario is different. Closer to the end of the day and bigger stacks involved, but my point was that you justify the fold earlier using GTO and yet you are calling wide here because you think you want to gamble?
I"m not gambling here. I"m looking for spots to pick up some chips with pressure on the shorter stacks and anticipating that they will reshove lighter than usual given the re-entry opportunity, but I"m not going to take big gambles.
Probably worth noting that the blinds when Day 2 starts will be 2500/5000/500 regardless of how much longer it takes to get down to the 10% and that going into Day 2 with 130k gives us a chance of making decent progress.
BUT - I posted this hand as I raged about it"s result having exited the tourney, not to see if I"d made an error in it.
Unless anyone here can make an argument for open-shoving 26BB utg+1 with KK?
50p has gone into the Comic Relief tin
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Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
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Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
I think for me its probably 99+ and AQ+
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Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj (http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj) is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
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There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c 801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........
Range to call ?
Maybe Ak TT+ but also important to stress that you shouldn"t be opening that much wider with the stack sizes behind you and a 24bb stack imo
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Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj (http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj) is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark - I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77
In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?
-
There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c 801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........
Range to call ?
Maybe Ak TT+ but also important to stress that you shouldn"t be opening that much wider with the stack sizes behind you and a 24bb stack imo
meh - ignore this hand. I"ll put the 50p in the Comic Relief tin. He shipped 55, I snapped with KK.
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Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj (http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj) is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark - I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77
In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?
How wide do you think David? 15%? 20%? I suspect that even then, from a mathematical ICM standpoint, a call would still be relatively marginal (Hope Gordon will do the math on that though)
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Without being able to do all that maths stuff, surrrrrrrrely he is pushing ALOT of hands here? I would expect up see a lot of SC"s and all broadway hands in his range, as well as a lot of total crap, there is a big chance he wants to just re enter and is trying to spin up or get out.
I don"t even think its that close of a decision for me, I call it, am happy I am ahead and hope to hold.
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Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I resent the implication that he is Scottish!!! ;D ;D ;D
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meh - ignore this hand. I"ll put the 50p in the Comic Relief tin. He shipped 55, I snapped with KK.
Even a nit like me is calling with KK. ;D ;D ;D
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Quick question Gordon, you say your folding AJ but probably calling AQ? Isn"t AQ really going to play pretty much the same as AJ here? We still expect to be flipping some and 60/40 a lot and? If AJ is a fold her i can"t see how calling off with AQ can really be that much better?
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Quick question Gordon, you say your folding AJ but probably calling AQ? Isn"t AQ really going to play pretty much the same as AJ here? We still expect to be flipping some and 60/40 a lot and? If AJ is a fold her i can"t see how calling off with AQ can really be that much better?
As I said AJ is marginal and AQ although probably a call it is at the bottom of my range. Whilst it plays similar vs many hands in his range, it dominates a couple of additional hands that are more likely to be at the top end of villains range like KQ for example and means we are flipping instead of dominated vs JJ. By this i mean yes AJ plays pretty much the same vs 9T as AQ but he is more likely to be shoving a hand we dominate like KQ even though both hands are in his range.
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I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
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Best thread of the year so far
btw - does anybody think we could actually be behind his range here, I have been assuming everybody agrees we are ahead in this spot? I have not played one of these so how do they play?
Constructing the range is what hand analysis is all about and getting the correct one pretty much tells us if a call is +cEV or not. Yes we can add in ICM too but at this point (and in most spots) I am going with cEV over ICM (ICM shows why you should not gamble large numbers of chips in marginal spots, how marginal is this spot though?). Maybe I spend too much time playing cash lol.
We have construct our range without a lot of info here, so we have to go to a lot of "default thinking" (I just that term up by the way) so I would be thinking:-
1) It looks like a tilt shove, therefore that is probably what it is. Yes he could know that and turn over AA but in poker things are usually exactly as they seem. This looks like a tilt shove and most of the time it is. I would widen his range here.
2) I don"t think he does this with AA or KK much so I would lessen the amount of combos of those hands in his range.
3) It looks a LOT like something he would do with AK and maybe a hand like 88 or 99.
I don"t believe a player in this spot is shoving as tight as 11% (although I am not sure why he shoved tbh I think with that stack you can make a standard 2.2x raise).
I therefore put him on something like 77+ and KJs+ and AT+
I am therefore calling with AJo+ and TT+ I think we can actually remove the AA and KK and maybe even some QQ combos from his range which make a difference as a lot of the hands that dominate us are not actually there. I also think there maybe one or two more that we do dominate, Axs in there
I call this with AJ+ and TT+, this may change if I had more info on the player of course
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I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
Good point BUT
Whilst you should not assume it is a tilt shove you have to give credit to the fact it really looks like one and it is far more likely that it is than he has picked up a big hand. You factor this in when constructing your calling range.
Yes of course you should shove if you get AA after losing a hand like that as it looks like a tilt shove and yes people will and should (maybe) snap you off with AJ, that is why you do it.
But as I said above far more often it turns out to be exactly what it looks like a tilt shove.
Please post in more threads in this section.
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I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
Absolutely 100% this. Only Leigh can confirm. There is no other evidence to suggest he"s pushing wider than a standard range (which may be a tiny bit wider than 11%, not wide enough to make calling a viable option unless a tiny +tive ROI is your aim).
It"s an 18BB shove so Villain isn"t even short.
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I don"t know the guy, but he posts on another forum. He"d been quite active in the chatbox talking to an observer about what was a good stack for Day 2 etc etc.
Here"s a quote from other forum after the event (Not that it has much relevance to this discussion) :-
I jus won biggish pot outplayin someone with K8 sooooted
Yeah, wp ;)
;whistle;
I thought it was a bit of a tilty shove into the BB of the guy who had just spiked the ace against you, so thought my Ad Jd was in good shape. Hadn"t planned on you turning the flush.
Good luck on Sunday.
Exactly as u said it. was defo tilt. If my 10"s held I was sailing thru so I prob dont play another hand. Unfortunate it was u on the end of my rage ;grr;. I wud of defo called with AJ sooooted in ur spot. Ty for being gud sport about the suckout and GL urself :cheers:
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Best thread of the year so far
Should secure my APAT Awards Nomination for 2014 then ::)
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Agreeing that this is a great thread.. and with Rodders that people posting on here should post more often in the strategies section..
Best thread of the year so far
Should secure my APAT Awards Nomination for 2014 then ::)
p.s doesnt this thread fall under this season though Leigh.. :P x
p.p.s with regards to the hand I"m a dwell / sigh / FML style fold x
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p.s doesnt this thread fall under this season though Leigh.. :P x
Good Point. STOP THE ENGRAVING !!!!!!!!!!!!
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I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
Good point BUT
Whilst you should not assume it is a tilt shove you have to give credit to the fact it really looks like one and it is far more likely that it is than he has picked up a big hand. You factor this in when constructing your calling range.
Yes of course you should shove if you get AA after losing a hand like that as it looks like a tilt shove and yes people will and should (maybe) snap you off with AJ, that is why you do it.
But as I said above far more often it turns out to be exactly what it looks like a tilt shove.
Please post in more threads in this section.
Sure and thats why we have widened his possible range. But some people getting carried away saying he is almost certainly shoving any two cards, which is rarely the case with that size of stack.
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Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj (http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj) is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark - I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77
In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?
How wide do you think David? 15%? 20%? I suspect that even then, from a mathematical ICM standpoint, a call would still be relatively marginal (Hope Gordon will do the math on that though)
15% is erring on the side of caution imo
but this is what it looks like vs that 15%
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
279,105,552 games 0.039 secs 7,156,552,615 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.930% 42.38% 03.55% 118282669 9911260.50 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 54.070% 50.52% 03.55% 141000362 9911260.50 { AdJd }
My over-riding point is that I don"t believe we"re in a good enough position to be in chip-preservation mode and should be taking these spots. I"m aiming for 250k to take to day 2. I might slow down when there"s maybe two more to be eliminated.
If you showed me that it"s exactly 50/50 I"d take it.
Wouldn"t do the same on the FT bubble, but that"s nowhere near where we are.
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You don"t think 35 bigs with an increased 45 clock is enough to take back for day 2?
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You don"t think 35 bigs with an increased 45 clock is enough to take back for day 2?
30 minute clock till the Final Table and, no, I want enough to be able to take on the early shoves (as appropriate) without getting down to being in shove fold mode myself.
I"m playing Day 1 again this evening and don"t get me wrong, I"ll be pleased to go into Day 2 with anything over 150k, but, 250+ has to be the target.
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You don"t think 35 bigs with an increased 45 clock is enough to take back for day 2?
30 minute clock till the Final Table and, no, I want enough to be able to take on the early shoves (as appropriate) without getting down to being in shove fold mode myself.
I"m playing Day 1 again this evening and don"t get me wrong, I"ll be pleased to go into Day 2 with anything over 150k, but, 250+ has to be the target.
Its advertised as 45 min clock for day 2.
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No its advertised as Day 2 30/45, which means 45 min for the final only
http://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/news.php?id=2313
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Unlucky Leigh, hope I don"t get ad1 Jd when I play this afternoon :(
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No its advertised as Day 2 30/45, which means 45 min for the final only
http://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/news.php?id=2313
Then I suggest they change this because it is incorrect!!!
http://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/events/grand-prix
(http://i474.photobucket.com/albums/rr109/GiMac/DTDIncorrectwebpage_zpsfa17a094.jpg)
(http://i474.photobucket.com/albums/rr109/GiMac/DTDIncorrectwebpage1_zps5fb9c39f.png)
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get 2 outered on river then I "Tilt Shove" this hand.
All you AJ guys just paid me off!!! Thanks lol
PokerStars Hand #95776091770: Tournament #2013004043, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2013/03/19 0:06:46 WET [2013/03/18 20:06:46 ET]
Table "2013004043 778" 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tonnzza (5370 in chips)
Seat 2: PBaganha (8032 in chips)
Seat 3: GiMac (3988 in chips)
Seat 4: TameOne420 (2251 in chips)
Seat 5: Nikita4499 (7444 in chips)
Seat 6: namara2752 (7915 in chips)
Nikita4499: posts small blind 20
namara2752: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GiMac [Kh Kd]
GiMac said, "lol joke"
Tonnzza: folds
PBaganha: raises 100 to 140
GiMac: raises 3848 to 3988 and is all-in
TameOne420: calls 2251 and is all-in
Nikita4499: folds
namara2752: folds
PBaganha: calls 3848
*** FLOP *** [2c 5c 6s]
*** TURN *** [2c 5c 6s] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2c 5c 6s Jc] [3h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PBaganha: shows [Kc Ah] (high card Ace)
GiMac: shows [Kh Kd] (a pair of Kings)
GiMac collected 3474 from side pot
TameOne420: shows [Ac Js] (a pair of Jacks)
GiMac collected 6813 from main pot
TameOne420 finished the tournament in 8531st place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10287 Main pot 6813. Side pot 3474. | Rake 0
Board [2c 5c 6s Jc 3h]
Seat 1: Tonnzza folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 2: PBaganha showed [Kc Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 3: GiMac showed [Kh Kd] and won (10287) with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: TameOne420 (button) showed [Ac Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: Nikita4499 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: namara2752 (big blind) folded before Flop
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different in so many many ways
nh though
easy fold for AJ but pretty easy call for AK
Would we see it if they spiked the ace? :-):-)
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Don"t think this spot is the same tbh mate.
Even if it was it is not really relevant, we know that there are times AJ is behind but we are pretty sure it is ahead of his range for shoving in the original post (I get the impression everybody agrees with this but tell me if you think I am wrong as this changes things massively). We know that he can wake up with KK or AA but it is very unlikely. Your spot is different as it is a shove over a raise making getting paid off much more likely, cold calling with AJ there is bad as even if you were tilted the OR has still made a raise from EP and can call it off a lot. I doubt you would have open shoved KK right?
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different in so many many ways
nh though
easy fold for AJ but pretty easy call for AK
Would we see it if they spiked the ace? :-):-)
Of course the situation isn"t the same, just making tye point that because someone open over shoves just after losing a hand doesn"t nexessarily mean they are always on tilt.
And david the outcome is irrelevant, if he spikes his A that"s just unlucky but we outplayed him. So yes you would have seen the hand. Sigh.
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easy fold for AJ but pretty easy call for AK
100% called cos he thought I was on tilt. ;)
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Don"t think this spot is the same tbh mate.
Even if it was it is not really relevant, we know that there are times AJ is behind but we are pretty sure it is ahead of his range for shoving in the original post (I get the impression everybody agrees with this but tell me if you think I am wrong as this changes things massively). We know that he can wake up with KK or AA but it is very unlikely. Your spot is different as it is a shove over a raise making getting paid off much more likely, cold calling with AJ there is bad as even if you were tilted the OR has still made a raise from EP and can call it off a lot. I doubt you would have open shoved KK right?
I probably would as ideal spot to look like I am tilting and induce a light call from someone holding a marginal hand like AJ.
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easy fold for AJ but pretty easy call for AK
100% called cos he thought I was on tilt. ;)
Yes but it is a bad call, the one in the original post may not be.
This is an epic thread and has outgrown the board and needs discussion over a pint at DTD imo
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Yes but it is a bad call, the one in the original post may not be.
Original one is imho. ;)
This is an epic thread and has outgrown the board and needs discussion over a pint at DTD imo
Deal!!! 8) 8) 8)
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He 100% calls because he had a premium hand. Not because he thinks you are tilt shoving
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probably the $3rebuy so i"d call with any bag of spanners
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He 100% calls because he had a premium hand. Not because he thinks you are tilt shoving
Not sure AJ can ever be called a premium hand to be honest. But then people do value hands differently. ;D ;D ;D
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probably the $3rebuy so i"d call with any bag of spanners
micromillions #43 6-max freezeout 5k starting stack 15minute clock level 3.